Iran: the collapse

This is the piece that most people are missing. Everyone in the Middle East has been preparing for this conflict actually happening at some point. And the US is looking like a paper tiger. Nobody wants war to come to their doorstep. The hope was that anything Iran would throw would be miniscule. If a Middle Eastern Power were to get Nuclear Weapons, Israel could no longer bully their neighbors at will for their expansionist goals and the GCC would play middle man. End result is kicking the US out of the sphere of influence.

Which is why I think we're seeing the clampdown on the Western Hemisphere. China was obviously a target as two of its sources of oil (Venezuela and Iran) have been targeted). But long term, we aren't going to able to play the extraction game for very much longer in the Middle East or in Southeast Asia. At some point China will have that zone under their sphere of influence.

This is the last gasp. Sad really, because if the US would just invest in its domestic green energy/nuclear it wouldn't need to rely on oil so much. They do plenty of domestic oil production as is.... But the military industrial complex needs war and the corporations need the resources. I hope what comes next is better than the last 50 years.

 

The ramifications for the US economy would be significant. You’d likely see major market volatility as Gulf sovereign wealth funds carry out large equity sell-offs. Since these countries recycle oil revenues into US Treasury bonds, a pullback could mean a halt in Treasury purchases and potentially even sales. That would push US interest rates higher, making government borrowing more expensive and likely driving mortgage rates up as well. As for the petrodollar, you would probably see a gradual but noticeable decline with Gulf states diversifying away from US assets and increasing investments in Asia.

 

If this is to be believed (and I have doubts, even in the Trump Maladministration) we attacked an unarmed ship.

 

Pretty much the beginning of the end of unipolarity

 

Is this war going to be a bridge too far for bibi/Israel?

 

US leadership has no honor. Not really news

 

Wait for it...Wasnot someone ridiculing me recently telling the damage would be in the trillions?

 

I don’t understand this. Could you explain? Because yeah it’s a stupid war, but it’s not like we are losing.

 

There's a 50/50 chance that my sailor's boat fired the MK 48 ADCAP that fired the torpedo

It's an unwinnable war because we don't have the stomach to do what it takes to install a friendly government, like returning the Shah, to power

 

I wrote in another thread about the Dutch pensionfunds disinvesting US treasurybonds, and as they're the largest funds in Europe and at the time this was discovered by the Dutch press, the Davos meetings were in full swing. You can bet your ass that overthere asset managers from over the globe were talking to these guys and most likely following them. Europe financed about 40% iirc of the treasury bonds.
So now Tanman broke the other big financers of the US debts

 

He doesn’t care one way or another in my opinion. There's going to be a point where Israel will reach their limit. Iran can keep this up for a while - Israel cannot.

That's why I think that they'll ultimately be the big winners of all of this. Sadly, I fear they'll use nukes at a time of their choosing to stop Iran. With Khamenei dead, I can't imagine that they aren't currently on the path to get a nuke - can't see a scenario where Israel risks letting this happen. Bonus - US leaves the middle east leaving Israel as the sole hegemon of the region.

They'll rebuild, expand, control resources and move on to the next boss fight -Turkey.

 

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. But to me, a paper tiger is Russia today; who here thought Ukraine would be where it is 4 years after the invasion? Or Iran last summer when they got bombed and had no recourse.

 

Exactly - they didn't learn the lesson of Afghanistan

I'm happy that they are - I really need India or Pakistan, or both, to start fucking with Xi

 

It's showing to our allies that it can't defend their interests. Outside of Israel's that is.... We've already seen Trump destroy links to numerous allies and he's now signaling to our allies in the Middle East that we only care about defending Israel. So by paper Tiger, I mean we project the idea that we can defend everyone, when the reality is we are down to only being able to protect our immediate interests. It doesn't bode well for Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. Who I am sure are taking a lot of notes.

 

I'm looking at an analysis of what the shut down of Hormuz and the bombed oil facilities means in economical repercussions.
Boy, I suggest you all to keep your hand on your wallet and cut spending money on unnecesary things.
Sofar the closure of Hormuz has costed 3.2 trillion US$ in damage to revenues, which for a huge part would have been spent in the USA.
If it's reality that the war could take 100 days.....

 

Iran hit the US wallet and that has as a consequence the USA will have to make choices where to spend their money, in the Pacific or send it to Israel.
Whithout the financial and military equipment flowing generously, it might become a bit difficult to keep the status of ME superpower, apart from having nukes.
Using nukes on Iran is only an option when you keep a few to commit nationwide suicide.

 

They didn’t even help rescue the sailors in life boats, which is astoundingly awful.

 

Why would Pakistan do that?

 

As horrifying as all of this is, it would be somewhat funny if this war was the reason Bari Weiss can’t run CNN. Gulf financing is behind a quarter of that deal.

 

Well, this isnot the plan, is it?

 

See the quote here: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/iran-the-collapse.2135979/page-86#post-43523770

I think this is the unplanned plan. Months.

 

https://www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2021/why-iran-producing-60-cent-enriched-uranium

The opinion of the expert in this link is that it was entirely a political statement. They were unhappy with what was going on (US walking away from the Obama era agreement) and the way they showed it was by stepping into the US's 'guard'.

You need something like 40kg of 60% enriched uranium to step up to enough 90% to make a bomb. According to the source Iran had the capability to produce 1kg of 60% from 20% every five days. So the timetable to enrich from 20% is already pretty short, although at that rate, Iran is enriching much more slowly than North Korea.

 

I read in the Deutsche Welle that the Iranians have been preparing for a long war.
https://www.dw.com/en/how-long-can-iran-continue-the-war/a-76234532
I don't think the American people are going to accept the potentially huge bill of such a prolonged conflict.

 

The idea that he actually believes he has anything at all to say about it shows how completely delusional he is. Iran isn't DHS.