Quite important, I would argue. The logic is that they are a more experienced team who would give us more problems in the Hex than El Salvador or Panama would. Sounds right to me. Yanks-Abroad has recently featured an article on this. Donovan thinks so, too. However, this argument can be taken a step further. Yes, Jamaica can currently count on more seasoned players who have already experienced the atomosphere of the CONCACAF Hexagonal. But they will also be likely to be a better team, because there is almost certain to be a new wave of British-born players willing to jump on the bandwagon once they know that the team has been assured qualification to the next phase. It happened the last time around. And it happened for France 98. Anyone notice how Jason Euell waited until Jamaica got past Haiti to announce his dedication to the team? That wasn't a coincidence. And you can expect the same thing to happen if they make it to the Hex. Which would mean games against a Jamaica team strengthened by several more pros from English leagues. Something that wouldn't happen with Panama or El Salvador. And something we certainly don't need. So let's go for the kill.
I agree (we've never lost in Jamaica people), but on the other hand, I would rather host Panama than Jamaica (we ain't gonna beat Jamaica 6-0 tonight).
I agree it's better to get rid of a dangerous side now...panama/el salvador don't represent as severe a test.... still the hex is shaping up to be the weakest since 1990, when mexico wasn't in it due their use of overage player in a youth tourney..
I don't think it makes the slightest bit of difference. If Jamaica's a tougher team, we may have more problems, but so do the other teams. Jamaica may take points from others as well as us, where a patsy just narrows the field and makes the games against the contenders more important than before. You can always count on Mexico to roll up goal difference and points against minnows. Tossing another sacrificial lamb to them rather than a team that may actually give them a game or steal a couple points doesn't help us any. Only way it helps us is if we struggle disproportionally against Jamaica, which I can see a somewhat valid arguement for since we never seem to beat them on the road, but considering they never beat us no matter where we play, I think it may be stretching things a bit. Either way, we're gonna be heavy favorites to take one of the top three spots from the hex, and no matter who we're matched up against, we should be able to do the job.
Something to consider, a weaker side in the hex allows other teams to beat up on them too. You actually want as many ties as possible for the other teams in the hex, that way the points get divided up. With Panama and T&T in the hex, a team like Guatemala could pick up more wins than expected and be more of a threat than they should be. It is one possible philosophy, might be right, might be wrong.
No matter what happens tonight I'll be happy with who is going through to the Hex, Us. We have never lost to Jamaica and I think at full strength we won't in the near future. Would you rather have Mexico and Costa Rica play El Salvador or Panama twice or Jamaica. I think our advantage over Jamaica is greater than Mexico or Costa Rica's advantage over Jamaica. I think we will play hard and that's what is important to me. http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20041117/sports/sports1.html Damarcus is a one name star in Jamaica now.
with panama and t&t in the hex....usa is at worst in 4th...meaning a play-off with asia... and consider guatemala/honduras t o be in it with usa and mexico, i'd agree guat/hon could claim full points from t&t and panama... but I think usa can get more points out of mexico than either honduras and guatemala... and if, guatemala and honduras are the nations in your path to the finals, I don't see that as more overally difficult....
A lot of people on the BS boards have floated this argument, and while it is somewhat compelling to think a top-heavy hexagonal is not preferable, I still don't buy into it. Primarily because of T&T's win over Honduras the last time around. I know Honduras dominated the match and hit the post about 80 times, but the point is that even a team that has no chance to qualify is going to get a result or two that they have no business getting. And with the US being arguably the strongest team in the region now, odds are that freak result won't be against us. So an overall weaker hex, to me, would strongly favor teams like the US and Mexico qualifiying for Germany.
This is spot on and first rate analysis. Anything can happen is qualifiers and we can get beat. But, I would like to reduce some of the bigger threats whenever possible. Jamaica has a much better chance of beating us than Panama in the hex. It is true that Jamaica would also have better odds of beating our rivals but I confident that our team's consistency will be reduce the chance of us getting upset by a weaker team.
Going there is one thing (it's something I'd like to do as a tourist one of these days). But playing against them is another matter altogether. Of the teams still vying for hex spots, they'd have to be the most dangerous should they get into that last-six spot in this region. Plus, I'll echo what Scotty said at the top, and it's that they have a World Cup pedigree, and several players who still remember what it was like to play at France'98. Time to go for the jugular, folks.
