Iran: the collapse

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Quakes05, Aug 2, 2025.

  1. Sufjan Guzan

    Sufjan Guzan Member+

    Feb 13, 2016
    Once again, I've posted this several times, their goals and levels of what they can tolerate are different. Iran has, can, and probably will be hit harder than what they can dole out. But Iran doesn't have to meet the same levels of force to hurt their opponents harder. This is the nature of asymmetric warfare. Israel is a settler colonial project. If Iran can penetrate their defense systems and by all accounts the hold up is that there are not enough air defense systems in the region because of the fairly recent ban that China enacted on rare earth minerals needed for the West to re-stockpile (done strategically after the US drained its reserves through years of the Ukraine/Russia conflict) to the point where we are dragging our feet because if Israel shows weakness, many of its citizens will simply leave and go home to Western Europe/USA.

    From a longterm political objective Israel needing this war now is that every year moving forward they will receive less support from the United States. Combined with the potential idea that the Epstein files were potentially a source of Israeli blackmail on American politicians, this could happen much more rapidly than any of us can project.
     
  2. yasik19

    yasik19 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Chelsea
    Ukraine
    Oct 21, 2004
    Daly City
    I hope karma is a real thing. Some posters deserve a healthy dose of it.
     
  3. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    We know this too, so the targets won't be against things to try to change the government's ways. It will be against the government directly. Probably against very specific people.

    Yes, which is why we are spending an ungodly amount of money sending very expensive missiles to all over the Middle East to prevent... maybe most of that damage taking place.

    At the level we are arming and at the level that systems can be sent to Iran, it won't matter. It might even be something we desire, to learn about new-to-us tech and how to defeat it.
     
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  4. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Being lectured by a genocide-denier. This is rich...
     
  5. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I think at the end of all this, Iran will be severely weakened if the US gets involved but so will the US who might very well exit the Middle East.

    Ultimately, that's what Israel wants - Iran down, Americans out marking the beginning of their empire in the Middle East.

    Israel wins at the end of all of this
     
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  6. Sufjan Guzan

    Sufjan Guzan Member+

    Feb 13, 2016


    People only resort to personal attacks in arguments that they are losing or ones that they do not think they can win on merit.
     
  7. Sufjan Guzan

    Sufjan Guzan Member+

    Feb 13, 2016
  8. waitforit

    waitforit Member+

    Dec 3, 2010
    Valcea
    Club:
    FC Steaua Bucuresti
    Nat'l Team:
    Romania
    Just like they armed Venezuela
     
  9. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    You're implying that the IRGC would turn off all their defense systems and let the US kidnap their leader.

    Totally the same situation...what would we do without you:rolleyes:
     
  10. waitforit

    waitforit Member+

    Dec 3, 2010
    Valcea
    Club:
    FC Steaua Bucuresti
    Nat'l Team:
    Romania
    No I am implying that you will bring forth the same kind of idiotic excuses (like you just did) IF something happens. My prediction is it will be Mossad related (like in the 12th day war) but I learned I can never go so utter utter stupid like the kind of stuff you idjits come up with so I am curios the coping you will come up with

    Mossad and CIA ninjas perhaps
     
  11. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    You're so blinded by your obsession with me that you missed the part where I said Israel would be the winner at the end of all of this.

    Look, I'm really flattered but you can't wake up in the morning excited to communicate with me. It's unhealthy, therapy...try it
     
  12. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    That's one hell of an admission to make. Not sure telling everyone that it isn't the Iranian state making the lives of Iranians a living hell - we did.
     
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  13. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Uh oh... That's awkward.

    Iran’s foreign minister has confirmed that at least one U.S. GBU-57 bunker-buster bomb that failed to detonate during the latest strike is now in Iran’s possession, potentially giving Tehran the opportunity to reverse-engineer the weapon.

    They will undoubtedly share it with Russia and China. Makes sense why nuclear facilities survived the bombing
     
  14. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    There's nothing technological in there they don't already know, but if they have the weapon they can probably work out exactly how much protection their underground facilities actually need.
     
  15. Uhm, how believable is it that those things didnot detonate?
    Sofar the cost per bomb is 500million/20 units= about 25 million each.
    Dunno what the actual material and labour/facilities costs per bomb are, but they can't be cheaper than the about 2 million cruise missiles.
    So let's suppose they cost at least 6 million, then I would imagine you build in guarantees this expensive mofo does indeed explode, just for the reason the enemy not getting their hands on an intact one.
     
  16. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Very. Duds are just a part of the military experience.
     
  17. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    Just like the F-35s they shot down in June, eh? I mean, they provided photos. :ROFLMAO:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    The US admitted they haven't destroyed all the nuclear facilities, don't you see that the correlation with that dud makes sense?
     
  19. waitforit

    waitforit Member+

    Dec 3, 2010
    Valcea
    Club:
    FC Steaua Bucuresti
    Nat'l Team:
    Romania
    #494 waitforit, Feb 9, 2026
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2026
    They won't

    They will continue to live privileged lives compared to 99% of the planet while simping for terrorists and dictators

    There are literal youtube videos of how they are made.

