I don't know in how much esteem this list is generally held. But, with Buzz of 3rdddegree.net putting out a preliminary draft list, and using the watch list as a basis for it, I thought I'd take a look at past lists. In 2002, getting on the watch list pretty much guaranteed that a player was going to be drafted. Here's the 16-player list: Code: Kevin Ara Sr. Harvard Ryan Cochrane Jr. Santa Clara Cesar Cuellar Sr. Connecticut Clint Dempsey Jr. Furman Ned Grabavoy Jr. Indiana Adolpho Gregorio Sr. UCLA Matt Haefner Sr. Pennsylvania William Hesmer Sr. Pennsylvania Sumed Ibrahim Sr. Maryland Antou Jallow Jr. Wisconsin-Milwaukee Guy Melamed Jr. Boston College Joseph Ngwenva Sr. Costal Carolina Abe Thompson Jr. Maryland David Wagenfuhr Sr. Creighton Jeremiah White Sr. Wake Forest Chris Wingert Sr. St. John's The only senior on the list that didn't get drafted was the mercurial Cesar Cuellar, that is, 9/10 of the seniors did get drafted, and generally very high. There were 50 seniors drafted in 2003, with an average position of 34.5; the 9 watch-list seniors averaged 21.9, and 7/9 were in the first half (Wagenfuhr, 32; Haefner, 52). Of the 6 underclassmen, three joined MLS this year, getting drafted at 6, 9, and 15. The other 3 look sure to get drafted come January. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any watch lists before 2003, so this is as post is as much a request for help as it is an attempt to inform. So, if anybody can find them, I'd appreciate it.
If we can get enough data, it'd also be interesting to see how often Hermann finalists live up to their high picks. Here's the 1998 list: (if you look for "finalists," I suspect they'll be easier to locate.) Lazo Alavanja (Indiana), Keith Beach (Maryland), Adin Brown (William & Mary), Matt Chulis (Virginia), Nick Garcia (Indiana), Jay Heaps (Duke), Dema Kovalenko (Indiana), Wojtek Krakowiak (Clemson), Jason Moore (Virginia), Richard Mulrooney (Creighton), Antonio Otero (American), Maurizio Rocha (Connecticut), Steve Shak (UCLA), Sasha Victorine (UCLA), Evan Whitfield (Duke). Drafted in 1999 1. Jas. Moore 2. Heaps 3. Mulrooney 4. Alavanja 9. Chulis 11. Whitfield 15. Krakowiak 17. Beach Drafted in 2000 1. Shak 2. N. Garcia 3. A. Brown 11. Victorine Otero, Kovalenko, and Rocha were all 1999 P-40's and were assigned to teams, not drafted. Suffice it to say, this crop was drafted much higher than last year's.
1999 Maryland's Taylor Twellman and Nick Downing, Indiana's Nick Garcia and Aleksey Korol; Carlos Bocanegra and Sasha Victorine (UCLA); Chris Gbandi and Brent Rahim (Connecticut); Shaker Asad (N.C. State); Adin Brown (William & Mary); Ali Curtis (Duke); Wes Hart (Washington); Lee Morrison (Stanford); Peter Scavo (Seton Hall); and Brian Waltrip (South Florida). Drafted in 2000 2. N. Garcia 3. A. Brown 4. Bocanegra 5. Korol 7. Hart 11. Victorine 31. Asad 54. Waltrip 55. Scavo Drafted in 2001 2. Curtis 21. Downing 45. Brent Rahim (picked low since headed to Europe) Drafted in 2002 1. C. Gbandi 2. Ta. Twellman 12. Morrison
2000 Carl Bussey, Southern Methodist Conor Casey, Portland Ali Curtis, Duke Nick Downing, Maryland Mohamed Fahim, Southern Methodist Chris Gbandi, Connecticut Cory Gibbs, Brown T.J. Hannig, Indiana Ryan Mack, Indiana Kyle Martino, Virginia Lee Morrison, Stanford Brent Rahim, Connecticut McKinley Tennyson, UCLA Ryan Trout, Virginia Ricardo Villar, Penn State Drafted in 2001 2. Curtis 21. Downing 39. Tennyson 41. Trout 45. Rahim (drafted low since headed to Europe) 62. Hannig Drafted in 2002 1. C. Gbandi 8. Martino 9. Bussey 12. L. Morrison 31. Fahim 38. Gibbs (drafted low since headed to Europe) 55. Villar Drafted in 2003 25. Mack Undrafted: Casey (signed long-term contract in Europe) The draft seems to have diverged from the Hermanns somewhat abruptly.
