Hermann Watch List

Discussion in 'Statistics and Analysis' started by ChrisE, Oct 21, 2004.

  1. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    I don't know in how much esteem this list is generally held. But, with Buzz of 3rdddegree.net putting out a preliminary draft list, and using the watch list as a basis for it, I thought I'd take a look at past lists.

    In 2002, getting on the watch list pretty much guaranteed that a player was going to be drafted. Here's the 16-player list:

    Code:
    Kevin Ara  	Sr.  	Harvard
    Ryan Cochrane 	Jr. 	Santa Clara
    Cesar Cuellar 	Sr. 	Connecticut
    Clint Dempsey 	Jr. 	Furman
    Ned Grabavoy 	Jr. 	Indiana
    Adolpho Gregorio 	Sr. 	UCLA
    Matt Haefner 	Sr. 	Pennsylvania
    William Hesmer 	Sr. 	Pennsylvania
    Sumed Ibrahim 	Sr. 	Maryland
    Antou Jallow 	Jr. 	Wisconsin-Milwaukee
    Guy Melamed 	Jr. 	Boston College
    Joseph Ngwenva 	Sr. 	Costal Carolina
    Abe Thompson 	Jr. 	Maryland
    David Wagenfuhr 	Sr. 	Creighton
    Jeremiah White 	Sr. 	Wake Forest
    Chris Wingert 	Sr. 	St. John's
    
    The only senior on the list that didn't get drafted was the mercurial Cesar Cuellar, that is, 9/10 of the seniors did get drafted, and generally very high. There were 50 seniors drafted in 2003, with an average position of 34.5; the 9 watch-list seniors averaged 21.9, and 7/9 were in the first half (Wagenfuhr, 32; Haefner, 52).

    Of the 6 underclassmen, three joined MLS this year, getting drafted at 6, 9, and 15. The other 3 look sure to get drafted come January.

    Unfortunately, I couldn't find any watch lists before 2003, so this is as post is as much a request for help as it is an attempt to inform. So, if anybody can find them, I'd appreciate it.
     
  2. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    If we can get enough data, it'd also be interesting to see how often Hermann finalists live up to their high picks.

    Here's the 1998 list: (if you look for "finalists," I suspect they'll be easier to locate.)
    Lazo Alavanja (Indiana), Keith Beach (Maryland), Adin Brown (William & Mary), Matt Chulis (Virginia), Nick Garcia (Indiana), Jay Heaps (Duke), Dema Kovalenko (Indiana), Wojtek Krakowiak (Clemson), Jason Moore (Virginia), Richard Mulrooney (Creighton), Antonio Otero (American), Maurizio Rocha (Connecticut), Steve Shak (UCLA), Sasha Victorine (UCLA), Evan Whitfield (Duke).

    Drafted in 1999
    1. Jas. Moore
    2. Heaps
    3. Mulrooney
    4. Alavanja
    9. Chulis
    11. Whitfield
    15. Krakowiak
    17. Beach

    Drafted in 2000
    1. Shak
    2. N. Garcia
    3. A. Brown
    11. Victorine

    Otero, Kovalenko, and Rocha were all 1999 P-40's and were assigned to teams, not drafted.

    Suffice it to say, this crop was drafted much higher than last year's.
     
  3. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    1999
    Maryland's Taylor Twellman and Nick Downing, Indiana's Nick Garcia and Aleksey Korol; Carlos Bocanegra and Sasha Victorine (UCLA); Chris Gbandi and Brent Rahim (Connecticut); Shaker Asad (N.C. State); Adin Brown (William & Mary); Ali Curtis (Duke); Wes Hart (Washington); Lee Morrison (Stanford); Peter Scavo (Seton Hall); and Brian Waltrip (South Florida).

