Iran: the collapse

Nor does Trump.

 

He is the Ahmad Chalabi of our time.

 

If you had a free and fair election in Iran, me and mini-Shah would be neck and neck fighting for last place.

 

When Franco fell, it was a member of the Spanish royal family who led the nation to democracy.

I’m sure my take is laughably naive, but could Pahlavi take power by promising to hold office for, say, only a year, as Iran writes a new constitution to transition itself to a non theocratic democracy?

 

Luckily for Iran, Trump doesn't give a shit about democracy or elections.

 

I suggest you read up about who the people behind GAMAAN are. They are not Pew or Gallup, who at least usually try to be objective.

I have seen many examples of people pushing themselves forward as leaders (or being pushed forward) via slick media operations when they have no real base of support. Chalabi was one. Hamid Karzai was another.

I will eat my hat, and yours too, if 31% of the Iranian population ever vote for the Shah’s son.

 

I'm not convinced Trump would even support that. He wants assurance the next leader will bow down to him.

 

CBN is the Christian Broadcasting Network, famed worldwide for its Iran bureau.

Mini-Shah is spending all his money on marketing and media so I expect many will just fall for it, but he is quite clearly a huge bullshitter.

Just listen to the first words out of his mouth in that CBN press release. “the Iranian people have called on me to lead the transition after the regime has gone”. Really? When did they do this?

I would have thought after a decade of Trump people would be able to identify a fantasist as soon as they opened their mouths. Apparently not.

 

It is anecdotal, just as my own opinion that I would probably poll joint last with him is also anecdotal.

Maybe I could be the next Shah of Iran, there are no reliable polls out there about just how popular I am so I could be in with a shout.

 

That's the surface level reading of his proposed plan for regime change in Iran, but deeper in it sounds ominous. It depends on a "Leader of the National Uprising" (that is, Pahlavi) leading three bodies, the National Uprising Body, the Transitional Government, and the Transitional Court, in creating a new elected government. But all those bodies are appointed by the Leader of the National Uprising, and that leader can suspend the transition at any time for any length of time. Pahlavi would have total power for at least three years, and we'd have to trust him to give it up.

His whole history is one of ingratiating himself on Israeli and now American leaders who can emplace him in control, not creating any sort of popular movement. Frankly, the Crown Prince sounds exactly like a Crown Prince.

 

I was discounting how much Russia's intelligence could help, but maybe I was wrong to do so. Now it looks like at least one American AN/TPY-2 radar, possibly two were hit by missiles and/or drones.



This is the remains of one in Jordan. Another one in UAE shows a black smudge where one used to be in low-resolution satellite images. These radars are the key to the THAAD system, and they are expensive, rare, slow to build, and expensive.The US has (or had) about 20, and they cost up to a billion each. Losing these not only loses the THAAD system, but it weakens the Patriot and other SAM systems in the area (including on ships) because these radars fed their information to all other networked systems.

Bringing another into the Middle East means taking it away from someplace that presumably needs it, and it will take a while.

 

Birds are not real.

 

300-500 million dollars down the drain. Only about eight in service by the US military. No Big Deal.

Locations of the rest:

• South Korea
• UAE (reports have this one partially hit)
• Saudi Arabia (also has been hit)
• Guam
• Israel
• Fort Bliss (Texas)
• Romania

I'm guessing maybe one of them is being held for such situations in reserve? No idea how long it takes to transport and put back into action. My understanding is this makes it much harder to coordinate defensive missiles as it kind of acts as the fulcrum in radar detection from incoming projectiles to back up spejic's post.

 

The US International Development Finance Corporation is pledging to insure any ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz for up to $20 billion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...during-iran-war/ar-AA1XGg2F?ocid=BingNewsVerp

This is either calling Iran's bluff on closing the Strait or using the ships as stalking horses to force the hidden Iranian anti-ship missiles to reveal themselves. We'll have to see if any ships take up that offer. The thing is, there's like 200 ships waiting, and all those crews have limited supplies and the owners have limited wallets.

 

CBN was started by Pat Robertson to offer a Christian-centered news agency. I wouldn't put any implicit trust in it being reliable.

 

An unknown man coming to power after a revolution, with no program other than the prestige of his name, no ambition other than to set the country right, and finally clinging to power like an oyster to its rock: that Pahlavi guy looks suspiciously like a potential Napoleon III.

 

I mean does it matter?

Are we doing this shit again? RT News is Russian propaganda yet when they have an interview with Putin where he says stuff I listen to it.

As long as they air the interview straight no bullshit the quality of what is being said is on Pahlavi.

That said I have no clue the mindset of the people involved I am just annoyed at this.

My only opinions are regarding the military and tactics side