http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/21/player-ratings-us-vs-guatemala/ {A sampling ...} Goalkeeper Tim Howard One critical save in first 45 minutes; looked strong snatching some crossing balls. Rushed off line to make a huge save on dangerous Mario Rodriguez. In absolute command on the back line, growing into a team leader. Grade: 8 .... Landon Donovan Looked out of sorts in the first half out on the right flank; passes not made quickly enough, or simply bad balls. Not in the game first 45. Not much better in the second half. Grade: 3 .... Coach Bob Bradley Went with a veteran lineup to start the game. Two swift moves when first, Steve Cherundolo was ejected and then Eddie Lewis was forced from the game with an injury. United States snatched the lead minutes after Frankie Hejduk and DaMarcus Beasley entered the match. Then brought on a fresh Maurice Edu for the final 15 or so minutes. Three points on the road in Central America is not to be minimized. Grade 7
I will start at the 8 minute mark, cuz that's where ESPN2's coverage start, and I had to tape the game so I didn't record ESPN classic. 8:10 - Howard boots the ball upfield where Ching heads it with a defender on him. 50/50 ball which is par for the course. Distribution there is fine. 9:12 - Howard takes a goal kick. Long goal kicks are 50/50 about 95% of the time for any goalkeeper in the world. Distribution there is fine. 17:04 - Goal kick. Another 50/50 ball. No problem there. 17:21 - Howard plays a ball right at Donovan. Donovan lets his defender play a foot around him to touch the ball, but Donovan still gets it and passes it off. No problem on Howard's distribution there. 20:27 - Howard plays a short goal kick right to the feet of Pearce. No problem there. 22:33 - A low cross is played that Howard scoops up comfortably. At 22:46, the punt hits Ching's defender...so a 50/50 ball. No problem there. It was a punt when everyone had time to get back, not one of the fast break kind of punts. 25:06 - Tim boots the ball toward Donovan but overshoots him by 10 yards. Problem there yes. He didn't put a 60 yard ball on the dot, but he was aiming for Donovan. At least he wasn't wrecklessly booting it downfield to nobody (a la Keller vs. Czech Republic right before the first goal). Howard just missed his target. 27:38 - Howard saves a Ramirez shot comfortably. His ensuing punt is intended for Ching, and he misses Ching to the right by about 5 yards. However, the defender misplays the ball and has to clear it out for a throw in deep for the US. You can downgrade him there if you want...but again it was a long ball intended for someone that missed the target. At least he had a target. The result turned out good for the US anyway 29:39 - Howard snatches a cross from right in front of a Guat attacker. At 30:01, the ensuing ball he plays for Ching hits Ching in the head. Nobody supports Ching (Donovan and Dempsey could have) and the ball is lost. No problem for Howard there. 31:35 - Howard goal kick. 50/50 ball right at Dempsey who loses the header. Howard's distribution is fine there. 34:25 - The ball is played back to Howard by the US. Notice there are two Guat forwards eliminating all possibilities of Howard playing a short ball to his backline. So he has to play long again...at 34:34 he plays a long ball that is 50/50. Dempsey wins it and the header goes to Donovan. No distribution problem for Howard there. 35:57 - Boca plays a ball back for Howard since Boca is under pressure. Howard's clearance is from his weak foot and he knocks it out of bounds. Some problem, but it was a clearance more so than distribution and not a planned goal kick or long ball attempt. 36:09 - Howard makes a GREAT diving save to his right. He even pushes the ball wide, which is what any half decent goalkeeper does. A Guat player runs to the ball and sends a cross in, which Howard has already scrambled to his feet and catches the cross. At 36:15 he throws to Donovan to start a counter attack. Donovan ends up playing a horrible long ball. No problem on the distribution there for Howard. 39:00 - The questioned Pearce handball. Howard scoops it up, and plays a line drive punt to two US players. It is headed for Ching, but a Guat defender beats Ching to the ball then shanks the clearance, and the US goes on the attack but the US player fouls. Can't really fault Tim for trying to start an aggressive counter attack. I thought we wanted to see aggressive play here. Ching also could have come harder to the ball. I see this as a neutral play for Howard. 42:27 - Howard goal kick heads to two US players, one of which wins the header for another teammate. No problem there. 