2001 The University of Connecticut's Chris Gbandi, Indiana's Pat Noonan, SMU's Mohamed Fahim and Carl Bussey, Virginia's Kyle Martino and Alecko Eskandarian, Penn State's Ricardo Villar, Saint Louis' Brad Davis, Clemson's Oguchi Onyewu, Stanford's Lee Morrison, Bradley's Gavin Glinton, Furman's John Barry Nusum, and UCLA's Alex Yi. Drafted in 2002 1. Gbandi 3. B. Davis 8. Martino 9. Bussey 12. L. Morrison 25. Glinton (drafted low because trying out in Europe) 31. Fahim 35. Nusum 55. Villar Drafted in 2003 1. Eskandarian 9. Noonan Undrafted: Onyewu, signed long-term contract in Europe; Yi, headed to Europe
Well, I'm a little bit puzzled ... most of these lists appear to have been released in August, but this one is from November, 2002, and I can't seem to find anything earlier. The 2001 list actually said that two additional finalists would be added at the end of the season. So this one may be an augmented list ... 2002 Alecko Eskandarian, Virginia Mike Tranchilla, Creighton Pat Noonan, Indiana Ryan Mack, Indiana Brian Carroll, Wake Forest University; Ryan Coiner, University of San Diego; Ryan Futagaki, UCLA Sumed Ibrahim, University of Maryland Nate Jaqua, Portland Roger Levesque, Stanford University Jordan Quinn, University of South Carolina Damani Ralph, University of Connecticut David Stokes, North Carolina Diego Walsh, Southern Methodist University Chris Wingert, St. John's University. Drafted in 2003 1. Eskandarian 3. Jaqua 5. Stokes (Hermann finalist, never even 2nd team ACC) 7. Walsh 9. Noonan 11. B. Carroll 18. Ralph 23. Levesque 25. Mack 34. Tranchilla 54. Futagaki Drafted in 2004 12. Wingert 20. Ibrahim Undrafted: Coiner, Quinn
Maybe that says something for an improvement in MLS scouting, not just taking the Hermann players. What was the deal with Cesar Cuellar?
White and Gregorio might have gone higher if most didn't think they were going to Europe. Unforutanely for Colorado this years draft seemed to be only 14 deep in sure bet players.
Maybe cause of the SuperDraft? Double the number of picks by doing away with the separate supplemental draft. Not sure that fully explains it.
Jordan Quinn was at the 2003 combine. Him and Ryan Coiner were listed in the "draft pool". Coiner was drafted in the 1st round of the A-League 03 draft by Portland if that means anything here. I think Coiner went to play in Germany. Not sure if his intentions were known or if he went there after being undrafted. http://www.socceramerica.com/article.asp?Art_ID=562132863 seems like Coiner played PDL 03? http://www.socceramerica.com/article.asp?Art_ID=562133251 http://www.soccertimes.com/americans/2004/aug11.htm "Coiner transferred from the Oberliga Westfalen Arminia Bielefeld Amateurs to Union Berlin this season. Before his year-long stay in Bielfeld, he played for the Portland Timbers of the U.S. A-League (second division) and the University of San Diego. " Anyone know if Jordan Quinn pursued pro soccer after the combine? He might make a good example for the theory I've posted elsewhere that some of the undrafted talent immediately leave pro soccer rather than play in the USL leagues or trial in small Euro countries. Was an argument for increasing the # of draft rounds to go along with more developmental spots. Think we settled that it's really that I like drafts and questionably in the players/US Soccer's interest. The place MLS needs the most work is ensuring the potential developmental players/rookies see a true possibility of soccer as a career so that those that want to keep playing don't leave for other careers.
It probably had a small effect, as did the emergence of young P-40's. Even so, that 2001 draft had players like 1. Carrieri 3. Lisi 4. Nelsen 7. R. Suarez 9. Mullan 10. Oughton 11. Bardales 15. Namoff 16. Ching Most of these guys were seniors (iirc, Carrieri and Bardales were juniors) and had already established themselves as excellent college players. To their detriment, however, several of the players ahead of them had been on youth national teams, so they had name recognition. (To some extent, Cuellar was in a similar boat to the youth nats, having been a high school superstar and a freshman contributor to UConn's championship team.) Incidentally, here's this year's list ... it's ballooned to 25 players: Knox Cameron, F, Sr., Michigan, Bronx, N.Y. Blake Camp, M, Jr., Duke, Danielsville, Ga. Leandro de Oliveira, M, Jr., UAB, Bryan, Texas Mike Enfield, M, Sr., UCLA, Ventura, Calif. Robby Fulton, G, Sr., Stanford, West Linn, Ore. Matt Groenwald, F, Sr., St. John's, Mount Prospect, Ill. Ugo Ihemelu, D, Sr., Southern Methodist, Cedar Hill, Texas Will John, M, Soph., Saint Louis, Kansas City, Mo. Thabiso (Boyzz)Khumalo, M, Sr., Coastal Carolina, Soweto, South Africa C.J. Klaas, M, Sr., Washington, Cherry Valley, Ill. Aaron Lopez, D, Sr., UCLA, Santa Barbara, Calif. Trevor McEachron, D, Sr., Old Dominion, Woodbridge, Va. Guy Melamed, D, Sr., Boston College, Nofit, Israel Drew Moor, D, Jr., Indiana, Dallas, Texas Julian Nash, F, Sr., Creighton, San Leandro, Calif. Danny O'Rourke, M, Sr., Indiana, Columbus, Ohio Michael Parkhurst, D, Jr., Wake Forest, Cranston, R.I. Ryan Pore, F, Jr., Tulsa, Mansfield, Ohio Alejandro Salazar, F, Jr., Portland, Portland, Ore. Chris Sawyer, G, Sr., Notre Dame, Highlands Ranch, Colo. Jack Stewart, D, Sr., Notre Dame, Torrance, Calif. Marcus Storey, F, Sr., North Carolina, Missouri City, Texas Abe Thompson, F, Sr., Maryland, Fairfax Station, Va. Eric Vasquez, M, Sr., Central Florida, Miami, Fla. Jamie Watson, F, Soph., North Carolina, Coppell, Texas
Thanks a lot, numerista, I'm trying to put something together right now. Was Luchi Gonzalez, the eventual winner, really not one of the 15 finalists?
