Iran: the collapse

Or international war criminal. YMMV.

 

It helps to have Venezuela as a new source of energy

 

Is that a contest that matters right now?

Yes and no. I think you're missing a more subtle point: Netanyahu knows that he's not going to have Trump around forever. Trump could very well be neutered within a year. So, from Netanyahu's perspective, it's rational to move forward against Iran now with a pliant Trump before the mid-term election cycle really starts up this spring and summer. In other words, Netanyahu's window of opportunity was closing. So he took it. Even if he doesn't achieve his complete aim, he will consider any degradation of Iran's threat a worthwhile win.

 

I think it's more a miscalculation from him.
He most likely thought the air superiority, well..I think a better description is air monopoly, would enable them to eliminate the threat to the oil bottleneck. They failed.
This isnot a miscalculation that doesnot affect Israel...it is going to hurt them.
It's like the betrayal of the yanks versus Europe/The EU that made them suddenly aware of the existential threat the USA poses to them.
The economic shockwave that's coming inevitably shows the EU that turning a blind eye to the reasons of the ME problems are an existential threat too.
Economically, militarily, but not least from a refugee pov.

 

Think this post isnot going to age well.

 

His approval is up & down and typically spikes when he destroys a neighbor. Majority do not want him pardoned for his crimes. Religious nuts love him, of course.

 

Why would he care about that?

Most of israel’s energy is gas, and the bulk of that comes from Egypt.

The bulk of its crude oil comes from Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and west Africa. Hardly any comes via Hormuz.

Eilat is the only port on the Red Sea, far away from most of israel’s urban centres, and it has been blockaded by the Houthis for a year so is not really impacted by this.

So closing Hormuz has little practical direct effect on the israelis, and that’s all the israelis care about.

What it does do is affect its proxies, especially the Europeans and Gulf states, who may be reconsidering whether it is worthwhile helping “friends” like the israelis who start wars of aggression without consulting them and put their allies at physical and economic risk.

 

Well now you do.

The war Poland fought against Nazi Germany wasn’t a war of aggression by the Poles.

 

What do you mean ?

 

Idiots call Trump a genius and hero too. So what?

 

I know the military is not responsible for the 25th Amendment. My comment is that if ordered to make a nuclear strike under these circumstances, the military will say it is not a lawful order and the cabinet will step in with the 25th Amendment.

 

Poland fought a war of self-defence against Germany.

Germany fought a war of aggression against Poland.

 

I, for one, do not see that as something that is likely.

 

It was the French that fought a war of non-aggression against the Germans.

[Batsignal lights up in @babaorum ’s batcave].

 

The food issue is critical and yet another reason why they are on their way to capitulate and fulfilling one of Iran's objectives - getting the US out of the region.

As showed below from Reuters, they are looking to deepen ties with the China and Russia (EU could be complicated due to Iran).


Even if the GCC pivots away from the US, the conflict has already damaged their most valuable asset: the perception that the Gulf is a safe, stable, reliable energy corridor and that loss cannot be undone by changing partners. This would explains why Russia and China abstained yesterday during the UNSC resolution condemning Iran.

While toppling the Islamist Government is unlikely according to even western intelligence, Iran will be severely damaged once all of this ends. They will have every incentives to use all their leverages on GCC nations to fund their reconstructions even further industrialize. Conditions can be created to force GCC to effectively pay Iran through dependence, concessions and negotiated arrangements brokered by China and Russia

Then again, this clashes with Israel's own objectives. Another round down the road seems inevitable.

 

But they are. Russian leaders and state affiliated media are calling for genocide.