This is a great article in my opinion on why it is doubtful that Iraq will become a democracy. Here's some interesting quotes: "As experience in Eastern Europe has shown, democracy doesn't mean simply holding elections. First, you need a democratic culture, or what is usually called a civic society -- a tradition of voluntary associations, a tolerance for nonconformism and pluralism, a shared belief in the dignity of the individual, an autonomous sphere of economic activity, separation of political power from religious authority and a belief in the legitimacy of dissent. These values, norms and institutions are not easily exportable. It took Western societies centuries to develop them, with many notable lapses -- slavery and racial discrimination in the United States, and fascism in continental Europe, are just two -- along the way." "The prevailing political culture of the Arab Middle East offers another reason to be pessimistic about democracy in Iraq. Despite enormous differences in size, wealth, population density and history, no Arab country is a democracy, is on the road to democracy or has a viable democratic opposition similar. . " "Believers in Iraq's potential as a democracy frequently cite its large, educated middle class as a reason for hope. But this too is misguided. Pre-Nazi Germany prided itself on possessing one of the most educated and sophisticated middle classes in Europe. It is not the existence of a middle class that counts but its values, norms and conduct." "Last, and not least, demographics conspire against the birth of democracy in Iraq. The wars in the former Yugoslavia showed how difficult it is to institute a post-totalitarian pluralistic democracy in a country riven by ethnic and religious divides." "The antidote for Iraq's ethnic and religious schisms is often said to be "federalism." But federalism works best in societies where democratic values are deeply ingrained, as in the United States, Canada and Switzerland; even post-1945 Germany could build on pre-Nazi democratic traditions, feeble as they were. Federalist ideas haven't solved religious and ethnic problems in societies struggling to become democracies. The Dayton accords tried to create a viable multiethnic Bosnia-Herzegovina based on federal principles, but the result has been an utter failure. Similarly, a recent U.N.-backed proposal to solve the Cyprus problem through federalism is stillborn. The bloody breakup of Yugoslavia is further evidence that federalism is not an answer for societies like Iraq's." "So, for what can we hope? For one, that the Pentagon's Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance doesn't set its sights too high. Its immediate tasks are obvious and relatively easy to accomplish: humanitarian aid; rebuilding the infrastructure; modernizing Iraq's oil industry so its oil revenue can partly offset the cost of reconstruction. But when it comes to the longer-term goal of political reform, postwar West Germany or Japan are not relevant examples. In both cases, democratization would not have occurred without a long military occupation, something coalition forces want to avoid. Furthermore, fear of communism in postwar West Germany and Japan certainly helped cast the West as an ally, a perception totally absent in Iraq." This is in my opinion what will turn out to be the case. There is also an article with a positive spin on the LA Times website. Both are interesting.