Hard Ceiling for MLS

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by Rick Sanchez, Feb 16, 2022.

  1. Rick Sanchez

    Rick Sanchez Member

    Manchester City
    United States
    Nov 11, 2021
    Is there a hard cap for the growth of MLS based on the geographical assumption that the MLS will never put teams into the Champions League. To become a great league, and by that, I mean one that can compete talent wise with the big 5 Euro leagues, you have to have great talent. That means having great players play in your league in their prime, not when they are just looking to cash a few more checks before they are simply unable to play.

    I just don't see any of these kind of players agreeing to play in MLS for the simple reason that they would have to accept that they will not be in Champions League. I mean if you watch any coverage of Premier League or any of the others you hear the announcers talking about the importance of this team or that team being able to qualify for Champions League or they will have difficulty getting players. Now that's just for teams that are usually in Champions League but may just miss for a year by a point or two. Do we really think any of the players of that quality are going to volunteer to play in a league that has no chance to put them in Champion's League?

    Without being able to sign players of that quality, there is only so far MLS can get to in terms of quality.
     
  2. Minutemanii

    Minutemanii Member+

    Dec 29, 2005
    Abington MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think there may be some truth to it but I suspect it's not to the point where it's overriding in most cases. I mean, someone could consider MLS while also understanding that maybe some other day in the future Europe is an option for them. I also think MLS and Liga MX has the potential to someday rival UEFA.
     
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  3. AeroNaught

    AeroNaught Member+

    Atlanta United
    Feb 14, 2007
    Birmingham, AL
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You seem sincere so I'll assume you're not a troll, but the scenario you're outlining above largely doesn't exist anymore. There has been a large influx of talented players under 23 years of age in the past few years, and even the older "established" signings are now trending towards 29-31 years of age instead of 34-36.

    Not exactly sure I agree with your sentiment that a player's ultimate goal is to play in UEFA Champions League, but even if it is these young players are being sold to larger teams in various European leagues which proves that playing in MLS can eventually lead you to play in Champions League.
     
  4. Chesco United

    Chesco United Member+

    DC United
    Jun 24, 2001
    Chester County, PA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    There's been a large influx of talented Latin American players in recent years.
     
  5. PhillyMLS

    PhillyMLS Member+

    Oct 24, 2000
    SE PA
    This ignores one big thing. How much money there is in American TV contracts. The NFL's current deal is worth 11 billion a year. Now, let's go crazy for a second and say MLS becomes popular enough to get half that amount for a 32 team league. That is $171,875,000 per team just in domestic TV rights. A quarter of the NFL's current deal puts them on par with the EPL, which has the richest TV contract in the world. If MLS gets onto the same level as MLB at any point for all their TV deals then that would put MLS teams at the top of the world for TV money. This also ignores other things such as how much corporate money can be poured into clubs.

    So, no. There probably isn't an upper limit because NFL money could quite literally make MLS an entire league that could compete with the biggest teams in the world. Now, I don't think that is likely, but it is possible considering that a TV deal that matches the current NFL deal would give each team over $340 million a year.
     
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  6. Rick Sanchez

    Rick Sanchez Member

    Manchester City
    United States
    Nov 11, 2021
    Name one player currently starting for a team in one of the big five Euro leagues that has qualified for Champion's League that would accept a transfer to MLS for the same money?
     
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  7. TheJoeGreene

    TheJoeGreene Member+

    Aug 19, 2012
    The Lubbock Texas
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    And your inner douchebag suddenly comes bursting forth. Away with you troll.
     
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  8. Rick Sanchez

    Rick Sanchez Member

    Manchester City
    United States
    Nov 11, 2021
    So that's a hard no on a name, correct?
     
  9. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    There’s still room for mega growth even without getting to the level of Europe’s very best clubs. Can’t say this “hard ceiling” worries me.
     
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  10. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Zlatan? I mean, he went from a CL team to MLS back to a CL team so...

    (Not to feed the troll, but the answer is right there)
     
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  11. PhillyMLS

    PhillyMLS Member+

    Oct 24, 2000
    SE PA
    Name one player starting for a Champions League club that would have joined Manchester City in 2008 through 2010 for the same money they were already earning. Man City (and the EPL in general) got to where they were by spending everyone else into the ground.

    And it really doesn't matter what anyone says here because your response can just be "no he wouldn't" because there is no way to prove a hypothetical. Just like I can't prove that a player could join.
     
  12. Rick Sanchez

    Rick Sanchez Member

    Manchester City
    United States
    Nov 11, 2021
    He was clearly at the end of his career, try again.
     
  13. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    Ah more artificial limits. For instance, a transfer for the same money!!??!? That's not a normal thing in any situation.
     
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  14. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's funny, your question didn't say anything about where a player was in his career. You asked if a starter from a top 5 league CL team would move to MLS. Zlatan did, and then moved back to starting for a top 5 league CL team. If you want to ask a different question, try again.
     
