Hamas Attacks, Israel Responds II

Yes, but do the Lebanese support the Lebanese claim to the Shebaa Farms?

 

Because hitting the shipping terminals removes Iran's oil from global markets, triggering oil price hikes and associated economic damage. Israel isn't exactly famous for its sensitivity to other states' opinions but it could do without the aggravation.

Hitting refineries doesn't remove its oil from global markets but it will remove petrol and diesel from the desperately shaky Iranian economy. The rest of the world will shrug its shoulders but the Iranian people will get very angry very soon and stay angry for a long time.

At the risk of cross-posting my own stuff . . .

 

As the diplomat's saying goes "if a candidate has real ability, somebody will veto his appointment"

 

Jewish joke time I see.
"They told me 'cheer up, things could be worse' so I took their advice. I cheered up and sure enough, things did get worse"

 

There is zero - repeat, zero - possibility of that girl being there without Hams intel finding out about it.
That they did nothing speaks volumes.

Another thing there is possibility of: none of the neighbours knowing about it.

That too speaks volumes, sadly.

 

What exactly should the neighbors have done? Report it to the authorities?

 

That was my point, or one of them.

Some/many/maybe even most of the neighbours were too cowed to do anything. And believe me, they had very good reason to be cowed.

But it's also true that if nobody did anything at all, it's because the wider society was willing to go along with it.

 

An Israeli joke:
Q: What do you call Israelis without the IDF?
A: Yezidis

 

According to Shaiel Ben Ephraim:

After being out of touch for a while, Sinwar is back to negotiating with the mediators. One question he has asked is if he will receive immunity during talks. The Hamas leader wants to avoid assassination.
Two things have brought Sinwar back into contact with the mediators. First, the threat of assassination. Second, Qatar has told him that unless he takes negotiations seriously, they will not find the rebuilding of Gaza and will freeze the Hamas bank accounts.
Qatar is trying to prove that it is a serious partner in talks. In addition, Israeli military pressure is taking its toll. All of this is creating a new opportunity for a hostage deal.
​

I'd add that Sinwar - a keen student of Israeli media - is undoubtedly aware of developments in Lebanon and that Hezbollah, which was never willing to do anything useful to assist him is now incapable of doing anything. A few days ago the Washington Post reported that Hamas had hoarded enough weapons and cash ($$$, €€€, shekels) to keep fighting for a year, assuming that international developments would turn the tide in their favour. That hope is vanishing now

As for immunity, I'd be sceptical. He's a fanatic but he's not stupid. Even if Israel would honour an immunity clause, his agreeing to it will guarantee that other Hamas guys kill him instead.

 

I’ve heard this exact same line of thought used against immigrant, minority, and especially African American communities.

I don’t see how this instance in any way paints a community of 2million people wholesale as implicit terrorists.

I will now go back to not entering this thread. No need to reply.

 

I will anyway. I've heard that "exact same line of thought used", by tenured historians, to explain how and why Hitler, Mussolini, Salazar and many others were able to function, as well as how the IRA was able to function in Ireland.

Being "willing to go along with" something does not make anyone "implicit terrorists". It just means that they see something and think "it's bad, but other things are more important". Or, to put it another way, "if I speak, plenty of people will say I'm a traitor. Nobody will say I'm not."

And since you brought up America's racial issues, wouldn't a near-century of Jim Crow, sundown towns, redlining, etc. suggest that American society was implicitly racist?

 

Lawrence Freedman, often described as the dean of British strategic studies, has an in teresting article in the New Statesman. It sums things up rather well IMO (emphasis added)

What started as limited action to support Hamas has now turned into a war of survival for Hezbollah. While the roots of its support remain firm in Lebanon’s Shi’ite community, it has been diminished by entering into a fight that it has lost. Nasrallah made a series of strategic misjudgements, including overestimating the extent to which international outrage over the humanitarian consequences of Israeli actions in Gaza would lead the Israeli government to back down.
If it had gone in with full force after the Hamas attacks on 7 October then Israel would have found it much harder to cope with a two-front war. Alternatively it could have held fire. As it was, it got stuck in the middle. It did not do enough to cause Israel real difficulty, yet gave it the rationale and the time to prepare once it had dealt with Hamas.
Israel has now grievously weakened Hezbollah, humiliated Iran, and as a consequence might have left Hamas even more isolated. But taking advantage of the moment will require knowing when to stop hammering targets inside Lebanon – along with some deft diplomacy. There is still no credible plan for the future of Gaza. Israel has long lacked a political strategy to go with its military strategy. This would be a good time to develop one.​

 

What do you make of this long gap since Iran attacked? Israel maybe rethinking its decision to strike back or simply waiting for the right time? And which would be better strategically, for Israel? Still seems most likely we’ll see some response so as not to appear weak…but in this fast changing environment, that missile attack seems like ages ago.

 

I imagine there's some division within the government about what category of targets to attack (nukes, oil terminals, missile factories, etc.) and the negotiations with the USA about that.

I have a suspicion that there might be a few dormant agents to activate and active agents (of Iranian nationality) to exfiltrate from Iran before the strikes.

There's also the possibility that they're waiting for several security VIPs to attend the same meeting in someplace like the IRGC HQ and then blow up, if not the building, then at least the room. That/s something I'd keep an eye on.

 

And don't underestimate Yom Kippur. It's the biggest of all BFDs in the Jewish calendar, the religion and the wider culture. Reportedly, there are no radio or television broadcasts, airports are shut down, there is no public transportation, and all shops and businesses are closed.

Even people who never go to synagogue or observe any religious injunctions observe the fast or at least stay at home with family.

 

Fox News talking about the Palestinians journalists that have been killed in Gaza

Palestinian journalists must be protected amid the war. pic.twitter.com/y34d0dYpnL

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) October 8, 2024

 

Well, well, well. The whereabouts of Esmail Qaani, the man who replaced Qassim Soleimani as commander of the Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force (a mix of the CIA and JSOC), has been much speculated on since he disappeared from view on the 3rd.

He's now reported to be alive but under interrogation as part of the IRGC's investigation of how Israel was able to locate and kill Hezbollah's senior leadership. There is some speculation that he's in hospital after suffering a heart attack, which is not at all uncommon among IRGC suspects.

Hezbollah are reportedly convinced that the security breach is "100 percent Iranian" and the Iranians seem to share that belief, particularly about Israeli moles among the IRGC personnel working in Lebanon. The focus is on those who were aware of the movements of Brig. General Abbas Nilforoushan, who was killed alongside Nasrallah.

 

Wrong thread

 

Accidentally clicked on this thread.

Your obfuscation is actually reinforcing my point: This stuff happens all the time, in just about every culture, at any time in history. The way the Palestinians are acting isn't a particular failing of Palestine or Islam. It is just human nature.

Trying to make the case that millions of Palestinians are somehow uniquely depraved or immoral strips them of their humanity and allows one to "other" them. Don't do that.


And here I point out again, Hamas is dumb and bad, and the org. and ideology need to be squashed; just not at the expense of millions of people and in a way that will only breed more sympathy for their demented ideology.