The regime that lost the war, and the people | Iran International 'We are lost': former MP torches Iranian intelligence over Israeli strikes | Iran International Iran's Turmoil Deepens After War with Israel - Middle East Forum "Beyond the numbers, a sense of political humiliation permeates Iranian society. Israel’s airstrikes exposed the Islamic Republic’s inability to foresee or counter a major attack. This failure, many Iranians argue, has stripped away any remaining image of the regime as a strong or competent state. The shock has only reinforced the perception of a government in terminal decline—a government whose structural weaknesses already had devastated its economy, environment, and social cohesion. As one Iranian analyst observed, “Humiliation is a form of symbolic death that not only ends a government’s legitimacy but also erases the possibility of reclaiming its story.”" On top of that, Tehran just weeks away from "day zero"... Tehran water crisis: Iran’s capital could be weeks away from running out of water | CNN "Iran’s capital Tehran could be weeks away from “day zero,” experts say — the day when taps run dry for large parts of the city — as the country suffers a severe water crisis. Key reservoirs are shrinking, authorities are scrambling to reduce water consumption and residents are desperately trying to conserve it to stave off catastrophe." Could Iran’s Water Shortage Fracture the Regime’s Hardline Base? - Middle East Forum "For decades, the clergy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sought credit from the regime’s dam-building. Today, they cannot distance themselves from the disaster that policy has wrought. With Tehran running dry and blackouts increasing at the height of summer, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei faces a major crisis just a month after losing a war that largely discredited him as a leader and weakened Iran’s apparatus of repression. Even regime supporters blame government incompetence and sympathize with the people. The Islamic Republic now faces a fiasco. The growing crack within the regime’s hardline base will mark the most difficult political crisis that Khamenei has ever faced." Could this be the end for the Islamic Republic?
Never forget Mahsa Amini Iran electronically surveilling women to find headscarf violations, U.N. report says - CBS News (UN) Report of the independent international fact-finding mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran... a-hrc-58-63-AV.pdf III. Continuous persecution against women, girls and others supporting human rights A. Pervasive persecution of women and girls defying the mandatory hijab 8. Two and a half years after the protests began in September 2022, women and girls in Iran continue to face systematic discrimination, in law and in practice, that permeates all aspects of their lives, particularly with respect to the enforcement of the mandatory hijab. 9. Despite pre-election assurances by the new President, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, to ease strict enforcement of mandatory hijab laws, State authorities continued to enact and impose new measures to suppress women and girls’ fundamental rights, and continued repression against those expressing solidarity with the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement. The State is increasingly reliant on State-sponsored vigilantism in an apparent effort to enlist businesses and private individuals in hijab compliance, portraying it as a civic responsibility. State rhetoric has also shifted towards explaining the refusal of women and girls to wear the mandatory hijab as being due to their purported lack of awareness or education... The report (dated 14 March 2025) is a tough read and includes shocking details about life in Iran under this horribly oppressive regime... F. LGTBQ+ persons 78. The mission continued to investigate the treatment of LGBTQ+ persons during the protests. Iran remains one of the few countries that imposes the death penalty for consensual same-sex relationships while the criminalization of LGBTQ+ persons has long been considered discriminatory by UN human rights mechanisms. This is further exacerbated by discriminatory public statements by officials, at the highest levels, against LGBTQ+ persons that have been perpetuated over decades.