I hadn't really considered that losing tonight would mean we'd have to play them again, I've just been focusing on who's getting called up and what the team will look like but this all brings up some pretty good stuff. The only good thing about losing I think is that the team would get to go to Jamaica again, and lets face it who doesn't wanna go to Jamaica even though for them I guess it's more like a business trip. Of course we all remember the last Jamaica game, if they're playing like they were then in the Hex against Jamaica they might not be lucky enough to get that goal in the last 2 minuts of the game and it's not the type of thing you'd want to count on at that stage in qualifying. I actually hadn't been worrying much about this game at all I kinda figured if we lose so what we're still through to the next round but it would be nice to just have to deal with Mexico instead of Mexico and Jamaica, they're two teams you can beat and handle and it's not like it's impossible to beat them or anything but I wouldn't mind watching them beat Panama again 6-0 in the Hex, I was laughing during most of the second half of that game.
I think it depends on what our goals are for the hex. Do we just want to qualify or do we want to take the next step and win the hex? If we just want to qualify, knocking out Jamaica would benefit us. But if we want to win the hex, I think we are better off with Jamaica in the hex because they have a better chance of taking points from the other contenders. Personally, I think setting a goal of qualifying is too low of a goal for us. We should set out to win the hex.
Winning the hex wins you nothing and it's a pointless goal. We want to qualify in as few games as necessary then work on player development for the World Cup.
Those of you who use the logic that we've never lost to Jamaica as the reason for not worrying are playing with fire, IMO. Everyone's streak comes to an end someday, just ask <insert recently beaten streak-holder here>! Not to mention that, when we played Jamaica, they have for years had very inferior players. Within the past decade, though, Jamaica has vastly improved and has produced some excellent talent. I just think it's quite brash to think that, just because we haven't lost to them before, we won't ever lose to them. And as for the argument that we're a much better team today than we were when we used to beat them (so there's no way we'd lose now), they are also a much better team today. All it takes is one goal...
Well the US hasn't lost a game in awhile and I think it'd be better to lose tonight with more of an experimental team than to lose in the Hex where the numbers will be more important. If we lose tonight I don't think that anyone will really be crushed or anything, better lose with an experimental kind of team than with the regulars who are the best players in the country. But you're right, they have to lose sometime, better to lose now than in the Hex, even if that means that we have to play Jamaica again in a few months.
Well yeah that'd be a good outcome too, but if they have to lose sometime wouldn't it be better to lose tonight than in the Hex? The only other time where losing wouldn't be that big of a deal would be if it was a friendly or something.
It's important to win. The fact that a win would eliminate Jamaica is a distant second in terms of importance. We have already presided over the elimination of 2 teams. Who they are is inconsequential. You shouldn't try to 'game' the system. Just win. No one in our group has beaten us and long as that remains true, there is no reason for any of the other teams in our group to expect to beat us in the hex. That analysis changes if we lose. If we lose, we allow a team who has beaten us at home 2 more chances to beat us and the knowledge that it's possible. Therefore it is important that we win tonight.
Of course a loss tonight wouldn't be as bad as a loss in the hex, but our streak against jamaica isn't some kind of voodoo that's going to wear off. Hell, it could go for another 100 games, I have no idea. But to even talk about it doesn't even make sense. No matter if we win or lose tonight, it won't affect how we play against Jamaica whenver we play them again.
I posted this in my blog this morning about the match and our motivation (for the full piece, go here): What we need to do tonight comes down to one key question: Will the US qualify for Germany NO MATTER WHO is in the Hex or not? If one says no, then by all means we need to pave the easiest road possible and should shell the Reggae Boyz. If yes, then the bigger question of "what is in the best long-term interests of the US National Team?" shoud be asked. For the momentum of the quarterfinal finish in Korea/Japan to be sustained, we need to keep our world ranking up. Playing Panama or El Salvador twice next year would not be helpful in that regard, especially if we drew a match with one of them. A road draw against Jamaica, however, wouldn't hurt as much. Given the gap in standing between Jamaica and the other two teams in our group, having Jamaica in the Hex would help us in the efforts to qualify for a seed in 2006 or 2010 (or help Mexico as well). Getting a seed almost ensures advancement to the knock-out stages, since one would avoid Brazil, Argentina, and a number of very good European sides. The points separating the teams between 6 and 10 are so few (22 points) that getting good results against slightly-better opposition might make a difference between a group of Argentina/Sweden/Portugal/USA and USA/Denmark/Ireland/Ecuador, and if it doesn't do so for 2006 it might for 2010 or 2014. In the grand scheme of things, the US is better-served by having Jamaica in the Hex because the higher the ranking of the team you beat, the more points you can secure, and in a game of inches, a couple extra points on a sheet of paper can go a long way. Prediction is a 1-1 draw that gets the Boyz through.
Jamaica tonight should be as motivated as they could possibly ever be. If we still win, they shouldn't be any more motivated next time. Their neck is on the line and we will see the most desparate Jamaican team possible.