Iran: the collapse

If only Sarah had not cast out Ishmael!

 

You might be mixing two different things: the nature of rule and the capacity to dominate. My point isn’t that Israel would rule the region like Britain or Macedonia did, it’s that small states with superior military, technology and organization can dominate much larger populations. That’s a structural fact of history.

Macedonia and Britain had overwhelming military and organizational superiority. Israel today has the same kind of structural advantage: nuclear weapons, unmatched air power, cyber dominance, intelligence superiority and a cohesive, high‑tech military. The GCC and wider Arab world are fragmented (Iran itself is a fragmented state), dependent on foreign protection and lack comparable capability.

If Israel ever fought Iran without US restraint, Israel would eventually prevail and every other regional state would submit to Jerusalem because they cannot match Israel’s capabilities. I say Jerusalem because that's where they ultimately want central power to be - notice how it's been relatively free of major bombardments since hitting holy sites would alienate the entire Muslim world

Population size doesn’t matter when the power imbalance is this one‑sided, the current US empire is proof of that. Almost sound like I've been throwing flowers at Israel for over an hour - so much about being "antisemitic"

 

A US KC-135 went down over Iraq today. It appears to have occurred due to a mid-air collision as a second KC-135 was also damaged in the incident and it wasn't the result of hostile or friendly fire. The second KC-135 was able to land in Tel Aviv.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-mi...-as-status-of-crew-is-unknown-officials-said/

 

Remarkable Iranian target not being attacked:


Kharg is the beating heart of Iran's economy. As much as 90 percent of Iran's crude oil leaves the country through this strategic terminal. Yet the island has so far been remarkably spared during the ongoing American-Israeli bombing.
Behind the scenes in Washington, a fierce debate is raging: is the U.S. cutting this vital lifeline, or is the likelihood of a global economic shockwave too great?

Kharg is a coral island about 8 kilometers long, strategically located more than 30 kilometers off the Iranian coast. Where the rest of the coastline is too shallow and silty, a nightmare for giant oil tankers, the waters around Kharg are deep enough. Satellite images show huge loading docks sticking out into the sea like tentacles. It is the beating heart where the pipelines from the vast oil fields of central and western Iran meet. Interesting fact: this Iranian cash cow was built in the 50s by the American oil conglomerate Amoco, long before it fell into the hands of the religious regime during the 1979 revolution.

Normally, about one and a half million barrels of crude oil pass through here every day. However, out of fear of an American attack, the regime recently increased that volume to three million barrels per day, in order to be able to export quickly. In addition, the island houses another eighteen million barrels as reserves.

In free fall

A bombing of Kharg would hit the Iranian regime in the heart, but the economic havoc is at least as great. Experts warn that destroying virtually all of Iran's daily oil exports would plunge the global energy market into freefall. According to energy expert Neil Quilliam of think tank Chatham House, the oil price, which has already peaked at $120 per barrel due to the ongoing unrest, could quickly shoot past the $150 per barrel mark, he explains to The Guardian. Former intelligence officer Lynette Nusbacher warns of a prolonged, strong disruption and an equally sharp rise in prices. After all, the market is already tight with nerves: the fear of Iranian retaliation has de facto closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic. As a result, another 3.5 million barrels, mainly from Iraq, remain in the ports every day.


Final blow
An attack on Kharg would be the final blow. In addition, a devastation would have a bitter side effect: it would immediately deprive a future Iranian government of the oil revenues that are desperately needed for reconstruction.
Because a classic bombing entails too many economic risks, an alternative scenario is circulating in American defense circles, according to news site Axios: the capture of the island. Former Pentagon adviser Michael Rubin sees this as the ultimate way to financially strangle the ayatollahs. No oil exports mean no income, and with an empty state coffers, Tehran simply cannot pay its civil servants and military anymore. Government sources firmly emphasize that the White House is not aiming for an invasion, but rather for surgical actions by elite troops. President Trump is keeping his cards close to his chest for the time being. He does not rule out the deployment of ground troops, provided there is 'a very good reason' for it.