45+ - Howard clears cuz it's near the end of the half. It's just a clearance to end the half. No problem there. So in the first half...only ONE distribution that was problematic had a bad outcome. ONE additional clearance had a bad outcome. Two other distributions could be said that they were misplayed but had good outcomes. So out of 17 times he had to do something, 2 were clearances, 1 was a GREAT save, and 14 were distributions. 1 of 2 clearances were bad...which happened to come at his non-dominant foot. 3 of 14 distributions weren't on target (but all 14 at least had targets), with only one of those 3 having a bad outcome. 1 Great save Also snared 1 cross that was targeted for a wide open Guatemalan. You are grossly overstating it by saying he had a "horrible" "miserable" or "atrocious" first half distribution-wise. At worst, you could give him a 6 for the first half...his distribution was AVERAGE to ABOVE AVERAGE (not good or great), not horrible or atrocious or miserable. Distribution is important, but not as important as snagging each cross and making important saves that lead to SURE goals. Oh, his other great plays were at... 53:45 - slides out to beat Ruiz to a ball and smothers it. 54:38 - Outjumps a Guat to catch the ball. Promptly throws to 'Dolo's feet. 72:40 - Howard makes an AMAZING diving save. 76:30 - Howard reads a chipped through pass well and saves/blocks a shot/cross. To tie it all into the point of the thread... I don't see how you can give Howard worse than a 6. I'd give him a 7 for bailing the US's asses twice on great shots that were goalbound with diving saves, and once on that chipped through pass, reading it so well to prevent another possible/probable goal. Preventing SURE goals is MUCH more important than distribution...which only RARELY directly leads to a goal aginst your team. And his distribution was about average anyway.
You and I rate the decision to kick the ball long very differently. You are looking at the end result and apparently saying, "He kicked it in a player's general direction, it resulted in a 50/50, so he did well." That's surface level analysis. Here's how I am looking at it: - How many of those 50/50 balls did we actually retain? It wasn't anywhere close to 50%, so maybe we can disabuse ourselves of the 50/50 term now. - More importantly, was playing the ball long the best decision? Many of the work you've detailed shows exactly why many of his long balls weren't the best decisions. Even when Tim hits his mark, his mark can't hold onto the ball. Then I have to ask - why the hell play that ball in the first place? If it is on Bradley, fine. Bradley can man up, come to BigSoccer, and say, "I'm the moron who asks Tim to punt it long no matter what." Until then, we can only speculate. Going by what I do know, which is what I see on the field, Howard kicks it long far too often, resulting in the loss of US possession, and puts more pressure on our defense than is necessary. The plays he made? They were pretty good. The 72nd minute save you call out was the one play I thought was in the world class arena. The others are saves I'd expect a keeper to make. That doesn't mean Howard didn't do everything he needed to do. It just means Guatemala didn't challenge him that much. If it makes everyone happy, I'll give Howard a 5. If Bradley were to come out and say I tell Tim to punt each and every time, then I'd give Howard an 8 and Bradley a 1. I love Tim Howard and am thrilled with him as a keeper. He is an awesome shot stopper and tremendous athlete. I agree with others who say when his career is over he will be considered the best US keeper ever. BTW, great work. Even if we disagree, I always appreciate someone willing to put in the time and effort.
Et al... People are keying much too much on his distribution this game (when the punt up the field was definitely the game plan from where I'm sitting, though not my preferred gameplan), and totally ignoring his dominance in the box, which was the key factor. Yes, a few very good saves, and no rebounds given. Excellent, but we've almost come to expect that as if it were a given. But where Howard was once fairly shaky and unsure in commanding his box (he was always a great shot-stopper), he's now getting much stronger, much more sound positionally, much more confident in his split-second decisions. Not quite Peter Schmichael in his box dominance yet (the single best goalkeeper I've ever seen in this regard), but he did a pretty good Schmichael impersonation on Wednesday. Any ball that came anywhere within range of Howard belonged to the US on Wednesday. Attack over. That was a fairly dominating performance. Which is why I rated Howard's performance an 8. (The best rating I've given him was a 9 against Argentina.)
