In which we yet again post yet another ten thousand plus interesting or amusing -or neither- tweets

Yeah…… this is the kind of criticism that someone who hasn’t finished their BS in math might say, or someone who really hasn’t done a deep dive into stats, nor applied them rigorously.

There is a lot to question about data collection for polls and criticize assumptions made in weighting error or certain effects, but violation of CLT is not a serious argument. And certainly, polls aren’t meant to follow a normal distribution. CLT works for truly random events repeated many, many times.

This is a shit argument that doesn’t apply.

 

Crap i have this backward. Trump’s plan is to lose the blue wall, win the rest, and then try to flip the blue dot after the election.

 

Some day I’ll get tired of making fun of this.

Today is not that day.

In a second Trump administration, we’ll know immediately who Deep Throat is. https://t.co/N3o8vjnXvV

— Rob GobbleGobblin' (@RobGeorge) November 2, 2024

 

Keep in mind that Trump won Iowa by 8! in 2020. Even if he’s up 3 instead of down 3 it’s a terrible poll for him.

If Selzer had found Trump leading by 5 here, it’d have been considered a favorable result to Harris. https://t.co/3T9mmieWPZ

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 3, 2024

 

It’s worth noting that all of the Selzer poll was done post MSG freak show.

— Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) November 3, 2024

 

Just close your eyes and try to imagine how Trump and his team would have handled this news (just breaking tonight) if it was about any leading Democratic candidate pic.twitter.com/6Uyx7bt8EU

— Sam Stein (@samstein) November 3, 2024

 

“He would make outrageous claims like he invented the question mark….”

Trump: I consider myself to be the father of fertilization pic.twitter.com/M6Ux55gC9y

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 3, 2024

 

Republicans, what you forgot about Faustian bargains with Mephistopheles is that not only he takes your soul, he doesn’t deliver.

Donald Trump won one race with 46.1% and you folded on every value you claimed to believe.

You deserve this. https://t.co/L55Oa5vFTu

— Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) November 2, 2024

 

I kinda can’t wait to see what else they propose over the next couple of days...

“Fuck gravity!” https://t.co/811U76xUOI

— Sam Youngman (@samyoungman) November 2, 2024

 

🚨 CNN: “@VotersTomorrow is projecting record youth voting totals. … That’s extraordinary.” pic.twitter.com/MqXKcEQhT6

— Jack Lobel (@jackplobel) November 2, 2024

 

Trump keeps mentioning his white skin. That's not an accident. https://t.co/rkHlvB9WZS

— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) November 2, 2024

 

Democrats tonight: pic.twitter.com/PvcvRRQzzX

— Peter Schorsch (@PeterSchorschFL) November 3, 2024

 

From The Des Moines Register:

3% for RFK Jr
3% Don't Want to Say
2% Not Sure

This is great news for Kamala, but I still think the 9% not in team (R) and (D) break heavily for Trump, unless those people really do cast their vote for RFK Jr. and not Trump.

How amazing would it be if Trump loses a state by the margin that voted for RFK Jr.?

 

I voted for Kamala Harris. pic.twitter.com/DUejn3lwmL

— Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸 (@AndrewYang) November 2, 2024

 

Harris campaign clearly views Madison Square Garden rally as a turning point among late-breaking undecided voters, in ways that's giving them confidence in the final days. “It really broke through," senior campaign official says. "It’s helped gel their feeling about this race.”

— Matt Viser (@mviser) November 1, 2024

 

Hop on the Yang Train!!!

 

One thing that I think is different about this year compare to any year I can remember is the Democratic unity. Before Biden dropped out it was the opposite, but the willingness of so many egomaniacs (let’s be honest, yall, you’ve got to have a pretty big ego to think you can be a governor) to sublimate their agendas to the larger project is a good sign for a successful presidency if she wins.

The Dem Govs all coordinating to dress up as Tim Walz for Halloween is the greatest thing ever. pic.twitter.com/YewjW7mYNj

— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) October 31, 2024

 

Iowans, you have a chance to do the funniest thing. https://t.co/oSCv21XFcC

— Noah Berlatsky (@nberlat) November 3, 2024

 

God, what i wouldn't give to see Trump melt like Beloch.

 

Not to be a total geek, but Belloq's head exploded - Toht's face melted.

 

They're single-issue voters alright. The issue is "not a Democrat."

 

I didn't know Roy Cohn was Greek.

 

This is why the Iowa poll has upended the narrative. Look at that map. If this happens in 2 days, or anything like it, well, it would be a metaphoric neutron bomb. The GOP as a building will survive, but the people are all going to have to be replaced.

“We have it in our power to begin the world over again.”
– Thomas Paine https://t.co/lYrj9cqvhY

— Peter Wolf (@peterawolf) November 2, 2024