Heather Wilson starting early...

taosjohn · Aug 26, 2006

Heather Wilson started running negative TV ads on her opponent, State AG Patricia Madrid tonight.

Wilson's seat is more than in danger as Madrid has been a very popular local candidate and has the advantage of not being a honky. Wilson barely retained office against a not so impressive opponent last time out.

Reason I started a thread was to ask, is this happening around the country, or is it a Wilson strategem not GOP in general?

MassachusettsRef · Aug 27, 2006

taosjohn said:

Heather Wilson started running negative TV ads on her opponent, State AG Patricia Madrid tonight.
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Actually, Wilson went up 7/14 on KQRE with attack ads. Madrid went up 7/19 on KOB with negative ads of her own (linking Wilson to DeLay). This has been going on for quite awhile, already.

Reason I started a thread was to ask, is this happening around the country, or is it a Wilson strategem not GOP in general?
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Attack ads against Democrats? No, not so much, yet. The attack ads around the country are mainly aimed at Republicans so far, because they are the incumbents. GOP negative ads will mostly come post-Labor Day. However, the other marquee district with some serious negative campaigning this early is IN08 (Hostettler v. Ellsworth).

There are several reasons why this is going on so early in NM01:

1) this is a huge race, with the district split about 50/50
2) Madrid is a statewide figure, so she comes to the race with built-in name ID, therefore, Wilson must drive up her negatives
3) both campaigns have plenty of money to spend here
4) Wilson is a tenacious campaigner to begin with, and she knows she's in a dogfight
5) most importantly, with the scandal surrounding the treasurer's office, there is tangible dirt on Madrid

Also, not that I truly believe this article, but the Tribune thinks Madrid has already lost the race. This is an archived article, dated Aug 19, so I'll only quote passages [you'll note that the author isn't exactly a fan of Wilson]:

Albuquerque Tribune said:

If I'm wrong about this, I hereby publicly invite Patricia Madrid to join me Nov. 8 as I eat this column. After all, if I'm wrong, Madrid will be right, and the following - The Trib's version of "Dewey Defeats Truman" - will be shoved down my gullet, hopefully with a chaser of green chile stew and a cold beverage to be named later.

An inky, newsprint side dish doesn't exactly make for a dream meal. But I'm going to chance it, anyway, because this needs to be said:

Madrid likely has lost Nov. 7's 1st Congressional District race - amazingly, before the weather ever got cool.

Here's why:

The first rule of politics, from City Council to the presidency, is to go on offense - first, always first, before the other team has a chance to run its own plays.

Madrid's Democratic campaign has failed to note this reality, thus allowing Republican Rep. Heather Wilson to frame Madrid on TV as - wait for it - the "Attorney General Who Didn't Go After Robert Vigil." Cue the eerie music from "Law and Order." Dah-dahhh. Never mind that Wilson's charge is, at best, debatable. Never mind that it's largely secondary - hell, incredibly secondary - to the qualifications a U.S. congresswoman would need to represent our district in a world full of terrorism, war, stultifyingly high energy prices, North Korea with nukes, the health care morass, a yawning federal deficit, invasive domestic spying and frightening environmental concerns. And that's just Monday.

Nope. Deadeye Heather got the drop on Passive Patricia early, and now, only a wild and lucky shot in the next few months will change the minds of voters. In allowing Wilson to make the campaign about Vigil - Vigil? Oh, please. Even a Republican U.S. attorney couldn't convict him - Madrid has basically spent the past month fending off GOP assertions about what she did or didn't do in prosecuting corruption. Most of the AG's response ads, in case you've missed them, basically whisper: "Liar, liar, pants on fire."

...

Maybe all this is in the offing from the Madrid campaign, and maybe it will help change the momentum. But in the politics of today, with early voting and constant media, you need a rolling start when voters' impressions haven't hardened - early, in July, in August. That's especially important against Wilson, who enjoys real - and sometimes, hard to fathom - popularity among 1st District voters who see New Mexico as neither red nor blue, but a hazy shade of gray.

Wilson has come out firing, and Madrid has spent the first month looking for her helmet.

Note to the Madrid campaign while you search for a hard hat: Nobody goes to Washington while backpedaling.
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Foosinho · Aug 27, 2006

MassachusettsRef said:

Attack ads against Democrats? No, not so much, yet.
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There are here in Ohio, and the GOP are the incumbents. DeWine already went negative against Brown, actually adding fake smoke to footage of 9/11 to "drama it up" and suggest Brown is "soft on terror".

Blackwell hasn't run a positive ad yet - in the primary or general - because I don't think he's attractive to moderate voters, and he knows it.

MassachusettsRef · Aug 27, 2006

Foosinho said:

There are here in Ohio, and the GOP are the incumbents. DeWine already went negative against Brown, actually adding fake smoke to footage of 9/11 to "drama it up" and suggest Brown is "soft on terror".

Blackwell hasn't run a positive ad yet - in the primary or general - because I don't think he's attractive to moderate voters, and he knows it.
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I was talking more about House races, sorry.

And even still, there are exceptions there. NM01 is one, as is IN08. There are a couple others (VA02, TX17) but those are either in response to attack ads or attack ads against incumbent DEMs.

But, primarily, GOP House incumbents wait until after Labor Day to start their media blitzes. Statewide races are a little different, because you need to get way ahead of the game and are usually dealing with multiple media markets.