Iran: the collapse

China does. Their DF-ZF is in service, and they have multiple other models of glide vehicles for anti-shipping purposes. In the 2025 parade they revealed a couple types of hypersonic cruise missiles, but we know nothing of their status. I don't think anyone doubts they are in the lead in this tech.

 

I would think that if a carrier was hit at the water line with a coconut at hypersonic speed...it would sink the boat.

 

No, it's an actual maneuvering body. You can just look at a picture of it and see that it isn't a simple re-entry vehicle.

 

The whole point of having a hypersonic lifting body is that it isn't going to be high or ballistic or predictable when it's anywhere close to you. There is no vulnerable stage.

 

Iranian TV has been hacked, and all channels are now showing "Shah" Reza Pahlavi speeches.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mcpuywoef22n

 

That's what the hyperspeed is about, you don't need a warhead on top of it.
Just look at that small meteorite that hit iirc Russia a few years ago at a speed of around 30,000, or was it higher km.
Iirc that fragment only weighed about a kilo.
I think scientist call it kinetic impact or something like that.
There was mentioned an application of a hypervelocity weapon, which would, like you use a shotgun, spread a cloud of a couple of decimeters long rods hailing down at hypersonic speed on the target.
I don't think you can defend against such a cloud of rods coming at you. You have to take them out all, with no exception.

 

Hmmmm I wonder who did the hacking? Bueller? Bueller?

 

Wasn't the US because we don't like that Shah guy.

 

Who's we?
Can't imagine the Iranians do like him. His father did the same the ayatollas are doing now, murdering big scale the opposition in the streets and hospitals.

 

The government.

Pro-Shah slogans and graffiti were ubiquitous in the protests. I believe that that isn't necessarily a real interest in bringing him in to lead, but as a symbol of wanting drastic change.

 

The Abraham Lincoln group is two days away. Flocks of transports and refueling aircraft are flying from America towards the bases that would be used in an attack in Iran. We're still on the path to violence.

 

Trump TACOed on that, but tonight he again said he would put 25% tariffs on any nation doing business with Iran.

I assume he TACOed when someone told him that it would only mean a tariff on China and he didn't want to do that and now he's totally forgotten and trying the tariff again for the first time.

Is it even worth listening to Trump? He uses the hardest language on things that never happen.

 

So now the rumors are that multiple Middle Eastern nations are demanding air protection from Iranian retaliation for the probable American strike. Multiple cargo aircraft left the US today headed for the area presumably carrying Patriots and similar equipment. So we have to wait for that stuff to be set up I guess.

 

I thought they had nothing left to launch?

 

A take that is rarely discussed is that at its core, this is about geography and trade routes.

Iran sits at a critical crossroads between China, Russia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Alongside Russia and China, Iran is part of broader Eurasian efforts to expand land-based trade corridors, including planned railways and infrastructure linking Asia to Europe. These routes don’t replace maritime trade but they reduce US leverage over global commerce by moving a portion of trade outside US-dominated sea lanes, chokepoints and financial controls.

Control over oceans, shipping insurance, sanctions enforcement and maritime chokepoints gives Washington enormous influence over who trades, how and at what cost.

Expanded Eurasian rail and land routes would lessen reliance on maritime pathways where the US and its allies hold outsized influence and make sanctions harder to enforce & easier to bypass. This would strengthen economic integration among US rivals and embed Iran into a major trade network the US cannot easily dominate or exclude.

From that perspective, Iran cannot be allowed to fully integrate the Russia-China alliance and according to US think-thanks, must be balkanized with the Persian majority ending up on a landlocked territory.

Historically, global powers has usually depended on influence over Eurasia so the US can't ignore this nor allow it to happen. This is also why we're seeing Russia and China more involved in helping the Iranians defend themselves

 

I think I made this point already in the Iran war thread, but I might remember wrong. Iirc I pointed at it when one of the posters pointed at the choke points for China in the sea routes.
But that is something that might be gone too.
There's no American base left in the Phillipines, and just yesterday I watched an episode from a Dutch reporter about the South Chinese sea, and he heared about a new deploiment of marines on the coast of that sea. So he went to look for them, but he couldnot find any. The only thing he saw were abandoned and overgrown baracks from the Vietnam war and retired marines, who live there, because it's far cheaper than the USA.
He went out in that sea with Phillipine to contested islands, and the place is littered with Chinese coast guard vessels.

 

Iranian banks have asked Iran's Central Bank for 5.6 quadrillion rials (around $3.8 billion), and the Central Bank has agreed to print and loan 2 quadrillion rials (around $1.36 billion) to the banks, many of which are insolvent. - Mehr

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) January 26, 2026

Iranian banks have asked Iran's Central Bank for 5.6 quadrillion rials (around $3.8 billion), and the Central Bank has agreed to print and loan 2 quadrillion rials (around $1.36 billion) to the banks, many of which are insolvent. - Mehr

 

That kind of action isn't without consequence. The inflation rate in Iran (from Iran's own government numbers) was 60% in January alone.

 

I do wonder how Turkey is viewing all of this.

 

A message from the Saudi State Information Agency says "The crown prince of Saudi Arabia told the president of Iran that he will not allow the use of airspace or land in any military actions against Tehran".

Translated into English: "Please don't shoot at us".

 

I thought the threat of Iranian missiles was eliminated after the Tanman/bibi campaign.