2022 WC qualification--tracking the rankings (R)

Discussion in 'CONCACAF' started by Robert Borden, Nov 1, 2018.

  1. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Correct. However, there's been talk of changing the format/eliminating that semifinal round and going to 2 groups - in which case it could matter.

    And this could exactly be the reason they get rid of the Semifinal group stage. You eliminate 6 games just like that.
     
  2. JYDA

    JYDA Member

    Sep 10, 2003
    UEFA is indicating they will give two places in the qualifying playoffs to teams from the UEFA Nations League. This clearly circumvents the "rule" of FIFA rankings seeding all qualifying.

    https://www.apnews.com/d30c09518ce940ac8e86a8f04c34dee3

    It feels like things that used to be a rule under Blatter are now suddenly flexible under Infantino. If UEFA is doing something like this then I won't be surprised when CONCACAF blends Nations League results into the process with no regard for FIFA rankings. Montagliani is on the record saying Nations League will be used to seed WCQ. I don't see it as something Infantino is going to step in and meddle with. The fact FIFA have delegated the qualifying draw to each confederation indicates to me they're taking a hands off approach.
     
  3. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yup...although as @EvanJ helpfully pointed out here, the "rule" itself hasn't even been around for that long.

    As for Concacaf: putting WCQ top seeds on the line is definitely a way to get the best teams to buy in (e.g. win your League A group, or get stuck having to play the 1st round with Dominica and Barbados).
     
  4. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We'll see when Concacaf announces the WCQ format compared to when the Nations League is played.
     
  5. JYDA

    JYDA Member

    Sep 10, 2003
    edcalvi and Paul Calixte repped this.
  6. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good catch! In that case...

    Given the time constraints, I don't see there being much of an alternative to going with this format.
     
  7. JYDA

    JYDA Member

    Sep 10, 2003
    I agree.

    The only tweak I wish they would make is to carry forward results between advancing teams in the semi-final round to the hex. This has two enormous benefits.

    1) Saves 2 matchdays. The US faced Trinidad 4 times in 2018 WCQ which is a bit silly.
    2) Greatly improves the sporting integrity of the semi-final round because teams that have reached the hex with a game or two to spare will not take their foot off the gas. Their have been numerous incidents in previous cycles where teams already through to the hex have put out a B/C team on the final matchday and impacted other teams.

    Most recent example: Juan Carlos Osorio fielded a team of kids against Honduras at the Azteca on the last semi-final matchday allowing Honduras to get a draw and advance over Canada. If that result could potentially count towards to hex table then Osorio would've put out the A squad and won by 3 or 4
     
  8. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #33 EvanJ, Jul 8, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2019
    That's true, but carrying results forward from a previous round is not something I have ever seen in soccer. In qualifying for the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup, Europe had a round with 8 groups of 4. The top 3 in each group advanced to a round with 4 groups of 6, and the top 3 in each group qualified. The 3 teams that advanced from the same group were in the same group again, and all 6 results carried forward including 2 games against teams that did not advance to that round. The standings ended with 6 teams having 12 games.

    If results were carried through in WCQs for 2006, Trinidad and Tobago wouldn't have qualified. In the Semifinals, they lost both games to Mexico. In the Hexagonal, the home team won both games, so replacing them with the Semifinal games would have decreased them from 13 to 10 points. Guatemala finished fifth with 11 points. When they played Costa Rica, the home team won both games in the Semifinals and the Hexagonal, so carrying the Semifinal results forward wouldn't have changed their Hexagonal points. In WCQs for 2010, carrying the Semifinal results forward would have qualified Costa Rica, and Honduras would have gone to the playoff against Uruguay that Costa Rica lost.
     
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  9. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wasn't able to watch Jorge Ramos y su Banda today (busy at work)...but from the noise on Twitter, it looks like they have a WCQ format rumor that would be a complete departure from the norm:

    • Concacaf conducting its draw based on the June 2020 rankings
    • The Top 6 play in a Hexagonal group by themselves
    • The remaining 29 get drawn into 8 groups, with the group winners moving on to a knockout round
    • The Top 3 in the Hex would qualify for the World Cup, while the 4th-place team would face the "best of the rest" winner for the playoff berth
    If this is seriously being considered in Miami, then I would hope that the federations would be in an upheaval and threaten Montagliani's presidency :mad:

    This format straight-up shuts the door to direct WC berths to 29 members, denies them the chance to play host to the best sides in the region, and screws over the 5th and 6th place sides in the Hex (who would have an argument about a team ranked lower than them getting into a 4th-place playoff).
     
