Iran: the collapse

If SA isnot allowing attacks on Iran over their territory, how are these then going to take place?

The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com › world › 2026 › jan › 26 › iran-prepares-possible-attack-us-navy

Iranian government braces for possible attack as US navy arrives in ...
2 dagen geledenRegional powers including the United Arab Emirates declared they will not allow their airspace or territorial waters to be used to mount an attack on Iran but the presence of the carrier strike ...

If India/Pakistan/the Arab peninsula countries close their airspace and territorial waters, the only option left is attacking from the Mediterranean.

 

Those missiles aren't that complicated, and I'm sure Iran got to building really quick after using up / having Israel destroy the first batch. A nation's wealth is immense, especially if they aren't spending money on the welfare of the people, and they can afford it. And the companies that make them are owned by the people at the top, so it's quite a profitable policy too.

They can attack from and over Iraq and from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar through the Gulf. They can avoid Saudi waters and I don't think they mind violating Iran's.

 

Which is where another divergence has come into view. From what I can gather in a few conversations with Gen Z men in the political right space, that's where you want to go to find real anti-semitism. Regardless of what you call it, America is retreating back to its isolationist ways. In that type of scenario Israel and America's interest begin to diverge. Saudi Arabia becomes a more important partner and to be honest with you Trump seems to be treating them as such. Israel has always been a more important cog in breaking up the area and creating instability, as well as giving America a location to project power. With its regional bases they now have all over the region, this becomes less important especially as domestic support for Israel weakens on both sides of the aisle.

In that case, I don't see America starting this War. I think they backed the regime change efforts heavily with CIA/Mossad involvement. But I don't think these guys want to start another war. Not with all of the domestic issues piling up as well. I'm starting to believe the show of force is just to placate the Israelis. Kind of like we are showing you we are backing you, while secretly hoping nothing else happens. Trump is too focused on other issues.

 

I think that's exactly why Trump wants to do this. Not as a diversion for current domestic news, but as a retreat to something he thinks he is good at, at something that will get him a win.

The thing is, I've seen massive buildups too many times in my life and from experience know nations almost never back down. You don't do something as expensive as that without already having decided to do it.

 

at my rotten core, I am an eternal optimist.

 

This post made think about how throughout all of human history mountains have been valued for their strategic importance. High ground giving the advantage to the attackers and what not. I find it so fascinating that this advantage has extended even in the nuclear age. From Afghanistan being able to ward off both the USSR and USA superpowers to North Korea and Iran being able to maintain regimes outside of the world's financial banking system.

Crazy how at the end of the day simple concepts remain the winners.

 

USA will do something kinetic wise. Be in 10 or 1000 bombs but they will do something. For them to do nothing means Iran must do a big gesture and I don't see Iran backing down

 

But the important thing about this is that no one is talking about the Epstein files any longer.

 

If you think little news means things are calming down around Iran, I'm afraid things are actually calming up. New deployments today - 5 refueling aircraft, nine C-17 cargo aircraft from Robert Gray Airfield (by Fort Hood where the THAAD systems are kept), a couple of C-5s, a batch of Air Force F-35s, six EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft, and various intelligence and reconnaissance aircraft such as a WC-135 (which detects nuclear activity). American anti-missile systems have been installed in Jordan.

We could have bombed them with what we had before. Now we are bring in stuff that shows we want to bomb them really really hard.

 

Where are these going to be stationed?

 

Trump: We have a large armada heading towards Iran

Trump: Only Iran knows deadline to strike a deal, i have told them directly my deadline

The guy is such a clown that even when he tells the truth you have no clue

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...-base-amid-tension-with-us-israel-2025-01-18/

If someone else mentioned these I apologize for the repeat. You only reveal something like this if your goal is to stay out of a conflict. Iran has built underground naval bases right by the Strait of Hormuz with the goal of being able to fire cruise missiles from below to strike ships to effectively blockade even if above ground facilities are compromised. They would launch speedboats capable of launching cruise missiles.

Yeah this thing could get pretty nasty if conflict breaks out. I think Iran has a slim chance of being able to take out a carrier. Whether they would want to or not is another question. At some point the carrier will be nerfed that's like any battlefield weapon-->there is always a counter that eventually gets developed.

Have also heard that the delay is being caused because of China's ban on the rare earth minerals not allowing Boeing to build the interceptor missiles that Israel needs to defend itself from an Iranian barrage. Again Israel and the USA have the overwhelming amount of force, but Iran doesn't need to hit Israel as hard as Israel can hit Iran. Any sort of carnage in Israel threatens their settler colonial project and will cause citizens to leave.

 

I assume mostly Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is absolutely massive. We also have bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, and B-2's will be flying in from far away.

 

So this is the true reason of bombing those Venezuelan speedboats, target practicing.

 

Bla bla bla..."you're a conspiracist"...bla bla bla

What do we have here?

The tragedy of it all? Iran will be annihilate and thousands of innocent will die in an attempt to distract/protect a bunch of old rich white supremacist pedophiles.

Keep convincing yourselves that any of this is about "de-muh-cracy"

"TRUMP HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY ISRAEL AND KUSHNER IS THE REAL BRAINS BEHIND HIS PRESIDENCY."

An unclassified FBI FD-1023 CHS (Confidential Human Source) report alleges that the Trump presidency was co-opted by Israeli influence networks, with Jared Kushner functioning as the… pic.twitter.com/Vdr2r7RGww

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) January 30, 2026

 

That doesnot seem very safe, so close to Iran:


And havenot all the countries in the Arab peninsula closed their airspace for attacks on Iran?

 

There is speculation the pulled files from the Epstein files that were released today were a threat to Trump unless he engages with Iran. Would track with all of the evidence that Epstein was a Mossad agent. Israel has the most motive to try and force this war and to force it now before support begins to further wane. The World is not going to simply forget their genocide.

 

That's right - we "completely and totally obliterated" their nuclear sites, that's what Trump said at the time. Was that really only seven or eight months ago? It seems like multiple lifetimes.

 

Saw a post about an hour ago claiming f35’s and tankers had taken off from Portugal earlier heading east.

now this

An explosion now reported in Qom, Iran.
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mdq3tkgc4c2t

 

Why it matters:
The Saud family says "don't be a pvssy, Donnie"

Scoop: Saudi defense minister says Trump not bombing Iran would embolden regime

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/31/saudi-us-strike-iran-kbs-trump

 

Trump has indeed boxed himself in a corner. Walking away now would make him look very weak.

Hard to get a read of what is going on. Im giving it a 50 percent chance of a serious bombing campaign (a week ago I would have said 99 percent)

The alternative would be for Iran and US doing some backroom dealings and allow for a symbolic strike or perhaps a new nuclear deal, to provide for an off-ramp.

 

Yesterday the US was moving Patriot systems from Japan to the Middle East. Kind of shocking that we would move anti-China defenses, but I guess they are thinking this is going to remove the threat if Iran once and for all so we can devote more force against China once it's all over.

 

And to think some people ridiculed the idea that China and Russia viewed Iran as a red flag. They know they're next if Iran falls.

The timing of the naval exercise gave an out to Trump who was able to save face while backing off this time.

Russia and China will keep arming Iran to the teeth