Hamas Attacks, Israel Responds II

I imagine Hezbollah holds all the power over the people of Lebanon. I doubt if there's much of an anti-Hezbollah voice in Lebanon capable of standing up against the militia and so those who don't want another war with Israel are silenced.

 

Hezbollah chief says Israel crossed 'all red lines' with attacks (bbc.com)

I'd quibble a little with this piece in that reports yesterday did say that Israel acknowledged that they (Mossad working with IDF) were behind the walkie-talkie/pager attacks.

"As Nasrallah spoke, Israeli warplanes caused sonic booms over Beirut, scaring an already-exhausted population, and others struck targets in southern Lebanon."

I feel bad for the Lebanese caught in the crossfire. This is about to get really bad for them, this guy Nasrallah is a worst-case scenario for Lebanon and its people.

 

There are still lines? That's bullshit. There are no lines in this conflict.

 

Oh yes there are..a bunch of entangled trip wires...

 

Wouldn't surprise me if they know roughly where Nasrallah's hiding and go after him directly. I hope so. There may be some value in dismantling their command structure completely so as to spare Lebanon the carnage and destruction of another full-scale campaign.

Yes, there's always the risk of Iran jumping in, but I don't think they want that in Tehran.

 

Pretty unlikely. The pagers and radios weren't made in Hungary and they didn't even enter the country. Groups that would target Hungarians in revenge a) mightn't because takfiris hate Shia apostates and b) don't need reasons to kill Europeans. Hezbollah have more urgent priorities and Iran will likely nix it anyway because of how desperately they need EU trade.

For complicity, try Occam's Razor. Host-country Intelligence services really, really hate being asked because knowledge means responsibility and this kind of operation brings an awful lot of it. For the "guest" agency, getting permission spends serious organizational and diplomatic capital (plus financial capital on Orban) while running OPSEC risks in a small, incestuous and very corrupt country where people talk. A lot. It's a seriously bad idea.

It was simpler and safer for Mossad to set up dime-a-dozen nameplate front companies in Budapest and Sofia specifically for this operation and have them spend a few years doing above-board middleman trading with regular clients to build up a "legend", possibly with a 3-4 shady clients for a minor underworld/grey market profile until Hezbollah/the IRGC show up.

The Hungarian and Bulgarian entities had just one intelligence purpose. Keeping the front up here was far easier than usual and Job 101 anyway. Suspicious intel agencies doing surveillance would have found little or nothing and dropped their investigation in 6-9 months.

 

That's one way of putting it . . .

Massive Israeli airstrikes hit Lebanon tonight.

IDF bombed between 50 and 70 targets in Lebanon in about 20 minutes. pic.twitter.com/teruT3d3Nx

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 19, 2024

 

For the same reason they're in Yemen and Syria.

So Teheran's mullahs can kill Juhoods with the bones of Lebanon's last soosmâr-khor (lizard-eater)

That's it.

 

Israel unleashes heavy strikes on Lebanon as US urges urgent diplomatic solution | Reuters

Hassan Nasrallah's speech on Hezbollah device explosions in Lebanon - Israel News - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Makes sense to go after Nasrallah now, just as he's standing there daring Israel to attack, with his communication ability degraded.

 

New Lebanese joke:
Q: Which American cartoons have been banned from TV?
A: The Road Runner
Q: Why?
A: Beep, beep!

 

IDF hits more than 100 loaded Hezbollah launchers in series of major Lebanon strikes | The Times of Israel

"...Defense Minister Yoav Gallant held a situational assessment on what he called “a new phase in the war.”

Gallant said that the IDF would continue strikes in Lebanon in order to fulfill the newly officialized war goal of returning displaced northern residents to their homes..."

Israeli fighter jets in the last several hours struck over 100 Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon that were primed for immediate attacks on Israel, the military says.

The IDF says that in total, the launchers included around 1,000 launch barrels.

The strikes began… pic.twitter.com/nHoxC7nRQs

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) September 19, 2024

Nasrallah might've bitten off more than he can chew, as the saying goes.

 

True, but that can cut both ways. Invading a country may be legitimate but just because something's legitimate does not mean it's wise.

