Iran: the collapse

If they have already thought things through, why did the aircraft carriers and AWACS etc move into position three or four weeks ago, but they are only now redeploying their amphibious assault troops from Japan into theatre? Shouldn’t they have done that as part of their initial deployment, instead of having the oil markets go haywire?

if they thought this through, shouldn’t their National Defence Strategy published a few months ago have outlined how much of a risk Iran was, and how they would counter it? Instead, here is their foreseen long term strategy, published November 2025:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

It is clear they got bounced into this war by the israelis, and they thought an air war would be enough. Now they think 2500-5000 marines will be enough. If that doesn’t work they will have to escalate again.

The war aims of the israeli-American forces is either to force regime change, or to be able to significantly degrade the Iranian military without incurring a significant military, economic or strategic cost (such as loss of alliances with the gulf states), with a view to repeating this until an actual regime change happens. So they want to basically pepper the Iranians with air strikes for months and months without having to put their assets and people at risk on the ground, and without having the gulf states or global economy impacted.

The war aims of the Iranians is to survive, and to impose such an economic, military and strategic cost on the israelis and Americans that they will decide that the cost of attacking again is too great to NOT try a political settlement that is acceptable to the Iranians.

Each escalation leading towards ground troops getting involved favours the Iranian war aims, unless the israeli-American military forces can indeed conquer the country and their statesmen can find a political solution that allows them to keep a pro-israeli regime in power in Iran after they conquer it (or they can keep it fragmented). I don’t doubt they can destroy the bulk of the Iranian conventional military forces. I don’t think they can force the Iranians to give up after that, and I don’t think they have the level of statesmanship to achieve a political solution.

 

To what end?
Occupying it will only mean Iran stops pumping oil to it. This will mean huge problems for India if no oil from Iran comes to the country.
Will be fun for the marines (5000 if I understand the info about it correct) sitting on a tiny island of about 5 by 1 mile large without any shelter like caves or so.

 

It is because they are all stupid and you are smart. How are you not the coach of Real Madrid and the biggest general of Earth we don't know

 

Seems to me the mod should start punishing the one who for the last two pages, or whenever he comes in, is calling names/accusations/insulting.

 

What else are they supposed to do? Assault the beaches on the mainland? That's insane. It wouldn't take much planning to turn that into the worst of the Island Hopping from WW2.

 

If I can ignore the riveting 3 page discussion about the letter S you too can ignore me

 

Painful blunder: how Trump refused Zelensky's drone shield and is now souring for him
The US is facing attacks in the Middle East by cheap Iranian kamikaze drones. At least eleven American bases in the region have not only been hit, but also damaged. Expensive defense systems fail. This brings to light one of the biggest tactical blunders in this war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered the US a defensive shield against these drones as early as last summer. The White House rejected the plan. Donald Trump then more or less dismissed Zelensky as a slick salesman who wanted to scam the US. Zelensky personally put the proposal on the table at the White House on August 18 last year. The usually well-informed American news site Axios reveals this.

Shield with drones and radars
The Ukrainians, tried and tested by years of Russian drone attacks, warned that Iran was rapidly refining its notorious Shahed drones. They proposed to use their technology to build a shield of interceptor drones and radars in Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf states.
The White House led by President Donald Trump let the offer go. According to Axios' sources, U.S. officials call that rejection "one of the biggest mistakes of the war."

Expensive defense system not efficient
Extremely expensive defense systems such as Patriot or Thaad do not appear to be efficient against massive swarms of dirt-cheap drones.
Zelensky confirms that on X. "We wanted to sign a big drone production deal with the US, but we needed the approval of the White House," he states. He hopes that the US will now say yes 'after such challenges as we are now seeing in the Middle East'. 'It involved different types of drones and air defence,' he writes. 'They work as one system and can protect against hundreds or thousands of Iranian Shaheds or missiles.'

Iran has damaged eleven US military bases in the region
The New York Times

Since the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran at the end of February, the Americans have been paying the price. According to a reconstruction by The New York Times, Iran has damaged at least seventeen American locations in the region, including eleven military bases (almost half of all American installations). Six American soldiers were killed in an attack in Kuwait. Expensive radar destroyed The Pentagon was not prepared for this new way of warfare. Their own defense systems are no match for large numbers of cheap drones. For example, images circulate of a drone destroying an important American communication system in Bahrain, with a price tag of half a billion dollars.

Ukraine is now rushing to the rescue.

Now that the need is greatest, the US and the Gulf states are looking to Kyiv for help after all. Ukraine is hastily sending specialized air defense teams to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian experts have also started working at an American base in Jordan.

 

Well, what were those things ment for the USA shipped from South Korea to the ME?

North Korea fires ten ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan
North Korea fired ten ballistic missiles in the direction of the Sea of Japan on Saturday. This is reported by the South Korean army.
This is said to have happened a few days after North Korea had warned of "terrible consequences" due to the ongoing annual military exercises of South Korea and the US. Japan reported 'a ballistic missile'. The Japanese coast guard said that the projectile seemed to have fallen into the sea. North Korea last fired short-range missiles in the direction of the Sea of Japan, also known as the Baltic Sea, on January 27.

 

It's funny that you get so pissy when one points out all the us military failures. Your record in large scale military operations has been shit since the second world war. Shall we look at the list?