    Drafted in 2000
    2. N. Garcia
    3. A. Brown
    4. Bocanegra
    5. Korol
    7. Hart
    11. Victorine
    31. Asad
    54. Waltrip
    55. Scavo

    Drafted in 2001
    2. Curtis
    21. Downing
    45. Brent Rahim (picked low since headed to Europe)

    Drafted in 2002
    1. C. Gbandi
    2. Ta. Twellman
    12. Morrison
     
  4. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    2000
    Carl Bussey, Southern Methodist
    Conor Casey, Portland
    Ali Curtis, Duke
    Nick Downing, Maryland
    Mohamed Fahim, Southern Methodist
    Chris Gbandi, Connecticut
    Cory Gibbs, Brown
    T.J. Hannig, Indiana
    Ryan Mack, Indiana
    Kyle Martino, Virginia
    Lee Morrison, Stanford
    Brent Rahim, Connecticut
    McKinley Tennyson, UCLA
    Ryan Trout, Virginia
    Ricardo Villar, Penn State

    Drafted in 2001
    2. Curtis
    21. Downing
    39. Tennyson
    41. Trout
    45. Rahim (drafted low since headed to Europe)
    62. Hannig

    Drafted in 2002
    1. C. Gbandi
    8. Martino
    9. Bussey
    12. L. Morrison
    31. Fahim
    38. Gibbs (drafted low since headed to Europe)
    55. Villar

    Drafted in 2003
    25. Mack

    Undrafted: Casey (signed long-term contract in Europe)

    The draft seems to have diverged from the Hermanns somewhat abruptly.
     
  5. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    2001
    The University of Connecticut's Chris Gbandi, Indiana's Pat Noonan, SMU's Mohamed Fahim and Carl Bussey, Virginia's Kyle Martino and Alecko Eskandarian, Penn State's Ricardo Villar, Saint Louis' Brad Davis, Clemson's Oguchi Onyewu, Stanford's Lee Morrison, Bradley's Gavin Glinton, Furman's John Barry Nusum, and UCLA's Alex Yi.

    Drafted in 2002
    1. Gbandi
    3. B. Davis
    8. Martino
    9. Bussey
    12. L. Morrison
    25. Glinton (drafted low because trying out in Europe)
    31. Fahim
    35. Nusum
    55. Villar

    Drafted in 2003
    1. Eskandarian
    9. Noonan

    Undrafted: Onyewu, signed long-term contract in Europe; Yi, headed to Europe
     
  6. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Well, I'm a little bit puzzled ... most of these lists appear to have been released in August, but this one is from November, 2002, and I can't seem to find anything earlier. The 2001 list actually said that two additional finalists would be added at the end of the season. So this one may be an augmented list ...

    2002
    Alecko Eskandarian, Virginia
    Mike Tranchilla, Creighton
    Pat Noonan, Indiana
    Ryan Mack, Indiana
    Brian Carroll, Wake Forest University;
    Ryan Coiner, University of San Diego;
    Ryan Futagaki, UCLA
    Sumed Ibrahim, University of Maryland
    Nate Jaqua, Portland
    Roger Levesque, Stanford University
    Jordan Quinn, University of South Carolina
    Damani Ralph, University of Connecticut
    David Stokes, North Carolina
    Diego Walsh, Southern Methodist University
    Chris Wingert, St. John's University.

    Drafted in 2003
    1. Eskandarian
    3. Jaqua
    5. Stokes (Hermann finalist, never even 2nd team ACC)
    7. Walsh
    9. Noonan
    11. B. Carroll
    18. Ralph
    23. Levesque
    25. Mack
    34. Tranchilla
    54. Futagaki

    Drafted in 2004
    12. Wingert
    20. Ibrahim

    Undrafted: Coiner, Quinn
     
  7. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    Maybe that says something for an improvement in MLS scouting, not just taking the Hermann players. What was the deal with Cesar Cuellar?
     
  8. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    White and Gregorio might have gone higher if most didn't think they were going to Europe. Unforutanely for Colorado this years draft seemed to be only 14 deep in sure bet players.
     
  9. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    Maybe cause of the SuperDraft? Double the number of picks by doing away with the separate supplemental draft. Not sure that fully explains it.
     