Bizarre stalemate
Nevertheless, this plan also raises major strategic questions. Analysts point to the completely bizarre stalemate that would arise after a successful commando action. The Americans may have a firm grip on the export ports on Kharg, but in doing so they also make themselves a target of Iran. The result is obvious: the US is not pumping anything, Iran cannot export anything and the world market is still panicking. Meanwhile, Tehran threatens harsh reprisals if Kharg is attacked. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf made it clear on Thursday: any form of aggression against the strategic islands in the Gulf will irrevocably lead to Iran "abandoning all restraint." The chess game around Kharg is therefore balancing on a tightrope. One miscalculation may be enough to plunge not only the Middle East, but the entire world economy into chaos.

 

Well, this is great for American oil companies. Their products aren't more expensive to produce but the prices they can charge went up a lot. They're going to price gouge like there's no tomorrow. It kind of sucks for everyone who has to buy their products, and also for everyone who buys things that are transported using their products, but it's ********ing amazing to be an American oil company right now.

 

This is dumb. Fragmenting Iran would cause all sorts of roving warlords and terror organizations that'd make ISIS look like angels in effect and size.

 

For a liddle perspective...

 

That’s like saying that someone who kills someone in self-defense is being “aggressive.”

 

First of all Israel hasnot got the economical clout to be able to dominate the region.
Second the first to confront Israel's efforts into fragmenting Iran are Pakistan and Turkey, both not keen on an ethnic clashing in Iran.
Pakistan:

Turkey

 

Why isn’t this being played on a loop by the Democrats?

He was quite accurate about his President though, Netanyahu has done exactly what Trump said he would do.

 

Awww...bless your liddle Caroliney heart. What's more Southern h-white man with pink pop-collared polo shirt driving through his gated community in a golf cart than accusing someone else of unspeakable evil yet blissfully walking around a land with the shrieks of tortured slaves a-ringin through the magnolias & Spanish moss.

 

Except he’s wrong? It costs about $1b a day to bomb Iran… Universal healthcare in the US is estimated to cost roughly $3 trillion a year. That’s a bit more than 8 days…

If he means Canadian UHC, that cost CAN$400b last year… I don’t think the exchange rate is that bad

 

What's next?

 

Well, hopefully Trump dies in his sleep or the Iranians turn Mar A Lago to rubble and there are no survivors.

 

Have you seen The Doom Thread?

 

Regarding the thread title...

https://www.reuters.com/business/me...-is-not-risk-collapse-say-sources-2026-03-11/

 

Duh. La Invasion de Cuba. Rubio will be appointed viceroy. Mob brings back gambling & prostitution. MCGA.

 

Actually I want to revisit this, because now I'm thinking that Trump and crew might have believed as Robert Borden said. In fact, to go a little further than one of the points in the article Knave posted, I think they fell for one the great blunders of war. The easy victory of Venezuela provided the US with confidence and at least the belief of getting new resources, so it let them think they can take on a bigger target that they might have thought twice about otherwise.

It's like how Germany's quick victory over France gave them confidence, lots of fuel, and large numbers of trucks, giving them the impression they could conquer Russia.

 

What a schmuck...from the LAST northern state to abolish slavery! Probably slugs his way each morning into the Rotten Apple to shine shoes on Wall Street, where tens of thousands of slaves were bought & sold (even 'rented') at an "official" slave market. I'll wager my WC tix that your ancestors owned slaves...or even a southern plantation (as most were owned by northerners); chances of even better that they profited from the sales TAX collected on every slave sold in NYC.

Keep using that Chase or Citibank card in your wallet, hypocrite...

 

You’re still a psychopath who thinks death is funny.

 

Trump has a new interview coming out tomorrow on Fox with Kilmeade.

Some early release quotes include one where states " those captains should show some guts and sail through the strait".