So Bradley makes two forced subs and gets a 7 for the game, despite playing a completely disjointed brand of soccer? I mean, I don't happen to hold NYT in high regard for other reasons but the Bradley grade is absurd. PS. To Howard's punts - if the ball had a required loft (The NFL teams always measure the time the ball spends in the air as a crucial statistic for punters and kickers) and was into the field of play, then his job is done. It's Donovan's, Dempsey's and Ching's job to get to the ball at that point and win the header. Even if a GK has a 15-yard error radius, a forward can cover that distance in about 2.5 seconds. With the punt being in the air for 3-3.5 seconds, the GK has done his job. If the header isn't contested, as you often see in MLS, it's on forwards, not on the GK.
All fair points and I appreciate the work and analysis you did too. I did point out there are times Howard HAD to play the long ball...as Guatemalan strikers and attacking mids were in position to put pressure on any short ball he played to the D-line or deep lying mids.
It was about 50% (a bit less). For some (not all) of the 50/50 balls on target, I pointed out the times where the US kept or lost the ball. Slightly in favor of Guat....not nowhere near 50% as you say. So my "surface level anaylsis" did show (some of the time) where we kept and lost 50/50 balls, which according to you was what was needed to not make it surface level analysis. And you can't slag on the goal kick 50/50s at all. I'd say 85% of all goal kicks, no matter what keeper you are in the world, result in 50/50s. Howard took 5 goal kicks in the first half. One was a short one, so 80% of his goal kicks were long (better than the 85% I guestimated). Of his 5 goal kicks, one was short to Pearce, the other 4 were 50/50s. One was a header and possession won, one was a header and possession lost, and two I didn't keep track of won or lost.
Exactly. And Howard did all that every time, so he did his job fine. There was one line drive punt, but it was to spring a counter attack, which the US won possession, then the ball carrier promptly fouled the Guat defender.
I'm not sure that maximum hang time is what we're after, but I admit it would be great to watch LD signalling for a fair catch as the ball came down.
BTW, now you see why Bradley favors Ching - he wants a 50/50 punt battler, even if the guy offers very little else.
I can't finish my charting right now, but I will. Hopefully I'll get passed along some numbers as well. Just to be clear on definitions, though, my understanding is that the big boys chart contested (50/50) balls like this: - Player wins possession AND makes a play (completed pass, dribble, etc) It's a lot like the reception rule in NFL. It isn't enough for the Wide Receiver to get their hands on the ball. They have to make a football play, or it isn't a reception. So if Brian Ching knocks down the header but gets immediately dispossessed, he didn't win that 50/50. If he successfully flicks a header to a teammate, knocks it down and successfully passes it away, or turns and shoots, etc, he did. Retaining possession is key. If the long ball resulted in Guatemala possession, it's not counted as a 50/50 win.
If a better play was to punt the ball to an unmarked player who would have walked the ball into the goal, but the keeper punted it to a guy covered by 5 guys, that poor decision is on the keeper. That's an extreme. Here's another example - keeper punts ball to tightly marked player who has no support close by, resulting in the loss of possession. Three other short pass options were available where the US would have retained possession. The loft on the ball is meaningless at that point. When I say surface level analysis, that's exactly what I am calling out. The decision to kick it to the isolated forward wasn't the best decision available.
If you run those numbers, I assume you'll only award to Guatemala the ones where their defender wins possession and makes a play. Under your methodology, all the others should be disregarded and you should only focus on those two groups: the ones we possess and make a play and the ones they possess and make a play. That should be a small subset of the total number of distributions by Howard.
No, I won't. Because I won't be putting Guatemala's numbers together. You, of course, are welcome to do that.
So if Tim punts ten balls, we win two, they win two and the rest bounce off a Guatemalan head and go out for US throw ins, then you would calculate a 20% possession rate for the US, correct? That seems like a misleading stat to me. Do you also intend to show the percentage of times that Tim had a better option, such as an open outside back to throw to? Otherwise, it seems like Tim is being downgraded for doing the only thing available to him.
Again, you are welcome to do all of those things. I will be keeping track of how many times Howard punted the ball long and the US retained possession. And I'm 100% certain I'll at least PM those numbers to giffenbone. Whether or not I'll share them with you? Unlikely. I absolutely detest the peanut gallery asking others to do their analysis for them.