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  15. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    The true answer to your original question, if it was honest curiosity, is that no there is no hard cap to MLS but that UEFA has numerous advantages that mean they will for the foreseeable future be the center of the sport. These are the same advantages that have allowed them to eclipse CONMEBOL which for decades was equal to and often superior to UEFA.
     
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  16. Papin

    Papin BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 19, 1998
    le côté obscur
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Didn't a bunch of top players in their prime move to China a few years ago, just for the money?
     
  17. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    Good call. And back when MLS was a lesser league Beckham went from a UCL starter to MLS and back to the UCL so I don’t quite see the relevancy of the question. Obviously MLS won’t be regularly attracting the word’s best players anytime soon. But I fully expect the quality of signings to keep going up.

    NT fans hate this prediction but I expect CP will be in MLS around 27-28.
     
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  18. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    #18 xtomx, Feb 16, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2022
    Xherdan Shaqiri, two weeks ago for the Chicago Fire.
    He played in Champions League last season for Liverpool. He was a sometimes starter on the stacked Liverpool teams of the past few years.
    Admittedly, he only played in UEFA League this season, after transferring to Lyon from, I remind you, Liverpool.

    Also, didn't Matuidi and Higuain just do this in 2020, jumping from Juventus to Miami?

    To actually answer your question in context, I suspect there are dozens of player that would do it, but very few actually will do it.
    Why?
    A) MLS clubs generally (at least not until the past couple of years) splash out the transfer fee cash needed to grab such a player. This is changing and changing rapidly. Also, MLS has been looking to Central and South America for these higher priced transfers, for a variety of reasons.
    B) The players that would do it probably would not be worth it to MLS, as MLS clubs are often and understandably looking for a big bang for the buck.
    More than just a Champions League-quality player, but a player who can make an impact on and off the field for MLS and the club.


    Really? Wasn't he STILL starting and playing in Champions League after leaving MLS?
    Oh, yes, he was.
     
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  19. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why are you asking a question about where MLS is now when the topic of this thread is about whether MLS has a hard cap in the future?

    This may come as a shocker to you, but MLS is fairly far down on the quality scale of leagues globally. That isn't necessarily because MLS can't play in UCL, but rather, because the sport is just not as popular in the US as it is in other countries. If MLS were as popular in the US as the top soccer league in most other countries are, MLS clubs would, quite literally, curb stomp pretty much every club in the world with regards to player acquisition. Just look at where NFL payrolls are. Every team in the league has a payroll of around $250 million. That's as much as, if not more than, the top clubs in the top 5 leagues pay for players AND transfer fees. Is it your contention that if MLS had an entire league full of teams paying as much as the top clubs in other countries that the top players wouldn't be playing in MLS just because it isn't in UEFA?
     
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  20. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    A couple of others:

    Douglas Costa. He played for Bayern and played in, I think, 6 Champions League matches last season.
    Oh, and he won the friggin' Bundesliga last season.
    He is now at LA Galaxy.

    Victor Wanyama. Moved from Tottenham to Montreal in 2020.
     
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  21. asoc

    asoc Member+

    Sep 28, 2007
    Tacoma
    Rick, I see you are newer to Big Soccer. Welcome.

    You mentioned Champions League specifically, but then only mention teams from the big 5 leagues.
    How many teams is that? 18 currently in the group stage?

    That is not a lot of teams when looking at the global supply of players and that means you are leaving out a lot of players that could be there that aren't.

    MLS is growing steadily. We will see what the next TV contract looks like as that will determine the next bump.

    There is no rush to be on the same level as the top leagues. So all of this discussion is for years down the road. We are talking 20+ years.

    You want to look at the steady growth of the league and the increased investment in infrastructure to see where those with the money project it to go.

    Its still a growing sport in the US with lots of room to grow. As pointed out earlier in this thread, MLS wouldn't even need to be on the same level as the NFL or MLB to have EPL type of TV contracts. And if it ever get those type of deals then watch out.

    You want to put caps on what MLS teams could pay for a player for the sake of this discussion. Do you want reality or do you want fantasy? Reality is that you can't put a cap on what a team is willing to spend on a player. Fantasy is you putting in unrealistic restrictions on this discussion.

    If an MLS team wants to spend to attract a player over, they can. That is reality. You can't put an artificial limit on that if we are dealing with reality.

    Now for my player example, Lorenzo Insigne. 30 years old. Plays for Napoli. currently sitting in 3rd in the standings. 2 points behind 1st place. 1 point behind 2nd place.

    I don't know how old you are. But set a calendar for 20 years from now and lets continue this discussion.

    Look at where MLS was in 2002 and look where its at now.

    You should look at the young South American talent MLS is bringing over.

    Heck, look at a player like Nouhou Tolo who plays for Cameroon. He put Salah in his pocket and kept him there the whole game. Nouhou was originally signed as a 19 year old to a second team contract for the Sounders.

    The league is developing talent and it's attracting young talent. As MLS continues to grow and continues to expand out its academies and team pyramids (1st team, 2nd team, academy systems, etc) its only going to get better and better.

