Polling extended to accomodate larger than expected Sunni turnout. http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article333403.ece
Good show. Is the the biggest news story of the year or what? I would say the tsunami of course but didn't that happen at the tail-end of 2004?
I heard the same story. They're not giving up the fatwa against US troops and overt US sympathizers, but they say they won't attack ordinary Iraqis. Listen, democracy is good. Sunnis participating in democracy is good. No serious violence is very good. Very little bad news out of Iraq at this point. So we can bring the troops home now, right? Isn't today the ideal day for Bush to just declare victory and pull out all 140,000 soldiers, just in time for Christmas? Who cares if there's violence tomorrow, because if we get everyone out by, say, 11 pm, then it's just internal squabbling, not our fault anymore. We've done everything we can.
Thanks for that. You also jogged my memory of a question I thought about this week. If a bunch of insurgent groups are supporting the election, but still have a fatwa against the US, doesn't it follow that reducing US troop levels will reduce the intensity of the insurgency? (Basically repeating your thoughts there, Obie.)
(Apologizing in advance....) Greatest understatement in Bigsoccer history! (Sorry, couldn't resist! )
I should rep this... Only because both posts made me laugh out loud! But seriously Revolt...at some point, you need to be fair on the Iraq issue. Look, if I concede to you (for argument sake) that Bush made mistakes as related to the way the initial occupation occured with way too few troops, and that many mistakes were made in the lead up to these past three elections, (which may of made our job more difficult then otherwise), would you at least concede that the past 12 months (three successful elections-a new goverment being formed...) suggests that Bush deserves some credit for a day like today? Or is that to difficult for the anti-war left? I mean, if it was left up to the Dean's and Murtha's of the world, the hope of this day (and this sucessful election) would never have happened!
While allowing for a few day to pass to get a more accurate and comprehensive assessment, this is a shaping up as a major success for Iraqi people, and by extension BushCo. This is a permanent democratic government that has been legitimized by Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis alike. Bravo! I continue to be very intriuged by the insurgents who supported the election. Does this presage a marked reduction in violence? Can we bring home the troops more quickly? There are a lot of optimistic feelings right now. Again, time will tell. Look, I'm more than willing to let BushCo bask in the glow of victory as long as we get out of Iraq ASAP. Or sooner.
Iraqi elections, turning point at last? (opinion piece from the BBC) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4527730.stm
Can we bring the troops home now? No. First of all, there's no way we can just up and leave, logistically. Somewhere I heard it takes 10 cumulative days for every 1000 boots on the ground to exit. Thus if we wanted to get out NOW, it would take 160 days...about 6 months. Second, all three elections have gone pretty much the same way -- that is, with little violence. But as we saw after the last two, the violence can come right back. I think the al Qaeda/ex-Saddamists are laying low now...they'll start up again. The real issue is how widespread it will be...perhaps Sunni particiption will take some of the wind out, but I am not counting on it. I think we all have to face the fact that our troops will be in Iraq for the next five years. I think we will see significant drawdowns next year -- I would not be suprised if we are at the 75,000 range or lower by mid year. By'07, I wouldn't be surpised to see us under 50k. Get used to the fact, though, that we will have a low-level presence at the very least for quite some time.
I said a "low level" presence "at the very least." A total exit over the next 5 years I don't think will happen, so we ought to disabuse ourselves of the notion right now. Predictions are hazardous, but here's what I think will happen. Mid year 2006 -- 100K Year end 2006 -- 75K Year end 2007 -- 50K (and all National Guard troops out by then, if not sooner) Beyond 2007 -- 50K down to around 20K.
If democracy works in Iraq it will be a great success story. But we have to modulate our expectations, because the mess won't be solved in a short time. Iraq is a very difficult country to rule. We may attribute it to the colonialists who carved a country that should not have been a country, or maybe we can attribute it to the history of extremism which permeates some of the factions of Islam that are prevalent in the area. Probably a combination of both. But the fact is, making Iraq work as a nation is still a huge challenge. I think it is a worthy effort to try to put together a democratic government which can keep Iraq together, one that doesn't depend on chemical weapons, meat grinders, throwing people out of buildings, rapes and assorted tortures in order to keep the country from falling apart. If the Iraqis want to keep the country together, it is now up to the people choosing to keep it together. It will not be based on a thug regime which keeps the nation together and in order by spreading fear and by unjustly favoring a privileged class while oppressing everyone else. It won't be easy, but I believe it is a worthwhile effort from a human standpoint, and while there always are secondary motives in politics and war, I think Americans should be very proud of their country for helping the Iraqis now, as much as they should be ashamed of their country for having supported Saddam in the first place.
No excuse -- then start today. Seize the goodwill and good press and announce a complete pullout tonight. Get 1,000 people home by Christmas, another 1,000 home by New Years, etc. Bush set a hard timetable for Iraqi elections, he can set a hard timetable for pullout. Such a pessimist! You're harming the troops with that talk. Fixed.
What about the girl who dissapeared in Aruba, and Valerie Plame, and 'Tookie' Williams, and the lady that camped out in Texas to protest Iraq.
Judging by the number of "views" on the BS Political Boards, the attempt to force kids to wear helmets while playing soccer is a bigger story than the elections. I think the hurricanes are arguably a bigger "USA" story, but not a bigger world story. IMO. And I THINK Revolt came to close to saying something good about Bush, and that is probably the thrid biggest story of the year. Oh, and Karl writing a post without taking a swipe at someone is probably the fourth biggest story. Good show.
Leave now after I just invested in Crazy Akhabar's Appliances and Camel Sperm stores ??? You must be nuts........
In all seriousness, for those that daily bash what we are doing here, I hope you take notice of what happened. You may not like how we got here, but this was pretty fvcking inspiring. And to the lil fvcker who lobbed the mortar into the GZ today, you owe me new shorts
Of course, they notice. How can they not. But the reality is, for the "get out now, we've lost, it's just like Vietnam, it's a civil war, it's all our fault" crowd, it's just way too hard to swallow. They simply can't believe that maybe, just maybe, that democracy is on the march. In their warped and stunted view, the view that says the insurgency is "freakin' massive," or that those backward A-rabs aren't ready for democracy, or that we're going to have an oppressive theocracy -- or WHATEVER pessmistic nasty vision infects their cynical and anti-american brains, what occured today is beyond dissonant. Deep down inside, if you could ply them with some liquor, they would admit that they would rather be right, then have the situation in Iraq work itself out. Really, it totally sucks to be them.
first off... i'm part of the "this sheeeIT is broken, we gotta fix it" crowd. i didn't agree with going in, but now that we are there, we can't let it become Iran2ElectricBoogaloo. i hope that these elections go well, and that Iraq can become a struggling democracy, then in time, a mature democracy. but what i dont' agree with is this whole "democracy domino" theory. you think the house of Saud is gonna voluntarily give up power any time soon? what happens in ten years if the only muslim democracy in the middle east is still Iraq?
I'm waiting for the talking points coming from the left. Soon the leftist cabal will be on here spouting their same old vitriol. Most of it will be leveled at Bush. Let's face facts, whether anybody agrees with the invasion or not, this is a good day. There may be light at the end of the tunnel. It's too bad some posters are so blinded by their hatred of Bush that they can't see this.