President Ahmadinejad, IMO, was precisely the kind of president Iran needed when he was elected. He saved Iran from those who imagined they could unravel this country without even having to take a shot and without having to risk a bloody nose. But that doesn't mean he will be the right choice for the next 4 years as well. That will depend on some things that are still not clear, especially as it relates to how seriously the US would want to engage in real dialogue with Iran, or how much it will instead focus on just repeating its unacceptable demands? I will have to see who are the candidates to run, and the political environment surrounding Iran, before I decide who to support. But this article symbollically kicks off the western attention to Iran's upcoming presidential race and I post it for that purpose. http://www.boston.com/news/world/mi...8/12/22/iran_election_raises_hope_for_change/
LOOOL. I fully agree. Before hoping for a serious dialogue (I don't think that anybody in the West - not even Israel - has any interest to be Iran's 'enemy'), your government should finally start respecting human rights instead of arresting critics & intellectuals! And it should also stop threatening other countries... Btw: I don't see any unacceptable demands.
I think it would be fun to run for election in Iran. It would be a contest to see who could creatively invent the worst possible ways to obliterate Israel. Its kinda like the verbal warfare so common on school buses.
In politics, the business is never finished. Sometimes, however, the baton needs to be passed to someone else. I am not suggesting that Ahmadinejad's time is over; indeed, as reflected in the analysis of Iran's electorate below, I think that he is pretty much assured of winning reelection. But, in the very unlikely event that we begin hearing an entirely different tune from the United States, then maybe Ahmadinejad would not be the best choice to join in that tune. Not because of anything he has done, but because of all that was invested in damaging his reputation in the west. *** There are roughly 45 million eligible voters in Iran. These can be divided into the following groups: Group 1: The Ideological Army that is ever present (10 million voting)The most committed voters in Iran, this group comprising roughly 10 million voters in Iran vote for those favored by the leadership of the Basij forces. These people voted for Nategh Nouri in 1997; against the reformers and for so-called “hardliners” in 2000 parliamentary elections; came around to strongly support Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential elections; and voted for Ahmadinejad’s list in the last parliamentary elections. They will vote for Ahmadinejad again. Group 2: Out of Sight, Out of Mind (8-9 million, never vote) 20% of Iran’s voting age population, which would translate to roughly 8-9 million people, pretty much never vote in IRI elections. They did not even vote in the 2000 parliamentary elections. These people include those who are entirely apathetic and apolitical, and those sympathize with or support the most radical opponents of IRI, whether among ethnic minorities or remnants of the disgraced opposition groups and others. Group 3: Simple Folks (8-10 million and vote) This group numbers roughly 8-10 million overall. They are mainly (not exclusively) from small towns and rural areas of Iran, still loyal to their revolution, but resentful of corrupt politicians. They get their news and views from their local mullah or other "respectable" sources, peppered with small talk from their friends and neighbors. These folks voted for Khatami and the reformers during the heyday of the reform movement, mostly because he was seen as an “honest mullah”; eventually became disillusioned as the reformers came to speak to the concerns and attitudes of mainly the middle and upper middle classes in Tehran; began viewing many reformers as corrupt; voted in 2004 parliamentary elections which were boycotted by most reformist factions; supported Karrubi in large numbers in the 1st round of the 2005 elections; and supported Ahmadinejad in the run-off against Rafsanjani. After his election, Ahmadinejad has paid special attention to this group, and this group is firmly in Ahmadinejad’s corner right now. Group 4: The Organized and Disaffected Left (12 million divided on whether to vote?) Today, those who vote among them number no more than 3-4 million. At their height, they could claim around 12 million voters on their side. Attached or sympathetic to what can be regarded as the “left” in Iran’s politics, with those they follow connected to various student, labor, professional and trade organizations in Iran, or gathering their views from sources associated with them, the group that best represents them is the Islamic Iran Participation Front. This group made up the bulk of Khatami’s elite