In which we yet again post yet another ten thousand plus interesting or amusing -or neither- tweets

Yeah…… this is the kind of criticism that someone who hasn’t finished their BS in math might say, or someone who really hasn’t done a deep dive into stats, nor applied them rigorously.

There is a lot to question about data collection for polls and criticize assumptions made in weighting error or certain effects, but violation of CLT is not a serious argument. And certainly, polls aren’t meant to follow a normal distribution. CLT works for truly random events repeated many, many times.

This is a shit argument that doesn’t apply.

 

Crap i have this backward. Trump’s plan is to lose the blue wall, win the rest, and then try to flip the blue dot after the election.

 

Some day I’ll get tired of making fun of this.

Today is not that day.

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Keep in mind that Trump won Iowa by 8! in 2020. Even if he’s up 3 instead of down 3 it’s a terrible poll for him.

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“He would make outrageous claims like he invented the question mark….”

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From The Des Moines Register:

3% for RFK Jr
3% Don't Want to Say
2% Not Sure

This is great news for Kamala, but I still think the 9% not in team (R) and (D) break heavily for Trump, unless those people really do cast their vote for RFK Jr. and not Trump.

How amazing would it be if Trump loses a state by the margin that voted for RFK Jr.?

 

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Hop on the Yang Train!!!

 

One thing that I think is different about this year compare to any year I can remember is the Democratic unity. Before Biden dropped out it was the opposite, but the willingness of so many egomaniacs (let’s be honest, yall, you’ve got to have a pretty big ego to think you can be a governor) to sublimate their agendas to the larger project is a good sign for a successful presidency if she wins.

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God, what i wouldn't give to see Trump melt like Beloch.

 

Not to be a total geek, but Belloq's head exploded - Toht's face melted.

 

They're single-issue voters alright. The issue is "not a Democrat."

 

I didn't know Roy Cohn was Greek.

 

This is why the Iowa poll has upended the narrative. Look at that map. If this happens in 2 days, or anything like it, well, it would be a metaphoric neutron bomb. The GOP as a building will survive, but the people are all going to have to be replaced.

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