  10. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    Jordan Quinn was at the 2003 combine. Him and Ryan Coiner were listed in the "draft pool". Coiner was drafted in the 1st round of the A-League 03 draft by Portland if that means anything here. I think Coiner went to play in Germany. Not sure if his intentions were known or if he went there after being undrafted.

    http://www.socceramerica.com/article.asp?Art_ID=562132863

    seems like Coiner played PDL 03?
    http://www.socceramerica.com/article.asp?Art_ID=562133251

    http://www.soccertimes.com/americans/2004/aug11.htm

    "Coiner transferred from the Oberliga Westfalen Arminia Bielefeld Amateurs to Union Berlin this season. Before his year-long stay in Bielfeld, he played for the Portland Timbers of the U.S. A-League (second division) and the University of San Diego. "

    Anyone know if Jordan Quinn pursued pro soccer after the combine? He might make a good example for the theory I've posted elsewhere that some of the undrafted talent immediately leave pro soccer rather than play in the USL leagues or trial in small Euro countries. Was an argument for increasing the # of draft rounds to go along with more developmental spots. Think we settled that it's really that I like drafts and questionably in the players/US Soccer's interest. The place MLS needs the most work is ensuring the potential developmental players/rookies see a true possibility of soccer as a career so that those that want to keep playing don't leave for other careers.
     
  11. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    It probably had a small effect, as did the emergence of young P-40's. Even so, that 2001 draft had players like
    1. Carrieri
    3. Lisi
    4. Nelsen
    7. R. Suarez
    9. Mullan
    10. Oughton
    11. Bardales
    15. Namoff
    16. Ching

    Most of these guys were seniors (iirc, Carrieri and Bardales were juniors) and had already established themselves as excellent college players. To their detriment, however, several of the players ahead of them had been on youth national teams, so they had name recognition. (To some extent, Cuellar was in a similar boat to the youth nats, having been a high school superstar and a freshman contributor to UConn's championship team.)

    Incidentally, here's this year's list ... it's ballooned to 25 players:
    Knox Cameron, F, Sr., Michigan, Bronx, N.Y.
    Blake Camp, M, Jr., Duke, Danielsville, Ga.
    Leandro de Oliveira, M, Jr., UAB, Bryan, Texas
    Mike Enfield, M, Sr., UCLA, Ventura, Calif.
    Robby Fulton, G, Sr., Stanford, West Linn, Ore.
    Matt Groenwald, F, Sr., St. John's, Mount Prospect, Ill.
    Ugo Ihemelu, D, Sr., Southern Methodist, Cedar Hill, Texas
    Will John, M, Soph., Saint Louis, Kansas City, Mo.
    Thabiso (Boyzz)Khumalo, M, Sr., Coastal Carolina, Soweto, South Africa
    C.J. Klaas, M, Sr., Washington, Cherry Valley, Ill.
    Aaron Lopez, D, Sr., UCLA, Santa Barbara, Calif.
    Trevor McEachron, D, Sr., Old Dominion, Woodbridge, Va.
    Guy Melamed, D, Sr., Boston College, Nofit, Israel
    Drew Moor, D, Jr., Indiana, Dallas, Texas
    Julian Nash, F, Sr., Creighton, San Leandro, Calif.
    Danny O'Rourke, M, Sr., Indiana, Columbus, Ohio
    Michael Parkhurst, D, Jr., Wake Forest, Cranston, R.I.
    Ryan Pore, F, Jr., Tulsa, Mansfield, Ohio
    Alejandro Salazar, F, Jr., Portland, Portland, Ore.
    Chris Sawyer, G, Sr., Notre Dame, Highlands Ranch, Colo.
    Jack Stewart, D, Sr., Notre Dame, Torrance, Calif.
    Marcus Storey, F, Sr., North Carolina, Missouri City, Texas
    Abe Thompson, F, Sr., Maryland, Fairfax Station, Va.
    Eric Vasquez, M, Sr., Central Florida, Miami, Fla.
    Jamie Watson, F, Soph., North Carolina, Coppell, Texas
     
  12. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    Doubt Vasquez is going to win this one!
     
  13. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Thanks a lot, numerista, I'm trying to put something together right now. Was Luchi Gonzalez, the eventual winner, really not one of the 15 finalists?
     
