Iran: the collapse

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Quakes05, Aug 2, 2025.

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  1. Potowmack

    Potowmack Member+

    Apr 2, 2010
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't know if this war is illegal, and I don't really care.

    I don't support this attack on Iran because I don't see what the potential end game is that will further American national security interests.
     
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  2. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    War making/declaring powers in the United States have never been as black and white as many naive Constitutionalists would believe. The grayness hinges on the distinction between the power to make war and the power to declare war. What we have seen in recent decades is the realization that the power to make war is more consequential than the power to declare war. Indeed, the power to make war tends to render the power to declare war moot.
     
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  3. Quakes05

    Quakes05 Member+

    Oct 1, 2005
    birthplace of MLS
    I guess it depends on what you mean by win. In this instance winning might mean that Iran is completely defanged and unable to threaten Israel or the US. I don't think anyone will want to occupy Iran or take on a share of the rebuilding burden, unless Iran decides to pivot sharply and adopts a whole new posture vis-a-vis the west, which seems very unlikely at his point.
     
  4. Sufjan Guzan

    Sufjan Guzan Member+

    Feb 13, 2016
    Yes to this post. Even if Congress decided that we were done with the War at this point that doesn't mean the Iranians are done waging it. It's not like all of the sudden they'd be like well shit Congress decided the War is over so we're done using the drones. Let's pack it in guys!
     
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  5. Potowmack

    Potowmack Member+

    Apr 2, 2010
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Winning/losing for the various parties runs from a continuum where the US and Israel get tired of bombing Iran, declare victory, on one end, and Iran collapses along ethnic lines and sinks into a decade of internecine warfare, on the other end. Regardless of the outcome, the Iranian people will likely be the losers.
     
  6. You werenot asking a person a question, you were posting a remark that had nothing to do with the purpose of the thread, but to troll.
    It's in your warped mind that questioning that remark is the same as defending someone...It's the same bullshit make up stories you come up with regarding me.
    I've been posting factual information from sources linked so one can judge their reliability.
    But you're not asking a question, you're reciting what trump says, while military experts arenot certain if the stated destruction actually is that complete as is being suggested by the WH.
    And as usual you insert a phantasy of yourself about what I think with "Iran is 30 days away from Tel Aviv or something?"
    You're a sick person, lying constantly by putting things in as someones opinion and then attack that made up story.
    I think it is called strawman MO.
     
  7. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Which leads into how the IRGC basically controls the economy.
     
  8. Val

    Val Moderator
    Staff Member

    Arsenal
    Mar 12, 2004
    MD's Eastern Shore
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    We probably are, actually. Hegseth has been bragging that the US was going to Iran free of inconvenient limits like rules of engagement.

    Because real men don't need no stinkin' rules.
     
  9. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Out of bounds, dude. Uncalled for.
     
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  10. Potowmack

    Potowmack Member+

    Apr 2, 2010
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Anyway, an actual warship being sunk in international waters seems like the least troublesome part of this whole situation.
     
  11. babaorum

    babaorum Member+

    Aug 20, 2005
    Marseille
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    A 'victory' as you define it might well resemble a Pyrrhic victory, so excessive does the price to pay seem.
     
  12. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But how would Israel know it was in good faith? No matter who has been in control of Iran, the religious influence has been "Death to Israel." And without an absolute destruction of the Iranian government (meaning all its people, and a full rewriting of the constitution to remove religious influence), I'm not sure how that can be achieved.

    Besides, there is still the question of the IRGC.
     
  13. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Isn't that a bit overly conditional? And isn't that also a bit now-thinking (for lack of a better phrasing)?

    Why must a new Iranian leadership be pro-west? Why can't it be pro-freedom, but not pro-west? You do realize there are religious connotations here, that the west is viewed as Christian while Iran is Islam (currently an Islamic Republic). To expect (demand?) that Iran be suddenly pro-west seems incongruent with what they have experienced for the past 45+ years. On top of that, the conditions currently being floated are that Trump (re: US) be the one to determine the new leader. Which has a lot of imperial connotations to it, and I'm sure the Iranian people would prefer to have a self-determination to chose what they do.
     
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  14. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I really think folks need to step back from the Israel and Trump angles and start to think about the other shoes that are about to drop -- and perhaps very quickly.

    I'm not specifically talking about the Russian and China angles. Russia's involvement was discussed in this thread earlier. China is apparently "preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components."

    The big shoe that's going to drop is this:

    Qatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports ‘within days’
    Financial Times - http://archive.today/iu357

    Kuwait Cuts Oil Production as Fallout From Iran Conflict Intensifies
    Wall Street Journal - https://www.wsj.com/business/energy...uction-as-storage-fills-up-3766b2eb?st=dx5mWk
     
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  15. Quakes05

    Quakes05 Member+

    Oct 1, 2005
    birthplace of MLS
    Pro west could mean less of the Death to Israel! Death to the USA! stuff which everyone has long since recognized as the Islamic Republics' calling card. There are other predominantly Muslim countries that have good relations with the west, it's not a novel idea, but yes, I hope they have the freedom of self-determination and that they choose wisely.
     
  16. mebeSajid

    mebeSajid Member+

    Feb 16, 2009
    Atlanta, GA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I think the post you were responding to was making the point that this is a clearcut war of aggression and thus the very thing the Geneva conventions set out to forbid.
     
  17. yasik19

    yasik19 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Chelsea
    Ukraine
    Oct 21, 2004
    Daly City
    They won't know, I get that. Hence this is quite a large conundrum. There is a persistent hope in me that something will happen and Iranian people will be able to take control and change history.
     
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  18. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    These guys are pretty much experts regarding international laws of war, and they are saying that this very much seems to be illegal. Mind, I am more definitive, but I'm also not using lawyer-speak.

    https://www.justsecurity.org/133292/international-law-crossroads/

    In the days since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury (referred to in Israel as Operation Roaring Lion), a broad consensus appears to be building among international lawyers that the operation exceeds the scope of permissible self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter, since neither Israel nor the US were victims of an actual or imminent armed attack (see e.g., here, here and here). Even Michael Schmitt, who was open to consider that the June 2025 Israeli military operation against Iran (Operation Rising Lion) could qualify as a form of lawful anticipatory self-defense, opined with two colleagues before the start of the current operation that no similar justification now exists.
     
  19. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I covered this in post 2170. The definition that we, the United States, have as well as International Law, all indicate that this is a war, and that it is illegal.

    Also, my post just above covers this as well.
     
  20. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Perhaps. But that's not an especially consequential argument to make these days either.

    Plus, the stated rationales (plural) are so muddied and convoluted:

    Six Days of War, 10 Rationales
    The Atlantic - http://archive.today/dzSeL
     
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  21. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    My point is in some ways more subtle and in some ways less subtle, but it boils down to this: legality appears to be a moot point.
     
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  22. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So I would phrase it as "friendly to the west" rather than pro-west. To me, saying "pro-west" has loaded connotations.
     
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  23. Quakes05

    Quakes05 Member+

    Oct 1, 2005
    birthplace of MLS
    Friendly to the west would be wonderful.
     
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  24. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

    Feb 11, 2000
    Columbus, OH, USA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So now he's demanding "unconditional surrender." WTF, does he think it's 1945?
     
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