My annual hot-seat prediction post. Thank you @ThePonchat I'll let you all decide/discuss what success is. Currently batting just under 33% 2023 Predictions 3 out of 8 schools Correct (UAB, NC State, Marquette) 2022 Predictions 2 out 11 schools Correct (Columbia & Georgia Southern) Did have UAB & NC State on this list too. 2021 Predictions 3 out of 6 Schools Correct (Brown, George Mason, UConn) Anyway lets get to 2024 Predictions! Only 6 schools this time. Boston College Virginia Tech Michigan (Had them on this list the past two years as well. Maybe I'm just stubborn but I'd expect more from them). Radford College of Charleston Coastal Carolina (Docking is getting to the point of where Ray Reid was a few years ago when UConn "let him retire") Please rip in to it or add your own thoughts!
Jared Embick of Akron needs to be at the top of the list. Losing to Xavier last year. Getting mauled last night by Ohio State Has not won a tournament game in the last 5 years. Akron soccer has become irrelevant and very hard to watch.
I had an interesting conversation with a Coastal Carolina fan recently. Coach Docking has 12 regular season and 12 conference titles with 15 NCAA appearances in 25 seasons at CCU (although all of those trophies and NCAA's came before the great SBC membership shakeup of 2021), and he has been part of the US Soccer Olympic development program. CCU used to be one of the more desirable landing spots in the old Sun Belt, with a relatively easy path to the NCAA's where they could earn an occasional victory like their 2017 win over #8 Clemson. However, they've seen Coastal get jumped in the SBC's pecking order of life by four P4 programs (Kentucky, South Carolina, UCF), two of the top funded G5 programs (JMU, ODU), and a recent national champion that's basically gone all-in on funding soccer (Marshall). Denning's not being out-coached, and he's still recruiting some high-quality players to campus. As an example, he had brought in a future all-American in Alvaro Garcia-Pascual, but he ended up transferring to Marshall after 2 cycles through the league. (Georgia Southern saw a similiar situation where they brought in an All-SBC First Teamer who jumped to WVU this year). Denning and Coastal are simply out-resourced in their reformed league. Coastal did open up a new "stadium" this week, but the new stadium was primarily built so that the old soccer field location could be turned into more parking for their football stadium, so it wasn't a major investment. While a nicer field that what they had before, their soccer facility (along with Georgia Southern) are still the most basic soccer facilities in the SBC. Until or unless Coastal decides to significantly increase soccer funding, they can't expect to get much better results than what they are seeing right now. The CCU fan said that even despite their successes in the late 2010's, Coastal never really drew large crowds for soccer (and nowhere near what they draw for baseball, which is where most of their Olympic sports funding goes), so that's part of the reason Coastal didn't go big with their new stadium. The thinking appears to be that Docking is under no pressure and won't be pushed out, he'll get to go out on his own terms. Docking is still in his early 50's, so he's probably not in a rush to retire from the game.
You are right Maclid. In the old Sun Belt Coastal Carolina and Georgia State run things. They basically had their way. Docking teams since he become the HC at CC has made it past the first round 11 times making it to the 3rd round 3 times. The preseason's coaches poll had Georgia State at 7 and Coastal Carolina at 9 out of ten teams. Coastal had a chance to put a good facility together when the old soccer site got caught up in being in the wrong location but they just put down the bare bones minimum, I wonder where their locker rooms will be now. Coastal, GA State and GA Southern have the bare minimum to pass for a soccer stadium. The thing is I think the people in charge of those programs understand they have now been lapped by South Carolina, WVU, Kentucky, UCF, JMU and Marshall of the rebuilt Sun Belt in terms of facilities and funding. I can't see either firing Docking (Coastal Carolina) or Surrency (GA State) in the next few years. And GA Southern just hired Squires before last season. Embick's Akron teams have been in a downward spiral since they lost the college cup to Maryland in 2018. They were 9-1-7 going into their last three games last year and only needing to win all 3 to lesser programs to make the NCAAs they promptly lost to Creighton (4-7-6) 3-2, tied Marquette (7-6-3) 1-1 and tied Butler (2-7-6) 0-0. And then lost to Xavier 1-0 in the Big East first round.
The change in the conference has not helped them. No more cruising through the MAC and then gearing up for midweek games vs. Big Ten teams. Now the grind of the Big East is every game!
