Iran: the collapse

This is very on point. The damage is already done. Like you said, if you're Japan, South Korea - how confident are you that the US can defend you against China and North Korea (nuclear nations) when Iran was able to hit all your bases in the Middle East while failing to defend the GCC?

I don't think they'll lose any sleep over the US leaving the region. They dragged them into it (Rubio said as much) - that's the outcome they are looking for after Iran is put down.

They'll still buy American but I think they want to achieve self-reliance in defense matters. They can read the room, this unconditional support from the US has an expiry date. Their approval with the upcoming generation is low, I think this as good as it will ever get for them in terms of western support.

They have the minds and ingenuity to achieve that. With Iran and the US out of the way, they'll be in control of resources. For financing via the resources, their message to GCC will be

 

Obviously we were thinking this wouldn't take long, but Israel is out for nothing less than regime change, and who knows how long that will take. You need intelligence officers to figure out what to bomb, as we're running out of preplanned targets.

 

It depends on who "we" is. I don't think Trump or his inner circle lackeys thought it'd take long. But I'm pretty sure the Pentagon knew it would drag on. I just don't think Trump or his inner circle listened to the Pentagon.

 

This is what fascist governments sound like.

 

It would be China deciding to fuck with Pakistan more than they already do

 

You’re asking for sources on events every major European outlet covered because you don’t want to deal with the argument. Pretending it didn’t happen doesn’t make your point any stronger.

 

"I know more about ISIS than the generals."

The only time he listens to the Pentagon is when they're taking about what to order from McDonald's.

 

MAGA chode Andrew Tate tried to take a bus to Dubai. Was stopped by Saudi border guards



https://bsky.app/profile/ottoenglish.bsky.social/post/3mgf3t7voe22j

 

Lindsay Graham said: "This is a religious war and we will determine the course of the Middle East for a thousand years."
In short: fanatics guided by the Bible, allied with fanatics guided by the Torah, are fighting against fanatics guided by the Quran.

I vomited

Missile control? OK. Target in sight? OK, Fire!

 

??

 

Can't you say the same for Russia and China? You lost Venezuela in one day. You could lose Iran if this war ends, and Russia's war isn't going as planned for Russia. If Iran falls, this will be a hit on Russia, just for the fact that they make a lot of cheap drones for their war

 

A scheduled phase‑out over several years isn’t the same as an abrupt cutoff during a crisis. The public reacts very differently to those two scenarios. Good luck - hope this works out

If pointing out a prediction (deindustrialisation trend) that actually came true counts as "always predicting collapse", then I guess accuracy really bothers you. I wish "the garden" all the best

 

You’re comparing US treaty allies that host American forces and rely on US extended deterrence with countries that have no defense treaties, no integrated command structures and no nuclear umbrella from Russia or China. Losing Venezuela or a shift in Iran’s politics isn’t equivalent to the GCC reassessing US reliability. They’re not comparable situations.

Venezuela does not host their forces, integrate with their command structures or anchor their regional deterrence. A shift there does not alter their strategic environment. Venezuela's share of China's oil import was not that high, quite low actually. Iran is not a cornerstone of Russia security architecture since both the drones technology has already been transferred to them and can produce their own variants.

GCC states are part of a long‑standing US security architecture built around formal defense cooperation, basing agreements and integrated military planning. This creates a level of dependence, expectation and strategic consequence that is not mirrored in the partnerships Russia and China have with Venezuela or Iran. Their ties are transactional, not institutional.