    As always you fall for propaganda spread by the dumbest people

    Lets recap exactly what he said:

    Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi delivered one of the most consequential post-conflict disclosures to date when he confirmed that unexploded U.S. munitions—believed to potentially include GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-busting bombs—remain embedded within multiple Iranian nuclear facilities targeted during the conflict.

    “There are unexploded bombs in some Iranian facilities that were subjected to bombing during the 12-day war,”
     
  20. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    That’s not how this works and you know it. There’s a massive difference between understanding the concept of a US bunker‑buster and having physical access to an unexploded one inside your own facility.

    Sure, they can use it to refine their underground protection but that’s only one consequence. The bigger issue is that physical access to an advanced US weapon lets adversaries reverse‑engineer capabilities, improve their own systems and share the intelligence with Russia or China. Unless you're admitting that the US "supremacy" in advance weaponry has been massively exaggerated - which one is it?

    If Iran really has intact US munitions embedded in its nuclear sites, that’s a huge intelligence and engineering windfall allowing them to study anything from the the casing metallurgy to the fuse and delay‑detonation architecture. Also found that they could figure out the penetration sequencing, the shock‑hardening techniques or the guidance integration. These are all highly classified for a reason. You don’t dismiss that by saying “they already know everything.” Pretending that’s trivial is not analysis, it’s minimizing a very real strategic loss.

    Right, because nothing says "deep understanding of classified US data" like a 480p Youtube explainer sandwiched in your suggestion list between a "how to date as a white supremacist" tutorial and a guy reviewing books on "how to dehumanize people that don't look like me" on soccer forums :rolleyes:

    If reverse‑engineering advanced bunker‑busters were as simple as watching a tutorial, every country with Wi‑Fi would have them by now. As always, I keep underestimating your capacity for stupidity
     
  21. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    What technology are you talking about? GPS guidance? Fuses? We've been dropping duds on foreign land consistently forever. There is nothing high-tech in there that everyone doesn't already know about. The only unique thing about this bomb is the shape and composition of the penetrator part of the device. If you use a weapon the enemy will learn about it - that's a truism of war since war started.

    It isn't even clear that Iran is actually "in possession" of it. From what they say it sounds like it's buried deep underground somewhere.
     
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  22. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    The asymmetry matters as they didn’t have it before and now they may understand it well enough to design around it. That alone has strategic value.
     
  23. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    That's part of war. When Ug introduced hitting people with sticks in the Battle for the Berry Patch in 35,000 BC, everyone else started using stick technology and Ug's advantage was lost. There's been way worse losses than this bomb in recent history, like the F-117 downed in Serbia, the RQ-170 lost over Iran, or the tail section of the stealth helicopter that was left after the Bin Laden raid. And there were world-changing examples further back in history, like Germany's Enigma, the B-29's left in Russia, or the early Taiwanese Sidewinder that embedded itself in a Chinese MiG-17 without exploding.

    The possibility of giving the other side information about a weapon is always part of the decision to use a weapon. Russia has intact examples of every Western weapon system given to Ukraine - M-1 and Leopard tanks, Storm Shadow, GMLRS missiles, glide bombs, everything. A big reason why Germany hasn't given Ukraine their Taurus cruise missile is they don't want Russia to get information about it.
     
  24. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    It's not the technology. It's the infrastructure, logistics and networking.
     
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  25. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I was going to ask what happened with the name of the thread "the inevitable war with Iran" since this one feels truly inevitable.

    Netanyahu's arrival in Washington this week sets the stage to force the US into a direct confrontation with Iran. While Iran is willing to discuss uranium enrichment, their missile program is non-negotiable. So Bibi will tell Trump that if the missile program isn't abolished, IDF will attack unilaterally

    Here are the likely scenarios
    1. The US attack Iran with IDF- Iran retaliates against both countries' military assets and personnel
    2. IDF attacks Iran unilaterally - Iran already warned that any attack on its soil triggers a retaliation on US assets in the region. They would strike both nations' assets triggering retaliation from the US thus escalating the war.
    One way or another, Bibi gets what he wants - the US will go to war and he will achieve theses objectives
    • The destruction of Iran as a state or the state survives but a shadow of its formal self after this war
    • US exit of the Middle East. Win or lose, this will likely be very costly and irreversibly damage the US "as a global empire". The casualties and spending will lead to further domestic fatigue with foreign interventions, more political polarization and pressure to reduce overseas commitments. It's no coincidence that both Russia and China are pouring in their advance hardware into the country - they want this outcome. As for Bibi? US support won't be forever - even he realizes as much so it makes sense to not have the US on their doorsteps when the unconditional financial and political support ends.
    • A US exit would create a massive vacuum that Bibi will want to fill with American support (funding and military hardware) starting with any assets left behind by the US. Israel will become the clear winner as one of the sole superpower left in the region.
    So at the end of it all, the title of the thread is accurate - Iran will collapse as a Middle East superpower. Then we'll need a new thread name "the inevitable war with Türkiye"
     

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