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  10. jagum

    jagum Member

    CF Montreal
    Venezuela
    Jun 20, 2007
    Panama City, Panama
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Venezuela
    Totally discriminatory with the Caribbean islands, and countries that do not have economic resources to play more friendlies and raise their ranking. I think they're scared of Curacao, Haiti, Bermuda or Jamaica and they want to get them off the hook.
    They practically gave direct ticket to Mexico, Usa and Costa Rica to the Hex without putting them to play before. Montagliani has disappointed me.
    https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/universal-deportes/futbol/cambia-la-eliminatoria-al-mundial
     
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  11. JYDA

    JYDA Member

    Sep 10, 2003
    Your first point is valid but your second point is not. The teams finishing 5th and 6th get their chance against the 4th place team in the Hex itself.
     
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  12. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada


    The first part of the Concacaf qualifiers, which will be played in a Hexagonal format, will be contested between the top six ranked Concacaf Member Associations based on the FIFA Ranking published after the FIFA window of June 2020. After home-and-away round robin play during the FIFA Match windows of September, October and November of 2020 and March and September of 2021, the top three teams will qualify directly to the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™.

    The second part of the qualifiers, played across a Group Stage and knockout phase, will involve the Concacaf Member Associations ranked 7-35 according to the FIFA Ranking published after the FIFA window of June 2020. For the group stage, these 29 participating Concacaf Member Associations will be divided into eight groups (five groups of four teams and three groups of three teams). After home-and-away round robin play during the FIFA Match windows of September, October and November of 2020, the first-place finishers in each of the eight group will qualify for the knock out stage.

    The quarter finals, semifinals and final matches of the knock out phase will all be played in a home-and-away direct elimination format, during the FIFA Match windows of March, June and September 2021.

    The winner of the knockout phase will face the fourth-place finisher of the Hexagonal group to determine the Concacaf representative in the FIFA intercontinental playoff. The home-and-away playoff matches between the two Concacaf representatives will take place during the FIFA Match Window of October 2021.
     
  13. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    The current (June) FIFA rankings for CONCACAF. Obviously this will change by next June. The just finished Gold Cup and the CNL is going to have a big impact on the rankings.

    1. Mexico
    2. USA
    3. Costa Rica
    4. Jamaica
    5. Honduras
    6. El Salvador
    =============
    7. Panama
    8. Canada
    9. Curacao
    10. Trinidad & Tobago
    11. Haiti
    12. Antigua and Barbuda
    13. Nicaragua
    14. St. Kitts and Nevis
    ------------------------------
    15. Guatemala
    16. Suriname
    17. Dominican Republic
    18. Barbados
    19. Belize
    20. St. Lucia
    21. Grenada
    22. Bermuda
    ------------------------------
    23. Cuba
    24. Dominica
    25. Guyana
    26. St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    27. Puerto Rico
    28. Aruba
    29. Montserrat
    30. US Virgin Islands
    ------------------------------
    31. Cayman Islands
    32. Br. Virgin Islands
    33. Turks and Caicos Islands
    34. Anguilla
    35. Bahamas
     
  14. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    utter trash (the new format)
     
  15. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  16. slaminsams

    slaminsams Member+

    Mar 22, 2010
    Where is the upside or logic in the new format?

    Everyone 7th down has basically been eliminated from the World Cup already
     
  17. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The upside is that every team gets to play in a group stage, but that doesn't justify the format. I wonder if any confederation has ever had multi-tiered qualifying. Concacaf used to do that before the Semifinals, but all teams who qualified played in the Semifinals and Hexagonal. UEFA used to have multiple tiers of Women's World Cup qualifying where only the top tier got to attempt to qualify, and the other teams needed to be promoted up a tier (or more than one tier) to be able to attempt to qualify next time. Now UEFA lets every team attempt Women's World Cup Qualifying.
     