  14. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    I'm pretty sure that he wasn't on the pre-season list (which had 13 names). This link says that he was only honorable mention for the NSCAA's pre-season All-Americans.

    http://www.matchnight.com/scouting/player.cfm?ID=45

    IIRC, something similar has happened with college basketball's Naismith Award, too. Their national player of the year isn't always one of their pre-season "finalists." (If JG reads this thread, he could probably clarify that one.)
     
  15. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Thanks again.

    Evaluating drafts is a really difficult thing to do definitively, because a lot of factors - age, position, year, expansion/contraction, go into determining who is drafted where.

    So, to start determining how the Hermanns have fared, I just took a look at first rounders and minutes played as rookies. Ignoring goalkeepers, there have been 19 Hermann finalists drafted in the first round of the last 5 SuperDrafts, and 35 other players. The 19 finalists garnered an average of 1190 minutes in their rookie years*, versus an average of 1074 minutes for the non-Hermanns. Much of this is accounted for by the fact that Hermanns tended to be drafted a little higher - 5.52 on average versus 6.5 - if I did the linear regression right, that gives an expected value of 1156 for the Hermanns, and 1065 for the non-Hermanns. This seems to indicate that teams are not drafting Hermanns too high.

    *I counted Chris Gbandi's rookie year as 2003
     
  16. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Thanks for looking into that. As you say, it's tough to produce the right criteria, but I'm none too keen on the rookie minutes thing. I feel like that's more a reflection of a team's expectations for a player, rather than the player's actual ability. The kind of Hermann busts I had in mind were Steve Shak and Jason Moore.

    Shak
    2000 - 1393 minutes played
    2001 - 806 mins.
    2002 - 1 min

    Moore
    1999 - 999 minutes played
    2000 - 2385 mins.
    2001 - 1798 mins.
    2002 - 314 mins.
    2003 - 328 mins.

    In Moore's case, teams didn't really give up on him until after his third season ... so I guess this really is a very difficult issue to evaluate.
     
  17. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    I also did sophomore seasons - however, as we go further back, we're looking at 2 or 3 seasons worth of data, which isn't a lot of data to make conclusions by. Shak may have played some his sophomore season, but 800 minutes is still way below expectations (1545) for a first overall pick.


    I messed up the numbers a bit when I did this earlier, the non-Hermann rookies have a slight, but not really significant, advantage over the Hermanns. This goes up again in the sophomore season, but I don't really think it can be argued that Hermanns are being drafted far too high:

    Code:
            	Actual	Expected Diff.
    Rookie H	1200	1193	7
    Rookie NH	1101	1080	21
    			
    Soph H	1168	1184	-15
    Soph NH	1069	1040	29
    
     
  18. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Confusinger and confusinger ... a list of "semi-finalists" has now been released:
    Jason Garey, Jr., Forward, Gonzalez, La., Maryland
    Kevin Goldthwaite, Sr., Midfielder, Sacramento, Calif., Notre Dame
    Matt Groenwald, Sr., Midfielder, Mt. Prospect, Ill., St. John's
    Brad Guzan, So., Goalkeeper, Homer Glen, Ill., South Carolina
    Will John, So., Forward, Kansas City, Mo., Saint Louis
    C.J. Klaas, Sr. Defender, Cherry Valley, Ill., Washington
    Aaron Lopez, Sr., Defender, Santa Barbara, Calif., UCLA
    Guy Melamed, Sr., Defender, Nofit, Israel, Boston College
    Drew Moor, Jr., Defender, Dallas, Texas, Indiana
    Julian Nash, Sr. Forward, San Leandro, Calif., Creighton
    Danny O'Rourke, Sr., Midfielder, Columbus, Ohio, Indiana
    Ryan Pore, Jr., Forward, Mansfield, Ohio, Tulsa
    Gonzalo Segares, Sr., Defender, San Jose, Calif., Virginia Commonwealth
    Jack Stewart, Sr. Midfielder, Torrance, Calif., Notre Dame
    Abe Thompson, Sr., Forward, Fairfax Station, Va., Maryland

    4 of the 15 semifinalists weren't on the original watch list. Among them is Maryland junior Jason Garey, who has to be considered one of the favorites.
     

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