So, very approximately, a 75k swing will mean that Trump wins it. 101,449 voted "uncommitted" in the Democratic primary.
There is a good chance these uncommitted voters will still vote for Biden (assuming they voted in 2020). They are voting uncommitted on a primary that is meaningless and has no real consequence. They want to send a message they are not happy with the current situation, but it doesn't mean they won't still vote for Biden when Trump is his opponent.
If you are that terrified that the Muslim vote will lead to a Trump win, you should be doing everything you can to cause the Biden administration to change course. Because I've never, ever seen this level of rage and anger among American Muslims: right now, voting for Biden seen as tantamount to treason.
Muslims in America shouldn’t be that surprised to see a US president supporting Israel though. It’s been the US position going back decades. And while their anger is valid, do they really think they’d be better off with Trump? Trump has already issued a “Muslim ban.” Nobody had even heard of such a thing.
This is exactly how black voters disenfranchised themselves in Georgia for years and then when they finally started organising, discovered that structural antidemocratic legislation limits their ability to out organise it. Disenfranchising yourself is the lazy thing to do. Get organised and work for the policy changes. If you simply don't vote, everyone can ignore your voice.
While this provides the legal basis for continuing the war it only goes so far. Israel is in occupation of large parts of Gaza and as such is responsible for the civilians there. Also it must conduct the war in a proportionate manner. When 95% of the international community has broken ranks with you over the your conduct of the war, perhaps that is because you are acting illegitimately? This is not some bleeding heart liberals saying this - it is the likes of Biden and Baerbock whose countries are still providing weapons.
It's Jill Stein logic. You ''punish' Clinton for accepting corporate donations and set the climate struggle back by a decade. Galaxy brain.
I think most would find themselves in the first two categories. If you were a Biden voter turned off by his Gaza policy, I can't imagine you running into Trump's arms.
Airdropping aid to Gaza would be an absurd and embarrassing gimmick from an impotent administration that persistently refuses to enforce its own laws around military aid and utilize its considerable leverage over Israel. Just a profound policy failure https://t.co/3bEwqlh2R9— Gregg Carlstrom (@glcarlstrom) March 1, 2024 I have to agree with this to a certain extent. Biden is fully supporting Bibi, leaving the U.S. increasingly isolated internationally and in return he does not even seem to have enough leverage to get the aid through. So yes, having to air drop in aid would be ********ing embarrassing.
Eh, I think only a limited percentage turned off by Biden over Gaza will instead give their vote to Trump. So I think Trump needs well over 100K Biden voters from 2020 to stay home. I do think it's possible for him to lose Michigan through a combination of loss of Muslim-American support and the youth vote cooling on him. e.g. that much discussed YouGov poll had 34% of the 18-29 age group express that they found the Israeli response too harsh. Biden won 60% of that age group in Michigan in 2020. If that drops down closer to 50%, Biden probably can't win the state.
Aren't airdrops simply a PR stunt for the cameras? People are saying, 'something must be done' so Biden's saying, 'Look, we're doing something'. Frankly it's a rather sick joke.
The Dutch generation, who personally were about a month from dying by millions because of starvation, were saved by the air droppings by the allied forces close to the end of the war in what is now referred to as the "Hongerwinter", is almost completey gone. In my family now only one remains, who has experienced both the bombing of Rotterdam by the nazi regime and the hungerwinter. I'm disgusted of what's going on in Gaza, can't imagine what these Gaza images would have caused in reliving the trauma experienced. My dear aunt, who died 1.5 years ago was shot at as a 7 yo girl by German soldiers, while she and others were desperately looking for fuel and food.
We have in Rotterdam a monument to remember that life bringing Operation Manna and Chowhound. It's bloody disgusting we see the urgent need for such an operation today, while in fact an ally simply can give access to the starving people to us over the road.
Yeah, they just won't turn out at all. It's extremely unlikely they'll vote for DTH. They're aren't enough of them to make a difference anyway. It's not like in some places over here where 20% of the voters are Muslims. We just had the Rochdale byelection where that's the case and it was won by this guy.... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/01/george-galloway-wins-rochdale-byelection The official labour candidate had the whip withdrawn when he came out with some pretty moronic and uninformed conspiracy nonsense about Netanyahu, presumably in a rather pathetic attempt to gain support among Muslim voters. The only positive note was that the fascist party, Reform, was hammered and only came 6th, despite receiving probably ten times the coverage of the the LibDems immediately above them in the standings.
Compare the attitude of the German forces towards the allied forces about the food relief activities with what the idf/Israel is doing now:
They could strap the aid to the 2000 pound bombs they are shipping over, it would help with logistics. And it would deliver the aid directly to the people most affected.
The ongoing blaming of the Biden Admin for everything is odd to me. Israel is a grown up country and an army in occupation. Biden does not have boots on the ground and is not some all powerful figure who can deliver on wish casting. There is one country that has the security presence that could ensure humanitarian aid is delivered. It's not the US.
Nevertheless the blame for the deaths from starvation/diseases/bombs will fall on the onlooking western allies of the army in control too. And rightfully so. There's only one thing left for us instead of looking on/being bystanders and that's load landing crafts with food, water and medicines/medical equipment and hit the shores of Gaza with them. Back them up with warships with the message to the idf any harm to them inflicted by you is met with brutal force on you matching what you did to the Gaza population.
There is no version of an Israel state in that location that is acceptable to their neighbors in the long run. Not the 1948, not the pre 67, not the current one. Well maybe the version that is pushed to the sea. I believe in the long run this will still happen. cos the west can only delay a nuclear ME for so long at some point many countries in the axis will have Nuclear capabilities and more than one of them have stated that their number 1 desire is to eradicate the Jews. The only reason Israel survived this long is because they have the number 1 power in the world since WW2 backing it. Cleaning the Book zealot will not eradicate the other book zealot who believe Jews should be eliminated. There is no concession Israel can give that will satisfy their neighbors in the long run
It is inexcusable to give $3.5bn of military welfare a year to a country that is behaving as despicably as Israel is doing. That’s the basic equation for many.