Iran: the collapse

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Quakes05, Aug 2, 2025.

  1. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

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    #151 The Irish Rover, Jan 9, 2026
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2026
    You're guessing wrong. They were ousted 100 years ago and have been in exile since then. The last recognized (or even simply recognizable) claimant spent his life as a barrister in Paris.

    As for their perceived trustworthiness in Iran, under the dynasty Iran descended from major power to plaything status, particularly in its last 50-60 years, when the Shah was de facto the governor of Tehran province.

    That's how a peasant like Pahlavi who rose through the ranks from private to brigadier general because he knew how to use machine guns effectively could become shah in the first place.
     
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  2. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

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    An interesting internal analysis was leaked to the Guardian. On the chanting the shah's name, it quoted this particularly eloquent summation by an anonymous person.
    “What is heard in the slogans today is not a call [to] return to the crown; it is an escape from a dead end. A society that has no way out retreats – not out of interest, but out of compulsion. This retreat is not a choice; it is the nervous reaction of a tired political body that no longer responds to prescriptions.
    “For decades, society was told to ‘wait’. It waited. It was told ‘it will be fixed’. It wasn’t fixed. It was told ‘it can’t get worse, it’s enough’. It got worse. Then they said ‘we have no alternative’. And this was precisely the moment when the street created its own alternative; not with classical rationality, but with the instinct for survival.
    “The monarchist slogan is not a declaration of love for Pahlavi: it is a declaration of disgust for the Islamic Republic. It is a cry of ‘no’ when no ’yes’ is available
    … Everyone is stuck in the past or in empty promises. When the horizon is empty, society looks back because it sees nothing ahead.”​
     
  3. Quakes05

    Quakes05 Member+

    Oct 1, 2005
    birthplace of MLS
    Trump says Iran in 'big trouble,' US will 'get involved' if regime kills protesters | The Times of Israel

    “Iran is in big trouble. It looks to me that the people are taking over certain cities that nobody thought were really possible just a few weeks ago,” Trump told reporters in the White House when asked about the protests. “We’re watching the situation very carefully.”

    “I’ve made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved… That doesn’t mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts. We don’t want that to happen,” he continued.

    “This is something pretty incredible that’s happening in Iran… They’ve done a bad job. They’ve treated their people very badly, and now they’re being paid back,” Trump said.


    48 protestors killed so far, wonder what kind of threshold he's working with.
     
  4. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

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    The threshold of opportunity.

    If the opportunity for a one-and-done move that will irredeemably humiliate the regime presents itself, he'll take it but not otherwise.
     
  5. The Irish Rover

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    #155 The Irish Rover, Jan 9, 2026
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2026
    Khamanei to Iranians on TV last this morning:
    "Saboteurs," "agents of foreign powers," "vandals," "traitors!"

    Iranians to Khamanei on the streets this evening:

    https://x. com/bashirtash/status/2009715270533763262
     
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  6. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

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    A few more days like this and we're in Eastern Europe 1989-91 territory.

    (FWIW I was there at the time and much of this is very familiar)
     
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  7. Quakes05

    Quakes05 Member+

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  8. roadkit

    roadkit Greetings from the Fringe of Obscurity

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    The irony is off the charts
     
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  9. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

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    FYP
     
  10. Sufjan Guzan

    Sufjan Guzan Member+

    Feb 13, 2016
    I don't think he stands a chance of returning to or retaining power. I know that Western media is reporting that his name is being chanted, but Trump isn't interested in meeting with him. The fact that an outlet like Al-Jazeera is indicating otherwise is a good sign that what you are reading in Western Media is coordinated propaganda.


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026...crown-prince-pahlavi-would-not-be-appropriate
     
  11. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

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    Isn't it possible that people can have similar ideas for their own reasons? After all, just by making an article about Pahlavi they showed a difference from the Trump stance, which is to deny him any recognition at all.

    Besides, it's pretty clear that - excepting Pahlavi himself - essentially no one, including the protestors, actually want him in charge. His name is just a metaphor for change.
     
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  12. Quakes05

    Quakes05 Member+

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  13. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

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  14. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

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    We'll see if things tone down a bit. The Iranian weekend is on Thursday and Friday, and Saturday is a work day. But things may be approaching a head here, and people seem to be stocking up on supplies and extracting cash from banks. Credit and debit cards don't work because the internet is shut off.
     
  15. waitforit

    waitforit Member+

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    The guys with guns here were quick to turn their guns towards their bosses. It does not look like this is the case here. The Basijis seem very fanatical and looks like they would kill everyone until they are literally stopped
     
  16. Cascarino's Pizzeria

    Apr 29, 2001
    New Jersey, USA
    Revolution humblebrag :rolleyes:
     
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  17. cliche_guevara

    cliche_guevara Member+

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    So was Hasselhoff.
     
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  18. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
    Sadly, I think you are right. There are a lot of true believers in Iran’s “security” forces. This won’t fall quite like Assad & Syria.
     
  19. waitforit

    waitforit Member+

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    Trump on Truth Social: Iran wants freedom, perhaps like it has never wanted before. The United States stands ready to help!

    Also

    Trump administration officials have had preliminary discussions about how to carry out an attack on Iran including what sites might be targeted, U.S. officials say - WSJ
     
  20. Cascarino's Pizzeria

    Apr 29, 2001
    New Jersey, USA
    Maybe Dumb Donnie should wait to see how things play out
     
  21. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

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    I don't think you read the article. It's a summary listing of events and statements by players, no more and no different to what you'll find in the Guardian, the Times, the BBC, etc.

    Check your conspiracy theories at the door.
     
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  22. waitforit

    waitforit Member+

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    TO THE IRANIAN PEOPLE: your long nightmare is soon coming to a close. Your bravery and determination to end your oppression has been noticed by @POTUS
    and all who love freedom. When President Trump says Make Iran Great Again, it means the protestors in Iran must prevail over the ayatollah. That is the clearest signal yet that he, President Trump understands Iran will never be great with the ayatollah and his henchmen in charge. To all who are sacrificing in Iran, God bless. Help is on the way.
     
  23. Sufjan Guzan

    Sufjan Guzan Member+

    Feb 13, 2016
    There's a funny joke from the Cold War about a KGB agent and a CIA agent grabbing a drink.

    "I have to admit, I'm always so impressed by Soviet propaganda. You really know how to get people worked up," the CIA agent says.

    "Thank you," the KGB says. "We do our best but truly, it's nothing compared to American propaganda. Your people believe everything your state media tells them."

    The CIA agent drops his drink in shock and disgust. "Thank you friend, but you must be confused... There's no propaganda in America."
     
  24. Quakes05

    Quakes05 Member+

    Oct 1, 2005
    birthplace of MLS
    #174 Quakes05, Jan 10, 2026
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2026
    He says that but...

    There was a time when Lindsey Graham was a credible person. That now seems like a very long time ago.
     
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  25. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

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    Watching France 24 just now. They're reporting that the IRGC have been seen deployed on the streets in Kermanshah in Kurdish Western Iran.

    The significance of that lies in the fact that the police and Basij militia are the forces for dealing with protest and unrest. The IRGC have been seen as the regime's last line of defence, only to be committed in an emergency.

    There are two possible explanations: 1) the regime fears imminent loss of control of a major city that's the administrative centre of the Kurdish region and, deep down, Kurds are separatists or 2) the rapid spread of the protests is creating localized manpower shortages. Either is very, very bad for the mullahs
     

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