Iran: the collapse

You're confusing Vodka Pete with President Putin.

 

This is not directly connected to your point because Iran isn't a nuclear power, but Iran's response has been incredibly weak. Are they using WWI weapons because their impacts looked pretty feeble on video? And judging from the significant drop in # of those missile and drone strikes after the first 48 hours or so, it seems that was basically all they had.

 

Trump's latest on the war - no deal, only unconditional surrender


This came after Iran already said no negotiations and they are ready for ground troops

Iran rejects cease-fire negotiations, says ready for U.S. ground invasion https://t.co/SWKJShSokD

— TIME (@TIME) March 6, 2026

 

The Iranian foreign minister also confirmed that the ship was there at the invitation of the Indians, before the israeli-American sneak attacks were ordered. And they say it was unarmed, having been sent there to take part in training and parades. See at 1:45 here:



I know it’s the Iranians saying this, but it backs up what the Indians also say:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...cise-milan-unfolded/articleshow/128806845.cms

The Americans knew of the event because they apparently sent people and equipment there to take part (I note the Indians say they withdrew just before the attack).

I still don’t think this is morally outrageous by the Americans, I think it was a mistake by the Iranians to send the ship back to Iran when there is an ongoing war, they should have kept it in dock.

But now the US can’t really complain when the IRGC attacks US ships docking anywhere in the world USS Cole style.

 

According to them, they were using their older missiles and they have now exhausted all of them. If true, we should be seeing the newer versions. One of their strategy was to deplete the other side's interceptors using old tech

This is what they said yesterday

• We have entered a new phase of the war. Tehran has finished its stockpile of old missiles, and now the true technology of the Islamic Republic will be revealed. From now on, Kheibar Shekan-4 missiles will be launched towards the Gulf and the Middle East, and intensively towards Israel and the American forces deployed in the region. Everyone who has chosen to stand against Iran will bear the consequences in the coming hours.

 

They already used the Kheibar Shekan missiles on israel in the last few days, but have been saving them for until they depleted the israeli air defence missiles.

The missile has only been around for a few years, since 2022. They say it has a cluster munition warhead which can manoeuvre in the descent phase.



We will see if that graph someone posted about the Iranian missiles finishing in a few days turns out to be true.

 

I've chewed on it a little bit and I wish it was easier for me to link videos so I could give proper credit out to other people, but I saw an argument that was persuasive that boils down to this-->The US military is built to fight the Cold War. It hasn't been built to fight 21st century warfare. Bombing people into submission just doesn't work anymore. All of our stuff costs an incredible amount of money and it can be nerfed by cheaper drones and missiles. I think the equivalent would be the Battle of Agincourt. You had knights with extensive training, expensive armor, and horses getting pummeled by easily trained longbowmen. And to a degree this has been human history in warfare. Developments happen and responses get made. It would be arrogant to assume that other countries couldn't find ways to nerf advancements in our technology.

So while the War is still in its infancy, I think it's fair to suggest that Iran was better prepared for this conflict than US warmongers were. Could the US still accomplish its goals? What are its goals? Either way it's going to be at an extremely higher cost than originally anticipated. And that to me makes the overall might of the military appear to be a Paper Tiger. If all of that investment yields a small ROI, with lots of lives and military material lost. There are reports out there internationally that hundreds of US Servicemembers have died. If Iran makes an attack so costly as to deter attackers from future attacks, a rethinking must be made. Now there is an argument that all of this is just to test the US's new AI technology that was tested in Gaza against the Palestinians in ground arm to arm conflict. Which would be an argument that would back the Paper Tiger statement in a sense-->The US war machine realizes that Cold War technology can no longer fuel it and it needs a new proving ground in order to continue to sell munitions to the world. Just some thoughts on what some of the ulterior motives of the conflict might be for people who profit off of war.

