How many points do we need for a playoff spot ?

Discussion in 'Columbus Crew SC' started by TRUJDUB, Jul 22, 2019.

  1. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And it is not quite flawless, either. Though certainly a great thread.

    For instance, the 1996 Crew won 9 of their final 10 (7 or 8 in regulation) to make the POs. They would have been toasted. And it also shows what a coach/keeper upgrade (Fitz/Friedel) can do.
     
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  2. POdinCowtown

    POdinCowtown Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jan 15, 2002
    Columbus
    It's possible in Knave's methodology for a team to get hot and become untoasted. If that happens, it's called Lazarakia. But all have fallen short thus far.
     
  3. Ch(Elsey)

    Ch(Elsey) Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    May 2, 2003
    Green, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Talk to Jim Mora about playoffs.
     
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  4. POdinCowtown

    POdinCowtown Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jan 15, 2002
    Columbus
    Here's what Sports Club Stats shows. These are from before the Montreal game.

    If we win all remaining games, we make the playoffs but no chance at the shield. If we get to 45 points, we have a good chance at the playoffs.

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/Columbus.html
     
  5. hangthadj

    hangthadj Member+

    A.S. Roma
    Mar 27, 2001
    Beacon, NY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
  6. Ch(Elsey)

    Ch(Elsey) Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    May 2, 2003
    Green, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    3% is rather generous.
     
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  7. DrunkandDisorderly

    Mar 17, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    It looks like they have us at 4.3% chance of the playoffs if you take into account the MTL game. Also, we technically have a .00000159% chance of winning the Supporters Shield.
     
  8. DrunkandDisorderly

    Mar 17, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    It looks like we would need at least 7 wins from the remaining games to have a decent shot at squeaking in.
     
  9. redi44crew

    redi44crew Member+

    Mar 27, 2007
    Louisville, KY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I was about to say "Which Williams?", but realized the Josh is safe; two goals. Romario is safe; 1 goal per game. You must mean JJ, right?
     
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  10. DGA57v2

    DGA57v2 Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Apr 1, 2019
    8 wins takes us to 45 points which the model says gives us a 70% chance of making the playoffs.
     
  11. DrunkandDisorderly

    Mar 17, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    That isn't counting the Montreal game.
     
  12. CybrSlydr

    CybrSlydr Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Jun 30, 2013
    Beverly, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm going to say we'll need one more than we get.
     
  13. DGA57v2

    DGA57v2 Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Apr 1, 2019
    I'm counting 9 out of 12 and we already won 1; hence 8 to go. ;)
     
  14. YITBOS

    YITBOS Member

    Jul 2, 2001
    1.3 hours from CCS
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hey brother -- sorry if I came off a little too insensitive. Sunshine Brigade has both short term and long term optimism!
     
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  15. hangthadj

    hangthadj Member+

    A.S. Roma
    Mar 27, 2001
    Beacon, NY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    It's all good, brother. As the great guitar heroes Jackyl have often screamed...

    I see the sun shining
    Down on me
    I feel the heat of love's flame
    Down on me

    And well, I'll leave the chorus there because women and children read these boards.
     
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  16. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I do not think that is true. All have not fallen short. 1996 Crew was pre-Knave thread but would have been toasted. I think someone did do it recently. DC? RSL? I know I am right on 1996 Crew.
     
  17. KCbus

    KCbus Moderator
    Staff Member

    United States
    Nov 26, 2000
    Reynoldsburg, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There have been a couple resurrections, but they both wound up getting scraped out of the bottom of the toaster by the time the season ended.
     
  18. POdinCowtown

    POdinCowtown Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jan 15, 2002
    Columbus
    Yes, there have been teams which were declared toast and which then rose back into playoff position. That made them Lazarakia. But so far none of them has ended up making the playoffs.
     
  19. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You both continue to ignore 1996 Crew.
     
  20. DGA57v2

    DGA57v2 Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Apr 1, 2019
    Was DC pre-Rooney also considered toast last year? I know they made a big push after he joined mid-season.
     
  21. Draghignazzo

    Draghignazzo Member+

    Feb 24, 2007
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I have a simple request. As one that rarely looks outside Crew forum around here, when Knave posts this year's thread, someone please link here. Please, and thank you.
     
  22. Draghignazzo

    Draghignazzo Member+

    Feb 24, 2007
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I do love how when possession stats don't support your argument, they are pointless drivel full of sound and fury, but you then often reference them to lambast others' points. Masterful, my friend. Simply masterful.
     
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  23. LaMacchia

    LaMacchia Member+

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Seconded.
     
  24. hangthadj

    hangthadj Member+

    A.S. Roma
    Mar 27, 2001
    Beacon, NY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    It's not my argument, it's the argument of the coaches. Both Berhalter and Porter have preached high possession style games believing that is some rosetta's stone to winning. Then after a game with 54% possession and nary a real scoring opportunity they will point to how they controlled the game.

    If you are asking me if I would rather play Berhalter style possession game, a Porter style possesion game with 100 aimless crosses, or sit back absorb the attack and hit quick and direct on the counter I'll choose the later every time. Especially in MLS where the players lack the ability to play an disciplined and intelligent possession based game, but may have the athleticism to be quick, dynamic and direct.

    Possession for possession's sake is meaningless.

    Possession by Sarah McLachlan is bliss. It's sneaks up on you like a great counter attack. You absorb the wind blowing through the great divide. Absorb the voices yearning. The memories trapped in time. And the BOOM! KISSES SO HARD. THEY TAKE YOUR BREATH AWAY!!!

    It's a ********in golazo. It's a golazo bonanza. GLORY TO COLUMBUS!!!
     
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  25. Draghignazzo

    Draghignazzo Member+

    Feb 24, 2007
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    3G had a ton of possession for possession's sake though. At this moment in time, given what I've seen thus far, I'll take 3G back over Porter all day.
     
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