There are two primary boosts to a young U.S. soccer player's career. 1) Be born early in the calendary year. Greatly increases the chance of making regional & national ODP teams. 2) Be selected to Bradenton. For which it helps to be born in even numbered years. Thus, in the best of all worlds, a young player would be born in the first half of even numbered years -- so as to have the best chance of making Bradenton. So, I asked myself, does this seem to play out on MLS rosters? Well, here are the results for all players who are listed on MLS rosters and were under the age of 21 as of January 1, 2003. (There are probably are some minor errors & omissions on this list. Please feel free to fix.) Yes or No indicates whether they were at Bradenton. First Half 1982 Beasley Yes David Stokes No? Akwari Yes Beckerman Yes Tremby Yes Donovan Yes Ricky Lewis No? Countess Yes Second Half 1982 Eskandrian Yes First Half 1983 Ricardo Clark No? Barclay No Convey Yes Second Half 1983 None First Half 1984 Eddie Johnson Yes Jordan Stone Yes Second Half 1984 Mapp Yes Quaranta Yes Magee Yes First Half 1985 Arturo Alvarez No Second Half 1985 Capano Yes First Half 1986 Guillermo Gonzales Yes Second Half 1986 Eddie Gaven Yes Age Effect Results - 15 kids born in the first half of the year 6 kids born in the second half of the year Of those 6 born in the second half of the year, three were born in July. Only 3 MLS players under the age of 21 were born in August, September, October, November, or December. (Mapp, Magee, Quaranta.) Bradenton Effect Results 16 kids born in even-numbered years 5 kids born in odd-numbered years These results are a bit skewed because the study starts in 1982, so there are more even-numbered years with older players ... still, the '84s outnumber the '83s by a 5 to 3 score, and the '86s match the '85s. Finally, I'll summarize this by organizing the guys into four groups: Early Date, Even Years (Best Situation) - 11 Late Date, Even Years (Middle Situation) - 4 Early Date, Odd Years (Middle Situation) - 3 Late Date, Odd Years (Worst Situation) - 2 I would guess that some of the players who were bypassed by MLS as under-21s will get their chance after college/Project 40. Nevertheless, this would appear to be an inefficient system, where (admittedly through a small sample) U.S. youth players who are born in the first half of even-numbered years would seem to have 5x as much chance of breaking into MLS at an early age than players who were born in the second half of odd-numbered years. My own son -- wouldn't you know it -- is from a late date, odd-numbered year. Better think college scholarship, boy!
Residency is a HUGE advantage for the youth nat players born in even years. There have been exceptions but most of the odd year players - U16 and U18 are not put into residency. This means that they are brought into the Nat camps a couple of times a year and then go back to their high school and club teams. Players in that situation are not going to develop as quickly as the players in Bradenton and so not too many of them will go into MLS at an early age.
Nail her next month. Your kid will be born in January '04. On the 2021 Bradenton squad. (Hmmm, will girls have Bradenton, too?) Actually, you might want to wait until May, just in case the kid comes early.
Nice post John, you should send it to the fed. Good thing Mathis' brother played pick-up soccer with him in the backyard, he's born in November.
Mathis Well, there are always exceptions. And the good news is, the very, very hottest prospects will be able to overcome their birthday. It's the next pool of players -- the very good but not great prospects who might be late bloomers (i.e., Roy Keane) -- those are the guys who are getting missed because of late birthdays.
Solution? We could keep some younger players in Bradenton. Also, we could have between Youth WC years tournaments. Odd numbered year CONCACAF championship. Take off on the Gold Cup calling them the Silver Cup and the Bronze Cup. Compete these teams in about four of the U.S.'s best Youth U17 U19 Tournaments (with the U15 Team and the U17 Team) like the Dallas Cup. And have a by invitation only U.S. Open Youth Championship for the odd numbered youth teams. Invite seven teams from outside CONCACAF.
Suggestions This would definitely be a good solution for the even- and odd-numbered years. Fixing the tendency to pick January - April kids over September - December kids for ODP is a bigger problem. Starts at the state level; not just at regional and national level. Need a change of consciousness on this topic by the coaches.
Suggestion for development-oriented teams: If you're really serious about a kid's future potential, you want to choose the best prospects regardless of what time of year they were born. So, in addition to capping a team's maximum age, also cap the average age. If the earliest birthdate for a development team is January 1st, require that the average birthdate has to be May 1st or later. (If a kid plays up a division, he would count as December 31st.) Obviously, a lot of coaches would look on this as a hassle, but let's face it, this is an important issue. As I've pointed out before, Greg Martin and Kellen Kalso made it into the 1999 residency team ahead of regional teamers Ricky Lewis and David Stokes. Almost certainly, this is because Martin and Kalso were born in early January. Corrective measures would have helped the USSF invest more wisely.
this will not be an issue when MLS has enough money to start reserve teams. Hopefully that will happen in 5 years? Then the main advantage won't be your bday but if you live in a market with an MLS team. I'm sure they will start the scouting with the club teams in their area. Once that starts Bradenton won't be needed either.
I dont think that Reserve teams will really help the age situation. The birthday situation isn't just a Bradenton thing, it also aids players on the state level. By having reserve teams, players will still most likely be picked from the early half of the year. In youth soccer a couple of months can be a huge advantage in a players development. Finding a solution for this is not easy though. I dont think it would be fair to do it affirmative action style and set quotas, like half the team must be from second half. I mean how can you tell a kid that was born in June that he was cut because a player born in August, who he was better than, was needed to fill the quota. But then again is it fair that a player born in December should be competing with players born in January. That January born player is almost a full year older than the December player. That can make a huge difference. Creating two teams for each age group, a first half of the year team and a second half of the year team might be a better option, but a more co$tly one. This would allow players to get exposed to players who are closer to their level of physical development. By placing players with players of similar physical development together it would then be easier to decide who currently has the best soccer skills. But by doing this, this could hurt our U17 team because they will not have played together as much and it could hurt the development of the truly elite like a Bobby Convey, who if forced to play with his age group might have slowed down his devleopment. This is a problem that is excluding and hindering the development of some of our players. But it is one that does not come with an easy answer, it is something the USSF is really going to have to look at closely.
I think this is really true---especially if you are refering to PHYSICAL developement. My son is a June birthday and is headed to ODP for the first time this June. Physically he is smaller than the January-March kids. However he does have one advantage. Because he is smaller (his birthday really sucks for league which cuts off July 31) he has had to work harder. He is on the ball a lot more than some of the other kids who get by on pure athleticism. He is actually better technically, but does give up quite a bit in strength and size.
Age Effect Yes, but let's not forget that age affects everything. My own son -- July birthday -- is real strong and real fast, so that's not a problem. Hell, he's as strong and fast as the typical player 3 years older than him, and he can match most of them -- although not the best -- in ball skills. But he sure doesn't think like them. Watch him against those guys and you'd think he's kinda slow witted. Not arguing with your specific case, but I wanted to point out that the age disadvantage is more than just size & speed. It also affects the perception of how skilled or smart a player is, because those attributes are age-related, too.