Iran: the collapse

I have a totally not autistic fascination with Japanese minesweepers of the Cold War and build models of them. I pick up things, usually from the magazines I have that I can't actually read, but I'm sure anyone with actual experience would think I only have a rough surface level of knowledge of the subject.

My interest in military subjects in general isn't that uncommon, and you can find lots of very popular YouTube channels and Twitter / BlueSky people that publish news or histories. It's just that you can go to an airshow and find any number of people to talk about details of jets, or go to a wargame and talk tactics, or go to a forum and talk history, but who talks about minesweeping? Not sexy. I think most people are drawn to the mano-a-mano aspect of conflict and I like the whole heist-film man-vs-designer's creation thing. I'm definitely into heist films too.

 

pardon my interruption of the geopolitical military gabfest -- but who is the default national squad that replaces the IRANIAN squad this summer?? does FIFA follow a clear back-up protocol for a qualifying nation 'pulling out' of a tournament?? If there's a thread on this, I've overlooked it...

 

I was thinking about that myself, but I don't think it's been decided:

https://www.si.com/soccer/three-potential-replacements-iran-2026-world-cup

Should be a discussion for FIFA and Tournaments: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forums/fifa-and-tournaments.262/

 

A military historian would call this a "fleet in being". Basically, a fleet can be bottled up in port, but you have to change your policy to respect the possibility of them coming out. Iran definitely has mines and boats in underground storage, more or less safe at the moment. If they were to actually go out, they'd probably get blown up. But everyone has to fear that possibility.

It's like how the US and Israel can blow up hundreds of Iranian government buildings, but they have yet to blow up the abstract concept of "Iranian government". The US and Israel can blow up Iranian ships, but how do they fight the abstract concept of fear of what mines could do?

 

many thanks for the SI link, Knave!
...waiting for something "official" from FIFA, regarding Iran XI

 

Did we discuss this crazy Iran wants to launch drone strikes against California thing?

Because I missed it, if we did.

https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-ir...ifornia-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820

Anyway, if I die in an Iranian drone strike, know that I'm counting on you guys to Hail Grimes and keep The Doom Thread going!

 

The only possible target is San Diego.

 

They can go farther than that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_drones

 

HAIL GR SPEJIC!!!

 

People discussed it. Some accurately identified it as likely government propaganda. Doesn't serve Iran to do that and they don't have the capabilities to send drones. Seems like obvious scare tactics in a build up for a false flag attack.

 

But, realistically, Iran can't send drones all over California - they would get a handful out before they got blowed up, wherever they're launching these drones from. And I don't want to dismiss the importance of Truckee, but if you've only got a handful of drones to attack targets, Truckee is pretty far down the list. San Diego, LA, the Bay, Sacramento are all better targets for whatever limited number of drones they could possibly launch.

 

Trump has been a busy man, gotta keep his golf game up. Who has time for such things as approving FIFAs replacement nation.

 

They're supposed to decide Iraq's issue by the end of the week. My feeling is if Iran pulls out they will give that spot to Iraq, especially if Iraq is unable to make the playoff game at the end of the month.

 

Realistically, the whole thing is ridiculous.

 

When India picks up the phone to ask permission to Iran to use the Strait...what does that tell you?

Iran's in control as of now

BREAKING: India’s External Affairs Minister called Iran’s Foreign Minister and asked for permission to use the Strait of Hormuz. He received it.

That sentence should be read slowly. The world’s largest democracy, the fifth-largest economy, a nuclear-armed state with the fourth… pic.twitter.com/b21398Q9D8

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 12, 2026

 

Have you heard of a country called israel?

 

Your point about legal control is correct: Iran does not legally control the Strait of Hormuz under international law.

However, control of a chokepoint isn’t just about legal ownership, it’s about who can deny safe passage. In naval strategy, this is called sea denial. A state doesn’t need sovereignty to control a waterway; it only needs the ability to make transit unsafe or prohibitively risky.

We saw this during the Tanker War in the 1980s. Iran didn’t legally control the Persian Gulf but by mining waters and attacking tankers it made shipping so dangerous that traffic dropped and insurers refused coverage. The US eventually launched an operation to escort tankers. Legally the waterway remained open but in practice whoever could threaten ships determined whether transit occurred. That is the essence of sea denial.

Powerful states sometimes impose their will through coercive force even without legal authority like the US military’s January 2026 operation in Venezuela that included airstrikes in Caracas killing civilians and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, actions internationally criticized as violations of the UN Charter. The US has used coercive tactics to achieve favorable terms in the past. Iran’s threats in the Strait of Hormuz show how leverage and the ability to make transit unsafe can override legal status in practice. That's what I meant by "control"