    The league is steadily improving both on and off the field. My prediction is that there will come a time in 20-50 years that MLS will rival the top leagues in Europe and MLS will actually have a more competitive league because of its structure than what the majority of European leagues have with a few top teams and the rest not having a real shot at anything. So your big 5 Champions League teams still may be better off than MLS. But MLS as a whole will basically be at the level of those tier 2 big 5 teams. And when you have 32 teams at that level you are naturally going to have talent that is more than capable of being on any of those top CL teams spread around the league. MLS will be siphoning up foreign talent from the 2nd tier leagues and teams and aggregating it all in one league and then top players will basically only be leaving for those top teams for nice sums of money.

    I am bullish for long term growth and success for this league. Its going to be incremental growth. Its going to keep chipping away and growing. We are looking at 20+ years. Unless there is some kind of massive shift and MLS gets some huge TV contract comparable with the top leagues out of the blue (not happening). Otherwise its going to be small and continued incremental growth and all of the sudden people are going to say, "wait a second, what just happened to MLS and when did it become so big and get all these players?" and when they look back they will see the small incremental steps its been taking all along and understand.
     
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  22. wantmlsphilly

    wantmlsphilly Member+

    Aug 2, 2006
    Philadelphia, Pa.
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #22 wantmlsphilly, Feb 17, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2022
    He does have a fair point in Champions League no doubt. Most players leaving do look at it as bigger than winning the league they might currently be playing in. Aaronson looked quite happy to play and get to the round of sixteen. Others believe it's the standard to be judged by and it makes sense because as you get further in you're actually playing teams that would resemble a league closer to parity in spending. Granted you have teams not in the upper echelon of European royalty but still one of the top spenders in their league. That's hard to compete against especially here where CONCACAF Champions League is basically the Liga MX show.
    .
    Now I do agree that the steady climb is the right way to go and that if revenue would raise even tenfold a league of 32 teams with the ability to spend more evenly would definitely start bringing in more players from everywhere who could make more here than they get could at in one of the second tier clubs in Europe. I'm sure the amount you make over your career is also important. Also, who knows maybe in the future Leagues Cup might be a thing as the format and the timing of it has the chance to be a revenue generator. Now I'm not saying it would rival CL but just be a new source to create more revenue and bring in or keep more talented players. CL definitely is the carrot for many a player as it puts you on the stage that the whole of Europe pays attention to. Hence the problem with CCL as here it's a second rate competition with hardly any prize money and games being shown on FS2. I don't even think Liga MX players think it's as important as winning Liga MX.
    .
    The power of CL is the top five leagues sit on a continent that is the size of the US and have another five leagues with a few legacy clubs that are worthy of the competition. Once you get past MLS and Liga MX the pickings come down to a couple of teams in Costa Rica and the same for Panama. That will never catch CL in terms of revenue and interest on a global scale.
    .
    The only thing that could come close is if somehow you could create a hemisphere league.... or Cup with South America. Something that would generate for the teams making the finals an 8 figure payout, and the teams in the round of eight, a seven figure pay out. For me the Cup style tournament would be the way to go because of length of travel. You could even break down the rounds into groups of twelve and have them in four different host cities throughout the continents and then the second round in one host country. I would imagine teams from Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia mixed with Liga MX, MLS, Liga FPD, Liga Panameña de Fútbol would be enough to generate interest and revenue. It's also I believe what might be looked at if Leagues Cup ever hits it big as a revenue generator. You would think getting teams from South America on board would be quite easy if they can show them the results after a decade. Something on this scale could create revenue, exposure for teams beyond their domestic market and a competition that might catch the eye of Europe if it's played in their off season. More so it could give these leagues the ability to retain and recruit more talent. With the chance of finishing top six in your domestic league qualifying you into the tournament it would add another level of excitement for results in your domestic league. It could help recruit players to move to the smaller leagues in Panama, Costa Rica & Columbia if the prize money is substantial for making the tournament. Until the region has a reason to retain players, I agree that for most players on this side of the world, the goal is to get to Europe. If you can give them a better alternative not to go, you will need something of this scale.
     
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  23. asoc

    asoc Member+

    Sep 28, 2007
    Tacoma
    Just linking this here because of the comment about aging players.

     
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  24. Rick Sanchez

    Rick Sanchez Member

    Manchester City
    United States
    Nov 11, 2021
    This is by far the most reasonable response to my question which was by the way, a legitimate concern. I'd love for MLS to some day attain the same quality of play as the Premier League, I just see the CL thing as a serious roadblock. It appears to me, at this point, as a problem with no real solution.
     
  25. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    Club World Cup is already there as a mechanism for teams outside Europe to directly compete on the field. And while it’s not a huge deal now that could change in 30 years or so. I’d say the most serious roadblocks for club ball in the U.S. are still the sport’s fractured fan nature plus the “traditional” American sports still soaking up most of the attention.
     
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