  18. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just made up a small change to help the bottom 29. I would make fourth in the Hexagonal play the worse of the final 2 of the 8 group winners as determined by FIFA Rankings or results in previous rounds, and the winner of that would play the better of the final of the 8 group winners. That would let the better of the final of the 8 group winners qualify with one fewer playoff, and the difference between third and fourth would be bigger because fourth would have to win 3 playoffs, with 2 in Concacaf and 1 interconfederational.

    Even if this format is unfair, Concacaf will have more spots in World Cup 2026, so it's a one-time thing.
     
  19. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Completely ridiculous. There's not that large a gap between 4th and 9th (or even 11th) right now. The point in time the top 6 are picked is critical, and you can make an argument CONCACAF could be screwing themselves/not getting represented by the best teams. What if teams ranked 7th and 8th at the seeding point are on the upswing (new talent coming in), and 4,5,6 are on the downswing (retirements, injuries). You could be excluding 2 of the best teams!!

    Not to mention, why will a dual-eligible player ever commit to some of the Caribbean nations now if they are ranked below 6? I think you just indirectly compressed their available talent pool.

    This could really hurt Canada or Haiti - who were on the upswing. Will Canada have to beat the USA at least 1 time in CNL to be in top 6? Will that be enough?

    Are Jamaica and El Salvador better off being in group B for CNL and romping through it? Is Honduras hurt or helped by having non-FIFA recognized Martinique in their group?

    Could one team do another a "favor" via a draw, or playing a B team and losing, securing a needed win for another team (What if Mexico has clinched top spot with a remaining game against Panama - & Panama's ranking is borderline 6/7?)

    So unfair, and even if everyone is honest, so much space for graft/shady actions (which is probably why CONCACAF chose this).
     
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  20. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Not sure that helps the other 29 that much. And even if it's a 1 time thing, this is a horrible travesty.

    Here's something that cuts down on # of games for top teams vs past, but gives smaller nations some more games.
    Round 1: Top 12 ranked get a bye. Other 23 put in 6 groups (5x4, 1x3). 6 group winners advance
    Round 2: 18 teams (12 bye from round 1, and 6 winners). 6 groups of 3. 6 Winners go to hex.

    A top 12 team has 14 qualifiers (less than the 16-18 of previous formats or 18 of CONMEBOL)
    Ranked 13-35: could have 20 (unlikely, but they have a chance).
     
  21. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm okay with that format, but there aren't enough matchdays for that because of the Nations League.

    Here is how many qualifiers Concacaf had for each World Cup starting with 1998, which was the first time the World Cup had 32 teams. In all cases before 2022, the first number is for all rounds before the Semifinals.

    1998: 32 + 36 + 30 = 98
    2002: 58 + 36 + 30 = 124
    2006: 44 + 36 + 30 = 110
    2010: 43 + 36 + 30 = 109 (an odd number of games because three matchups in Round 1 had one game instead of two legs)
    2014: 76 + 36 + 30 = 142
    2018: 46 + 36 + 30 = 112
    2022: 30 Hexagonal + 60 from groups of 4 + 18 from groups of 3 + 14 from playoffs between group winners + 2 from playoff between group winner and Hexagonal four = 124

    That excludes interconfederational playoffs.
     
  22. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Not sure i'm following - exactly how many open match dates are there? CONMEBOL is still requiring 18 games in their format (before intercontinental playoff). Are you saying that is the limit - 18 games? And my potential 20 for the 'minnows' puts my proposed format over?

    Anyway - back to how terrible the new format is, any chance at all that this could be reconsidered/there's any pushback from member nations? I don't understand why Canada, Panama, El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, Haiti, T&T, and even Costa Rica would agree to this format. What if anything could they do in protest? I'd love to know more about how this format came about, and who supported and who did not.
     
  23. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's the odd thing - it's been over 24h now, and AFAIK not a single federation has raised its voice in protest.

    [​IMG]

    (Felipe Baloy complaining that no one in Panama's federation warned of the new changes)

    ...so it seems like the Feds are on board (the "why" here is crucial).
     
  24. jagum

    jagum Member

    CF Montreal
    Venezuela
    Jun 20, 2007
    Panama City, Panama
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Venezuela
  25. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    All well and good, but: why are none of them complaining about it now? It's not as if they are powerless - their votes determine who gets those cushy seats in the Concacaf presidency and the FIFA Council.
     

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