support; they were the most enthusiastic participants in the 2000 parliamentary elections, claiming the results all for themselves. Eventually disillusioned by the lack of “progress” on the issues they cared about, they splintered into different factions. Some 8 million of them eventually quit voting for the most part. The rest who did vote mostly supported Moin in the 1st round of the 2005 elections; split between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad in the run-off; those among them who still vote, vote for reformists in the elections that take place in IRI. This group will largely vote against Ahmadinejad. Group 5: Traditional Conservatives (4 million who mostly vote) This group, with its base of power in the bazaar and among Iran’s traditional clergy, has lost much of its political clout. They used to have a significant influence on Group 3 (“Simple Folks”), but lost that influence almost completely. Today, their base of support is mainly within IRI’s elite; among government bureaucrats and in some of the key institutions in and around the system. The only ones who really supported Rafsanjani in the last presidential election, with the rest of his votes from other groups, unless they can bring some other groups on their side, all alone they aren’t able to really claim more than a few million voters anymore. Something like 4 million voters is what they can count on if left to their own. For what was once IRI most powerful group, this is a significant drop in numbers, reflecting larger changes in Iran’s society. Ahmadinejad's Prospects? If the voter participation rate in the elections is under 60%, Ahmadinejad will win easily. He can count on Group 1 and Group 3 to give him roughly 18-20 million votes. That would be enough for even a landslide. The only scenario that would show Ahmadinejad losing is if: (a) voter participation lifts to around 80% again (very unlikely), and (b) his opponent can pull away some of his votes from Group 3, while getting the votes from Groups 4 and 5. The only candidate who IMO has that potential is Khatami, and even then, it would be a long shot. A longer shot still, but not entirely without hope, would be Tehran's mayor Ghalibaff.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
A comeback of Khatami would be a good choice not only for Iran (he's respected in the whole Western World - in contrast to the "loudmouth" Ahmadinechad), since he's a personality who's able to reduce the current tensions between Iran & the West and lead his country out of isolation. I heard that Ghalibaff is pretty moderate in comparison to Ahmadinechad, so he's surely an interesting politcian. Unfortunately, it's a shame how Mrs. Ebadi gets treated by the current government (the Iranian people should be proud of such an intelligent person) ... but well, there's still hope that things will improve in the country. It's a shame to see a historically proud nation with great potential drifting into isolation due to the silly politics under the Conservatives, who decided for confrontation instead of cooperation. During the WC 2006, I've talked to many Iranian soccer fans (living in Germany and all over Europe) who are proud of their country but not of their current government. I think that Iran needs more persons like this one... ... instead of die-heards like Mr. Ahmadinechad.
Same investment can be made against the next one too, just as Mr. Khatami was marginalized, by the same powers that demonized Ahmadinejad, when he was extending an olive branch. All must orbit around the center of light.
Even though I don't share your views on many things relating to Iran, or our region more generally, I have to admit that my favorite Iranian politician is former president Khatami. I also have to admit that I don't mind Qalibaff either, even though I think that Qalibaff's best chance was in 2005 (when he failed to make the run-off) and not in 2009. All of which is not to say that I agree with the sentiments you harbor regarding Ahmadinejad. He has his faults and warts, but his strengths (including his courage and self-confidence) is rather extraordinary. He will be remembered well in Iranian history, regardless of how is treated right now.
of course it also depends on who will be allowed to run for office. the puppet masters will determine who will win.
OMG, can any of the mods delete my multiple-posting, please? Thanx in advance. It seems that the board wasn't working that night ... and I've hit the "send message" buttom too often. Well, everybody has his own opinion...
Iranian AIDS doctors sentenced to prison TEHRAN, Iran – Two renowned Iranian AIDS physicians were convicted for allegedly taking part in a U.S.-backed plot to topple Iran's Islamic system, mystifying human rights activists who said the two were apolitical and doing innovative work on stemming the spread of the HIV virus. more: CLICK