 

This topic has been filled with people who fall for AI slop, change definitions of specific words (paper tiger), who expect the real Iranian Army I expect hypersonic weapons next! to show up.... and have coping mechanisms that would make the Russians blush

Jesus you people are deluled, you live in lala land. And @feyenoordsoccerfan baby you can tag me or quote me no need for the BS

We are 10 pages away from learning how Iran actually won

 

Iran's victory condition is surviving with a functional state to the end of this.

 

I am usually careful with my words. I said they are manoeuvrable in the descent phase, which is what the AlJazeera commentator in the video I linked to said. I didn’t say they were impervious to missile defence.

Whether they are capable of getting through the israeli defences can be seen in the video I linked to, which shows a hit.

Whether they are older or newer tech, some missiles will get through and some won’t, so long as the interceptors don’t run out. It would make total sense to use your worst missiles at the beginning so that the impact of your best missiles is greater. It’s not as if the israeli-American forces can use their worst THAAD/Davids Sling missiles at the beginning and save their best stuff for later, is it?

 

I'm trying to think of a war where one of the combatants kept their best weapons in reserve, and let themselves get pounded for weeks before using them. It's really an ingenious strategy, and it's surprising no one has come up with it before.

 

It’s implausible to me that the Trump administration could successfully cover that up.

Doesn’t it seem implausible to you?

 

Pakistan has border issues with India, has a huge ethnic population, related to India.
For China Pakistan is a useful tool towards India, but also a passage over land for their new silk road as a back up for the sea route through the Chinese sea, and Pakistan sits on the doorstep of the important oil channel for China.
Too much at risk to fock Pakistan.

 

I guess my question is, then why the 90% decline in missile launches from Iran? Wouldn't they immediately follow up their launching of WWI missiles with the 21st century ones, especially given that, at the other end, Iran are being pounded continuously?

Seems to me, all they are doing by waiting is allowing Israel to replenish their air defense system (if even necessary ).

 

Correct. Sufyan, maybe you should stay out of this thread for a day or so. It's jumah. Go recite Surah Kahf.

 

Long term there is zero chance. Enough people will obviously notice their loved ones missing. I would imagine any family that have relatives in a conflict zone don't get very many opportunities to contact them. For a week? Yeah, I think they could cover it up. There are only a few people and corporations that control information flow in this country. Coincidence the Washington Post fired all of it's staff covering the Middle East a month before this conflict?

We are living under an authoritarian. Any type of information black out is possible, especially in war time. I should add a heavy disclaimer on that, because I can't verify that one way or another. But if you think about how the information spigot happens in this country, it isn't outside the realms of possibility. We are in unknown territory here. But historically speaking regimes like this cover up all sorts of things from their people. It's incredibly risky in today's age because of how much information is freely available, but I wouldn't put it past this administration.

Think of that post as something to circle back to in the event that we get much higher casualty numbers down the line.

 

And they're all guided by the same non existing celestial wizzard, who shares with the leaders of his followers the same self entitlement and sadism.

 

How many THAAD missiles does the israeli-American military industrial complex build each year? I understand currently around 96, with plans to increase to 400.

https://breakingdefense.com/2026/01...k-plan-to-boost-thaad-interceptor-production/

I don’t know if Iran can make more than 96 of their advance missiles each year, but if they deplete the current stocks to nil, they won’t need 96 advanced ones, just a “standard” ballistic missile will do.

(This disregards David’s Sling production but israel’s own military industrial machine is no doubt way less capable than daddy’s).

 

A lot of people in that White House prayer video are clearly faking it, including Trump.

And that, to be clear, is a good thing because there's nothing scarier than being in the middle of war between sides that view life on Earth as being just for shits and giggles - its all about the after party.

 

The Plan: don't use our most advanced weapons until we're losing, and then continue to not use them pic.twitter.com/a7OFYWT3ve

— Moshe (@kahntra) March 6, 2026

The Plan: don't use our most advanced weapons until we're losing, and then continue to not use them

 

That's why I consider Borden's painting the ME future as Israel bullying the rest in submission as a phantasy, because for that Israel has to be on alert 24/7, which is economically, but also from a pov of the size of the population impossible, especially with China behind the curtains stirring the pot.