Invading a country based on the idea of “inevitability” which is not quite evident is a mite too close to preventive war for comfort. Preventive wars are very rare but they tend to go badly for the initiator - think Pearl Harbour and Gulf War II.

And the history of using occupations or buffer zones to fend off militias suggests it's one of those things that starts well on PowerPoint and ends in badly in combat

 

BREAKING! WATCH Hassan Nasrallah's first reaction to the "pager attack" that struck thousands of Hezbollah fighters yesterday. pic.twitter.com/RbaN4W8rKu

— Canary Mission (@canarymission) September 18, 2024

 

Israel has complete control over the airspace, and plenty of precision munitions, and the advanced fighter jets to deliver them, on a dime. Does Lebanon have any air defense at all? They're all sitting ducks, IDF pilots can take out any target they want, with impunity. And, they have the Iron Dome and sophisticated defenses. Hezbollah can probably do some damage in Israel, even with these defenses, but Lebanon will pay dearly.

I think you're right (about the risk) but it's also compelling that 60,000 Israelis should be able to return home and live in peace.

Long term though, the buffer is probably insufficient (although I don't doubt their ability to create one), the situation with respect to the Palestinians, completely unresolved, and the status quo with Iran is more dangerous than ever, of course. These situations will continue to threaten Israels long term peace and security, and Israel won't be able to bomb its way to a lasting peace.

Ultimately there has to be a region wide diplomatic solution which includes Iran and its proxies. Completely unlikely in this phase, of course (maybe ever), but I don't think anyone should expect Israel to capitulate to Iran and so what other options do they have? It doesn't get easier for Israel the longer they wait.

 

Interesting idea that Israel can hit a dime. Is that capitulation that they've chosen to be sloppy in Gaza for the fun of it and if killing one or two guys means killing hundreds of civilians it's a ok?

 

Sloppy?

They used ChatGPT to identify targets in Gaza and then dropped 800 kg bombs on them whilst they were with their families. Around half the bombs used weren’t guided.

 

A lot of mourning in Syria these days. After all, Syria is where Hezbollah wrote the book on winning hearts and minds.

Not

'Ummah Ka Chumma'

The Sunni Syrian rebels are celebrating the blowing of Shia His-bullah testicles, by distributing sweets.#pagers #النصر_الشرطه_العراقي #جنوب_لبنان #Hezbollah #hezbollahpagers #Pager #Pagerblast #PagerExplosions #Mossad #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/brfTT4DyJ9

— Defence News Of INDIA (@DefenceNewsOfIN) September 18, 2024

 

Of course they do. It's "dig deeper, habibi".

Snarking aside Lebanon barely exists as a state so you can imagine the state of its army. They can handle drones and maybe helicopters, but not 5th Generation fighters. It'll cause the Israeli airforce as much difficulty as a suburban speed bump causes a Humvee.

Hezbollah have plenty of MANPADs of various vintages but its own air defence systems will be far less capable than Iran's and those don't cause many problems to anyone. I do know they have some Soviet SA-8s systems. The backbone of Armenia's tactical air defences in the 2020 war, my Azeri and Armenian friends say they were of nuisance value in combat, if that.

in any case, Hezbollah is not in business to protect Lebanon but to protect itself and its owners in Tehran. They will provide zero cover for anyone but themselves

 

Do I have to remind that the killing by the Christian falanx, aided(instigated?) by bibi of the shia people lead to the birth of Hezbollah in Lebanon?
So 40 years later we have a force in the ME that didnot exist 40 years ago and a powerful tool for the Iranian Shia for meddling in the ME and the Arab peninsula. And still people are in here glowing with joy about interreligious atrocities and ignore the consequences decades later.
If anything the saying "be careful for what you wish for" for those celebrating 42 years ago the Shatila Sabra atrocities should be a reminder to those who havenot learned it yet.

 

You don’t have to, but we know you will.

 

I myself am highly skeptical of the lines the US and Western Europe want to draw considering how they tied Ukraine hands. Indeed, Ukraine literally said that they would follow Israel's lead in crossing lines if it was crucial for their security.

 

I will restate the above slightly. I believe that the US and Western Europe drawing lines for themselves in response to their colonial past is fine. However, Israel never was Western Europe. They are primarily Middle Eastern and Eastern European.