On the surface, your point has merit ;it is a tempting narrative. But in Reality, Akron was not cruising through the MAC, not in the last 5 years. More like holding on for dear life. Akron’s current struggles cannot be attributed to switching to a higher profile conference. Zips are just not playing good Soccer, and have not for several seasons.
Has nothing to do with the conference they are in. They haven't cruised through the MAC in 7-8 years and haven't went undefeated in the MAC since 2012 under Caleb Porter. Even in their run to the college cup in 2018 they struggled mighty then. If they don't win the MAC they don't get in the NCAAa. Going into the MAC Tournament Akron was 5-4-3. Something has been wrong in Cub Cadet Field field now 6+ years. Embick might be a good coach but something is rotten up at Akron and it should start at the head coach.
I've been following the team for a number of years. Some years I follow the team more closely than others but I am always able to see at least a few games. While some may not care for it, I always have liked watching tiki-taka soccer. It's my favorite style to watch. Akron once was the best example of that style in the NCAA. Additionally when the Zips lost possession, 100+% effort went in to winning back possession. It was the singular focus. Over the last few years the team plays a much more direct style and seems a lot more complacent while defending. There is not the urgency to win possession back. They seem to lack a "killer instinct." All of that said, I believe that it is better to play a style of soccer that is best suited to the strengths of the roster and not to try and force a round peg into a square hole but regardless of what style is played, defense should always be played as stoutly as possible and every single player on the field needs to defend and be held accountable to defend. I'm just not seeing that. If the ship isn't righted soon it is going to be too late once again.
It's hard to believe I'm writing this, but George Gelnovatch may be feeling a little uneasy about job security down in C-ville. They've yet to win an ACC game, their RPI number is in triple digits and they're 2 games under .500. If they don't turn things around, this will be the third time in 5 seasons they have had a losing record and missed the NCAA Tournament. UVA, with its seven national titles and 39-straight NCAA Tournament appearances record, is one of the standard bearers for modern college soccer along with Indiana, UCLA and Maryland. For the Cavaliers to spend most of this decade as an also-ran is unacceptable as the University has given the program everything that's needed to be successful. George has a great resume. He's one of the best coaches in D-I men's soccer history and he's a UVA alum who has given his life to the program. They won't fire him or coax him into retirement without some deep soul-searching. And his resume and legacy at the school has earned him some equity that he's yet to burn through. But nothing is forever accept the inevitability of change. Gelnovatch likely will be back next season. But if things aren't markedly better in 2025, odds are that's his last season.
As we march into October, who's officially added onto the hot seat list, out of all the winless teams?
Not sure who should be added but probably safe to say Virginia Tech, Michigan, and COllege of Charleston should be removed from the list.
So since this dumbass post, Virginia has won back-to-back games over Top 10 Virginia Tech and previously unbeaten James Madison, pulling it back to .500 and rising its RPI over 60 points. Not out of the woods yet, but the Cavs' odds for getting an at-large bid are certainly looking much better than when the above words were written by some goober.
Really surprised no one talks about Gonzaga. Have an unbelievable set up and have been very poor for a while now.
Michigan State maybe? 18-24-9 in the Big 10 since the 2018 College Cup appearance. Currently 4-3 in conference after losing to Indiana last night. Boston College??? Steady decline since their last tournament appearance in 2019. UConn- not advocating for Gbandi to be in the hot seat as he still needs time, but if you're in that athletic department surely you would be ashamed with the scheduling from them. You're Uconn for godsake and you've played six games (5 Non-Conference) against teams higher than 150 in the RPI. In fairness to MIchigan State above they've only played two of those. Again I don't think they should be in the hotseat, but that's an even easier non-conference schedule than a lot of the ACC teams play. Not going to bring up schools with lesser resources from poor conferences. As always please rip into it and cut it apart.
since invited to "rip into it", my only question is "higher than 150", does that mean ordinally higher like 199 or should it be lower in the RPI - meaning worse. I'm not sure, but this confounded me.
I still don’t know what’s correct to be honest! 151 is a higher number than 150 so I used it that way. NCAA gives out seeds for the tournament 1-16. 1 is a higher seed but a lower number in our world I guess? Let’s just say that in my post above, whichever is “worse” in your eyes is the higher/lower term to use.