I'm pretty sure that he wasn't on the pre-season list (which had 13 names). This link says that he was only honorable mention for the NSCAA's pre-season All-Americans. http://www.matchnight.com/scouting/player.cfm?ID=45 IIRC, something similar has happened with college basketball's Naismith Award, too. Their national player of the year isn't always one of their pre-season "finalists." (If JG reads this thread, he could probably clarify that one.)
Thanks again. Evaluating drafts is a really difficult thing to do definitively, because a lot of factors - age, position, year, expansion/contraction, go into determining who is drafted where. So, to start determining how the Hermanns have fared, I just took a look at first rounders and minutes played as rookies. Ignoring goalkeepers, there have been 19 Hermann finalists drafted in the first round of the last 5 SuperDrafts, and 35 other players. The 19 finalists garnered an average of 1190 minutes in their rookie years*, versus an average of 1074 minutes for the non-Hermanns. Much of this is accounted for by the fact that Hermanns tended to be drafted a little higher - 5.52 on average versus 6.5 - if I did the linear regression right, that gives an expected value of 1156 for the Hermanns, and 1065 for the non-Hermanns. This seems to indicate that teams are not drafting Hermanns too high. *I counted Chris Gbandi's rookie year as 2003
Thanks for looking into that. As you say, it's tough to produce the right criteria, but I'm none too keen on the rookie minutes thing. I feel like that's more a reflection of a team's expectations for a player, rather than the player's actual ability. The kind of Hermann busts I had in mind were Steve Shak and Jason Moore. Shak 2000 - 1393 minutes played 2001 - 806 mins. 2002 - 1 min Moore 1999 - 999 minutes played 2000 - 2385 mins. 2001 - 1798 mins. 2002 - 314 mins. 2003 - 328 mins. In Moore's case, teams didn't really give up on him until after his third season ... so I guess this really is a very difficult issue to evaluate.
I also did sophomore seasons - however, as we go further back, we're looking at 2 or 3 seasons worth of data, which isn't a lot of data to make conclusions by. Shak may have played some his sophomore season, but 800 minutes is still way below expectations (1545) for a first overall pick. I messed up the numbers a bit when I did this earlier, the non-Hermann rookies have a slight, but not really significant, advantage over the Hermanns. This goes up again in the sophomore season, but I don't really think it can be argued that Hermanns are being drafted far too high: Code: Actual Expected Diff. Rookie H 1200 1193 7 Rookie NH 1101 1080 21 Soph H 1168 1184 -15 Soph NH 1069 1040 29
Confusinger and confusinger ... a list of "semi-finalists" has now been released: Jason Garey, Jr., Forward, Gonzalez, La., Maryland Kevin Goldthwaite, Sr., Midfielder, Sacramento, Calif., Notre Dame Matt Groenwald, Sr., Midfielder, Mt. Prospect, Ill., St. John's Brad Guzan, So., Goalkeeper, Homer Glen, Ill., South Carolina Will John, So., Forward, Kansas City, Mo., Saint Louis C.J. Klaas, Sr. Defender, Cherry Valley, Ill., Washington Aaron Lopez, Sr., Defender, Santa Barbara, Calif., UCLA Guy Melamed, Sr., Defender, Nofit, Israel, Boston College Drew Moor, Jr., Defender, Dallas, Texas, Indiana Julian Nash, Sr. Forward, San Leandro, Calif., Creighton Danny O'Rourke, Sr., Midfielder, Columbus, Ohio, Indiana Ryan Pore, Jr., Forward, Mansfield, Ohio, Tulsa Gonzalo Segares, Sr., Defender, San Jose, Calif., Virginia Commonwealth Jack Stewart, Sr. Midfielder, Torrance, Calif., Notre Dame Abe Thompson, Sr., Forward, Fairfax Station, Va., Maryland 4 of the 15 semifinalists weren't on the original watch list. Among them is Maryland junior Jason Garey, who has to be considered one of the favorites.