Hamas Attacks, Israel Responds II

Next up: deadly faxes.

 

Why would the Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon be in possession of a Hezbollah issued pager?

 

They hacked into the pagers operators' database(s) to identify the pager numbers of their targets and sent signals that made the pager batteries overheat and explode. Despite urban myths, spontaneous battery combustion is rare but it does happen and it's not that difficult to create a current strong enough to cause what engineers call "thermal runaway" – a chain reaction that overheats the battery enough to ignite, then explode. The process just has to be fast enough that the fire lasts no more than 1-2 seconds.

Anything else is over-complicated and has serious OPSEC risks. Producing pagers with a hidden explosive charge to detonate on command but operate as normal in the interim isn't too difficult. However, explosives deteriorate and either won't work or may spontaneously detonate themselves. Meanwhile if one stops working as a pager, its explosives will likely be discovered at a repair shop.

There's also the problem of getting 1,000+ of these modified pagers to the 1,000+ target individuals - and nobody else. The OPSEC of hacking the pager companies' databases and operating systems to send sabotage commands to the devices of those specific individuals is far higher.

 

Today I learned that pagers were still a thing. Yesterday I thought they were the electronic version of buggy whips.

 

He moonlights as a doctor from the 90s early 2000s in his free time

I am sure people will buy pagers now to try to replicate what Israel did

If they made ordinary pagers go boom I will be highly impressed but I don't see it. There must be an explosive something anywhere. The batteries of pagers are too tiny to cause the damage they did.

But the thing is Israel will never admit to doing much less say how so .... here is hoping for yotubers testing the thing

 

Plenty of "if you have to use pagers for communications, maybe taking on Mossad isn't for you" snark doing the rounds, which is amusing. However, it's a very good idea in theory. Pagers are low-tech but reliable. So are couriers. That's why it took so long to get to Bin Laden, Deif, etc.

Unlike mobile phones, they work in locations that mobile phones usually don't, which is why Western emergency services and first responders were using them until the late 2010s and they don't emit traceable signals.

Someone in hiding or in a tunnel can be sent a simple "Commander X here: await call on the usual number at X:00 hours" or "launch attack at 07:30 instead of 19:30" without compromising his security.

The real concern for Hezbollah is that their OPSEC was incredibly sloppy or their command systems are deeply penetrated, probably by multiple moles. They'll have to find a secure alternative to pagers immediately (not at all easy) and the molehunt will a cause chaos and mistrust - not to mention a few deaths at HQ - for months to come.

The last part - PSYOPS - is likely to have been one of the points of the entire operation. Might even be the point.

 

They're the same thing.

 

Because he's part of the Hezbollah leadership.

 

While rescuing kittens from Haitian restaurants at weekends LOL

If something can be done in theory, it can usually be done in practice with enough time and $$.

I'm old enough to remember when intercepting and decoding faxes was considered exceptionally challenging for the NSA and GCHQ. The Israelis got there first. Reportedly, the NSA and GCHQ, then the CIA, MI5 and the DGSE were very grateful for the time and energy saved. No doubt favours were exchanged later.

The batteries are small, but they're surrounded by hardened plastic that will work well enough as a hand grenade casing at very close range. And you can't get much closer than a pager on someone's belt

 

Erm, 07.30 means half past seven in the morning: 19.30 means half past seven in the evening.

 

The footage being posted showing the victims of the attack is grisly, but heartwarming.

 

I don't think you should be giving them ideas . . .

 

They are. Then again, box cutters worked on 9/11.

Israel is a high-tech powerhouse, so using low-tech methods against it is asymmetric warfare 101. General Paul van Riper did that brilliantly as the Red Team commander in the Millennium Challenge 2002 wargame - which is why Rumsfeld canned him.

It's also why the first intifada worked and the second one failed.

 

This was a masterful PSYOPS blow but I'm not sure hitting the Iranian ambassador was necessary

Pearl-clutching aside, he's an ambassador and all that. Hitting ambassadors is a serious no-no historically. The Iranians aren't exactly famous for respecting the sanctity of embassies but is it going to be a distraction from the skill of the operation?

Maybe heating up the battery to ignite rather than detonate or sending him a message like "this pager will explode in 10 seconds. Move away. Now." on the pager would have had 90% of the impact.

Apparently Hezbollah sources are telling Reuters that this is the biggest security breach they've ever suffered. Keep the focus on that

 

New Israeli joke: the agent behind this attack is Motta Rolla.

— Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) September 17, 2024

Another joke:
most of the injuries are in the chest, pelvis and, of course, the groin area.
the 72 virgins won't necessary for many Hezbollahis. Many, many Hezbollahis.

 

I wonder if they knew which pager was assigned to which individual?

 

CNN reporting over 2800 injuries?!? Wow. That's quite shocking.

 

He used bikers with Faster than light travel and light ships with enough ammo to sink a destroyer (with weight not firepower)...

It is ok to bend the rules of war, but not the rules of physics on those wargames. That Millenium Challenge was a disaster not because the blue team lost, but because no one learnt anything from the exercise.

 

CNN now saying Hezbollah recently purchased the pagers according to their sources. The got played from the inside.

 

That's why I disagree with @waitforit It would be really, really hard to know which pager was supposed to go to which person. Finding each person's number is a lot simpler with many fewer risks and moving parts.

That said, he may be right. Maybe Hezbollah or the IRGC bought their pagers from one source and had them delivered in a few batches with the Mossad intercepting each batch and replacing them with booby-trapped devices. If that happened, I would not want to be their supplier or their purchasing manager.

Like I said, there's going to be an incredible amount of molehunting over the next few months and Middle Eastern molehunting is not a pretty sight. It's where Sinwar started out after all.


Edit

In which case one or two people will have left home in a major hurry this morning, along with their entire families and leaving everything behind.
.

 

It could be simpler than that. Mossad has a mole in Hezbollah who tells them that Hezbollah is looking to buy a large number of pagers. Mossad either buys an existing supplier of pagers, or sets up a front company. No need to intercept the shipments when you're the company actually providing the pagers.

But you're right, Hezbollah's logistics section is going to be in a lot of trouble.

 

Interesting perspective - this was a weapon designed for a full-scale invasion that should have been held in reserve.

Food for thought and just under 1 minute long

The attack in Lebanon on Hezbollah communications was a great success. But is it also a missed opportunity? pic.twitter.com/cJw8CTpraf

— Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) September 17, 2024

 

I think things went a little differently than that. A hell of a lot differently in fact