A Regime Collapse Strategy for Iran - JINSA " ...Iranian society has broad support for democratic governance and normalized relations with the United States. This suggests that a secular, democratic opposition could emerge in Iran in a way that it was not present in other Middle Eastern countries. Widespread protests have swept Iran repeatedly over the twenty years, touching on almost every segment of Iranian society—students, urban middle class, teachers, laborers, rural farmers, and women. Their growing lists of grievances focus on the regime’s corruption, repression, and mismanagement of the country’s economy and natural resources. The second weakness of a regime collapse strategy is the fact that, unlike in Syria, there is no organized opposition waiting in the wings. Steps to weaken the regime will not be enough unless the Iranian people are ready and able to oppose the regime... ...The United States has taken tentative steps toward supporting the goal of regime collapse—providing Starlink access to Iranians otherwise cut off from the internet and recalling journalists for its Persian-language broadcasting service. These measures need to be expanded to ensure that Iranians have access to both objective news reporting and a means to communicate among themselves. Additional steps should be taken to weaken the regime and hasten its departure. Working with Israel’s intelligence networks inside Iran, as well as those of its European partners, the United States should be offering Iranian officials payouts and safe haven to abandon the regime. It should also make sure that the regime’s top leadership knows it has an off-ramp. Just as Assad’s decision to allow the collapse of his regime was made easier by knowing that he and his family could flee to Moscow, so too, Iran’s rulers are less likely to hold out if they believe they have options other than hanging on to power or hanging from cranes... ...The nature of a regime collapse strategy is that it does not choose who will replace the mullahs in Tehran. It is impossible to predict where and when the impetus to stand up to the regime, or a leader brave enough to do it, will emerge..."
Iran News: Regime Forms New “Defense Council” Amid Post-War Security Collapse - NCRI "Endless Repression: The Regime’s True Defense Doctrine The Defense Council’s formation coincides with an alarming surge in state violence. In recent weeks, security forces have arrested countless citizens—along with dual nationals and foreigners—under the familiar charges of “espionage” and “infiltration.” These arrests are rarely followed by real investigations. Instead, they become part of a pattern of terror: five-minute show trials, swift executions, and systemic torture. The Iranian people live under the shadow of a system where the executioner is always at work. Special prison squads raid the cells of political prisoners, brutally beat them, cover their heads, and vanish them into unknown locations. Families are left in the dark. The disappeared often never return. This is the true face of the Iran regime’s defense strategy—not sovereignty, but fear." Maybe Israel should've taken out Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when they had the chance? Trump Vetoed Israeli Plan To Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader, U.S. Officials Say ‘We wanted to eliminate Khamenei’: Israel’s Defence Minister Katz | Israel-Iran conflict News | Al Jazeera "“We wanted to eliminate Khamenei, but there was no operational opportunity,” said Katz in an interview with Israel’s Channel 13. Katz claimed that Khamenei knew an attempt on his life was on the cards, and went “underground to very great depths”, breaking off contact with commanders who replaced Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders assassinated in the first wave of Israeli strikes."
If by "we're" you mean US and Iran, I guess I'd say that we're not (yet) being governed by religious fanatics and, in terms of basic freedoms, there's really no comparison.
I agree wholeheartedly that we're also dealing with fanatics. Political fanatics who are using the levers of political power to impose their will. And, of course, the MAGA movement is propped up, enabled and elected by the Christian right. And Trump and his Christian Conservative base have been able to bend the will of the SC (i.e. Roe vs Wade). But Trump is no religious figure, quite the opposite. He's lacking a moral compass. Biden is a far greater man of faith. So yes, we're currently governed by political fanatics, not religious fanatics, and comparisons are a stretch of the imagination.
You mean the ones he ordered from China for $3 each and then sold for $59.99? Thousands of Trump Bibles were printed in China as he campaigned against trade practices | PBS News Trump, ever the snake oil salesman, perfectly willing to capitalize on the religious zeal of his followers. Just makes him an unabashed capitalist.
MAGA America is vastly different from the Islamic Republic. That should be clear. Trump is more so pandering to the religious right, he’s not any kind of religious man, not really.
I think you need more nuance in this statement. While the current head of government is not a religious fanatic, America is currently governed by a combination of religious and political fanatics. I expect the religious fanatics to ultimately triumph over the political fanatics.
Indeed. The religious right is a massive part of his base so he needs to keep them on side despite not being overly religious himself. But this is getting off topic, it didn’t take this Iran thread long for Donald Trump to make an appearance.
Well, they’re making inroads I never thought we’d see. I worry that gay marriage is next, I don’t worry that this country will ever become a theocracy. But I do expect we’ll keep seeing a roll back of progress we’ve made.
You probably should start worrying about that actually. Project 2025 is the beginning, not the end of their intentions.
Yeah many people in the US (especially on the left) are pretty disconnected from reality on this. The US still conducts military exercises daily with allies, Rubio is chumming it up with foreign emissaries at the State Dept, foreigners are still visiting the US for pleasure/work, etc.