Korea War - us ignored chinas warning, that they would intervene if the us pushed farther north. US did anyway. War "ended" pretty much where China wanted the border to be. US failed to achieve it's military goals. With a lot of good will you can call that one a draw.

Vietnam War: North Vietnamese et al. victory

Afghanistan war: Taliban et al. victory

Iraq - Shit went completley off the rails with the rise of Isis us forces fought them ever since. Final result still outstanding I guess?

But this time surely boots on the ground will mean the mighty us will finally win one of those right?

 

He really needs to give the juvenile namecalling a bucharest

 

Uhm, he's not advocating US boots on the ground.
I think, but I could be wrong, he's advocating Israel can Gaza-raise Iran to the ground.
However that's impossible, given the size of Iran compared to the small strip of land Gaza is.
The cost of it would sink the Israeli economy and it might be a millstone hanging on the US neck, pulling it's economy down.
Let alone the global strategic impact of the waste of ammo.
The only cost effective way Israel could do that is by throwing their entire stash of nukes on Iran.
Wonder if there are enough air defense missiles available/left to put down incoming nukes from Pakistan.

 

Hey, hands off of one of my favourite CL winners.

 

I am clearly American yeeehaaa

 

Now there's something wrong with Iranian genetics according to Trump. Yet, "how dare people criticize the US"

Trump on Iran - "They're just bad... Their genetics are not exactly your genetic. It's a terrible thing"

They started with "Amalek." They moved to insults. Now they're attacking Iranian "genetics". This is how you prepare a population for mass murder. pic.twitter.com/EktSPCKFk5

— Ounka (@OunkaOnX) March 14, 2026

 

I didn't claim that you are american I claimed that you get pissy when one points out that the us military isn't omnipotent.

 

Instead of the moronic stance "we got to do something against the blockade" by doing something futile that actually does change shit at all, the bombing of military compounds on it, they could start thinking about what really has effect.
I'm really hoping for those marines, the bombing wasnot meant as paving the way to occupy it.
I'm not a military tactician or strategy know how man, but I fail to see the benefit of putting 5000 men on a tiny island just 10 miles from the Iranian coast.
Maybe those who think they got those insights can tell how having 5000 marines sitting duck at the doorstep of Iran is of any help.
Let alone the logistic nightmare of keeping them provided with food and ammo.
Oh, and how exactly are they going to get them on the island anyway?
I truly hope they're not thinking of parachuting them in.

 

Yes you did

But hey neat oh look another person who invents an argument I didn't make then destroy MY argument with "facts and logic"

 

Your argument is that the us military can make peoples lives miserable. And they surley can. And if that's the war goal the us sets out to achieve, fine. But the goal of war - usually - is to make your enemy bow down to your demands. The us fails regularly at that.

 

He’s right, you know.

What you seem to be missing is that strategy had to be connected to capabilities. Given Iran’s capabilities, both before the war started and now, compared to the capabilities of the US + Israel, they’re doing a pretty good job. Iran believes that America’s weakness is oil prices before the midterms, and their strategy is to leverage that to get America to back off. It has kinda sorta worked up to now.

 

Yes!

During the Iraq War, I made the point that the home teams are all but undefeated since WW II, the only exception being arguably Malaysia (it wasn’t called Malaysia at the time.) it’s not the 1850s anymore. It’s obvious to anyone who knows anything about the world, just friggin’ obvious, practically as true as gravity, but imperial powers keep trying to control nations 5000 or 10,000 miles away with military force. It doesn’t work anymore.

(If y’all want my theory, it boils down to two main things.

1. With the spread of the idea of consent of the governed, average people in the targeted nation have a stake too. It’s not like it was in, say, India in the distant past, where to the average peasant it didn’t matter whether they were ruled by a local despot or Parliament so they didn’t fight. Heck, Muslims in India might have preferred the British because at least they wouldn’t have to worry about oppression from Hindus.

2. Western morality is a lot less racist than it was 200 years ago so the West is less bloodthirsty, less willing to massacre and/or starve citizens at scale. One obscure war was the US subjugating the Philippines after the Spanish American War. I’ve read a little about how we did that, the tactics. America’s citizens wouldn’t put up with that now. Soldiers wouldn’t so willingly follow orders.

Taking these two together, the morale and motivation equations have flipped. What used to be a major advantage for the imperial power has become an insurmountable advantage for the object of colonialism/neo colonialism.)

 

More on asymmetric warfare

The drones are a novel challenge for the U.S., its allies and the countries caught in the crossfire. Adversaries will be watching America’s response closely.

The weapon’s versatility may allow Iran to prolong the war by straining enemy resources, a tactic attractive for cash-strapped states, experts say. Iran is a pioneer of the technology, which it sold to Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It has challenged the economics of warfare. While the U.S. remains firm in its air dominance, Iran’s drone campaign has forced the targeted countries to use expensive munitions for interceptions.

“It’s kind of like the ultimate symbol of asymmetric warfare,” said Joe Dyke, director of programmes for Airwars, a nonprofit that tracks civilian harm in conflict zones.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/securi...-defense-video-image-shahed-attack-rcna262531

 

I very strongly disagree with this. I don’t think people feared Iraq. I didn’t.

Unless youre talking before they invaded Kuwait.