Iran: the collapse

That’s what happened

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-now-moonwalking-away-from-regime-change-as-fast-as-he-can

 

Don't forget the solar panel companies.
Together they form a marriage made in heaven

 

Again, he can do that but if I were Iranian would ignore what he says and keep up the attacks on his gulf allies and bases until there is a settlement acceptable to them.

If he still withdraws it shows his allies that he will cut and run at the first opportunity, and if he is forced back to the fight it shows he is not in control.

A ceasefire to allow the American economy to recover whilst still being attacked by israel, still under sanctions and no political resolution of the underlying issues is a slow death.

The Iranians have gone through this before in the Iran Iraq war and they could have settled that war on the same terms as they eventually settled, but Khomeini refused for years to do that. He said accepting the ceasefire was worse than drinking poison.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-07-20-mn-6124-story.html

BBC is reporting that the Iranians have said that any Arab or European country that expels israeli and American ambassadors will have freedom to pass through the strait of Hormuz.

 

Reparations for the US/Israel for environmental cleanup and rebuilding of the desalination plant. Seems like a moderate possibility

 

It looks like some ships are slipping through the Strait of Hormuz by simply turning off their AIS. While internet to Iran is cut off, I'm sure there's enough for the government to log into AIS tracking sites to see who is where. Iran can't use radar to track ships because even if any radars were still un-blown-up, turning them on would quickly result in a change in their state of blown upness. That doesn't mean it's totally safe, but probably worth France's risk. It will certainly make them look good.

 

I didn't know that IRGC were capable of trolling of their own...

Statement

• Any Arab or European country that expels the Israeli and American ambassadors from its territory will enjoy full authority and freedom of transit through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow.

 

Grampa Trump just finished his rambling speech and got asked about the Iran school massacre and the fact that there’s video of a tomahawk hitting the site.

He said the Iranians also have tomahawks so it could have been them.

The guy is so dumb it’s ridiculous.

 

Why arenot the yanks trying?

 

Because they don’t want to risk having a billion dollar aircraft carrier sunk by a 30,000 dollar shahed drone.

 

I was laughed at a few pages ago, when someone quoted a post from another thread in which I assumed trillions of damage in case of the Hormuz closure.
Did we get to the first trillion yet?

 

Uhm, we were told by a couple of posters in here the Iranians can't sink an aircraft carrier (which I actually agree with, as long as the Chinese donot supply them with those hypervelocity things).
Why does this admiral not listen to those posters? What does he know about the Iranian capabilities. Think he knows better?

 

Deeply sick man, equally disgusting regime.

 

I am pretty sure it is next to impossible to sink it in the open sea, but why would you risk bringing it into range of land based drones? It would take just one lucky or clever strike.

Anyway I doubt they would send a carrier group in there to escort oil tankers, it would probably be a number of smaller ships.

 

Well, sometimes it's good to get a message strong and loud across (I bet the tweet has been copied and reused byAmeicans opposed to the war, including maga maggots) and then kill it.
Kind of seeing a picture once and unable to unsee it anymore.

 

Trump just said he was shocked when they attacked the Gulf states, he couldn’t believe it. He has waitforit’s levels of foresight.

 

Well, that seems to me an unsafe bet, because iirc the Chinese and the Russians too lately, supply the Iranians with ral time satelite images of what ships are where. So they don't need radar, just put in the coordinates of the ship's position, I guess.

 

Didnot you Yanks noticed your government yesterday used the same language, almost word by word, spoken by Truman....before he nuked Japan?

 

THIS...

George Conway: “I would never call a President of the United States of any party a ********ing piece of shit on a podcast, until today. He is a ********ing piece of shit. This is where we are. I want to go back to an America where I can’t make the case that the president is a ********ing piece of shit”

 

Going by what Iranian officials and IRGC are saying, they dont seem to have an intention of halting the hostilities.

The US and Israel came prepared for a a short burst war or blietzkrieg attack and decapitation of the leadership. They were banking on people rising up against the IRI or in in the alternative collapsing the state (they bombed hospitals, police stations and other civil service institutions in the hope of achieving that goal).
That didnt happen. And Iran managed to mount a counter response relatively swiftly. There are a couple of reasons for that I think. After the Iraq war and invasion, Iran laid out a plan for a potential future US war/invasion. One of those were to decentralize command and control into a number of autonomous regions, each of which with their own command that would be able to prosecute a war without a central authority (in the case they were decapitated in a shock and awe operation).

What happened is what I suspected would happen. With the very first bombs landing on Iran, among which hit the supreme leader (making a martyr out of him) and the murder of the school girls in Minab, those bombs changed the politics in Iranian society. They infused nationalism in the collective leadership and the Iranian society, fusing the two together. I never subscribed to the belief of the LA Iranians or Pahlavists, that thought Iranians would welcome bombings of their own country and seizing the moment to overthrow the IRI. Like I said, the war has (as I see observe it) chabged the politics in Iranian society.

This being a war of survival makes Irans responses all the more unpredictable.
I dont think Trump et al planned for what came next, with Iran having successfully hit the US bases in the GCC. They have hit pretty much every THAAD radar and other early warnings systems in those countries.

This is now a war of attrition, which is more favorable to Iran than the US/Israel, that did not come prepared for such a scenario.
Iran will take a lot of battering, and many more lives will be lost. But if Im reading them right, they are willing to absorbe those punches and some more pain (having already absorbed the initial shock and awe).
I think they are going to fight a long attritional war to raise the costs of this war. Their calculus seem to be that stopping the war now could be suicidal in the long term.

 

There were claims by the Iranians (unverified, which is why I didn’t post them at the time) that the Iranians sent drones searching for the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group and they got close, so the carrier moved much further away (1000 km) from the coast.
https://www.malaysiasun.com/news/278905506/iran-claims-it-forced-us-aircraft-carrier-to-retreat

There were war games another time when a Swedish diesel powered sub got within torpedo range of a US aircraft carrier (USS Ronald Reagan?) undetected because it was a decades old diesel-electric and not more modern nuclear, and because they have a different sound profile the sonar didn’t pick them up.

All it takes is one moment of luck or ingenuity and it’s a disaster, so that’s why they keep them well away from theatre of operations.

 

Someone made this observation which I agree with.

At this point, there's no stopping the war until the US exit West Asia. Once they do, the GCC will have to make a "new deal" with Iran for trade, economics and security. We could see a situation where Iran demands a cut of everything going through the strait to rebuild the infrastructure in Iran with GCC becoming it clients states.

If that's their goal, then they won't stop now. A cease fire would just benefit the US who would regroup and come back. At least, all those bases will be shutdown for good.