Howard's distribution is not what is holding this team back and is a minor issue in the scheme of things. His passing and footskills especially are better than anything we've ever had. Sending the ball over the top every single restart is a horrible strategy but....generally the farther up the field and the more high pressure a defense applies the more sense it makes to use long balls, especially if you have a size advantage up top. Guatemala came out with a lot of intensity so I can see the reason for this in the beginning of the game. Once the field opened up though and with only 20 men on the pitch I would have like to see Howard play the ball to feet more as well as a more possession oriented approach from the entire team. We gave Guatemala too many unnecessary chances to get back into the game. Hopefully Howard's distribution and our direct play was a result of (bad) coaching instructions and not the team's intended strategy. Keep in mind that some of Timmy's poor clearances were with his left foot. Can you even imagine Kasey Keller trying to kick the ball to a specific teammate under pressure with his off leg?
My biggest complaint about your ratings is the fact that you are focusing WAY too much on distribution, a secondary job. Sure, not all of his saves were out of this world, but if he does his job on the easy ones, he should get a 6. Keepers misplay easy balls all the time, he didn't. And he made a few saves he really had to work for. Keeping a clean sheet should be much more important than setting up the attack. That's what the field players are for. I give Timmy a 7, and a bonus point for not decking Ruiz after the cheapshot (like I probably would have).
Dude, do your brothers and Dad knowing you are trashing a US player like this? Who the hell are you to bash this man representing the USA? This is the guy you suggests offers very little to his country . . . Brian was named MLS Comeback Player of the Year and to the league MLS Best XI for his efforts. In four years in MLS, Ching has scored 26 goals and added 12 assists in league play. Along with the rest of his Earthquakes teammates, Ching moved to Houston for the 2006 season. He scored four goals in Houston's first-ever game 2 April against Colorado, the seventh player in MLS history to score four goals in a single game. At MLS Cup 2006, Ching scored the tying goal in the 114th minute and scored what turned out to the be winning goal in the penalty kick shootout against New England Revolution. He was also named the Cup most valuable player. Ching's impressive September 30, 2006 bicycle kick versus DC United was voted MLS Goal of the year. Ching earned his first cap with the US national team on May 26, 2003 against Wales. After that, he was used by Bruce Arena regularly. Ching scored the equalizing goal in the 89th minute against Jamaica in a World Cup qualifier in Kingston on August 18, 2004, and followed that performance with another goal in the team's next match. On May 2, 2006, Ching was named to the U.S. men's squad for the 2006 FIFA World Cup in Germany. He scored a goal in a 2-0 US CONCACAF Gold Cup victory over Trinidad and Tobago on June 9, 2007. He drew a penalty in the box of the second half of the Gold Cup Final against Mexico. Landon Donovan converted the penalty, tying the game at one. The USA won 2-1 after Benny Feilhaber's game winner. Ching was called in to the USA side to face Barbados in the first round of CONCACAF World cup Qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, and he then scored two goals in the US team's largest victory ever, 8-0. Brian Ching, the Houston Dynamo star, has selected 11 local student athletes to help raise awareness about health and fitness and serve as ambassadors for the fight against childhood obesity. Why 11? That's the number of players on a soccer team, and 11 is Brian Ching's jersey number when he plays on the United States National Team. "This is a tremendous opportunity for me to give back to the community and to lead by example," says Brian. "The charity that works with THE CHING TEAM tackles issues that need to be addressed and I think child obesity is a dangerous issue. It's something we as adults need to inform and encourage kids to think about." THE CHING TEAM will kick off the 2007 Gifts with Heart Build-a-Thon on Saturday, November 10, at 10 am, at Lowe's in West Houston. For more details, log on to www.giftswithheart.org. Again, I ask, who exactly are you to trash this man?\
Dude...all that work and you totally forgot the part about him being the first Hawaiian to play for the NATS! unbelievable
Bad coaching instructions are the US intended strategy. Dude, it just dawned on me that you're like twelve. As to Tim's punts - it's not his job to win the headers. If Bob tells Ching to station himself 10 yards behind the midfield stripe and 20 yards in from the sideline, it's Tim job to get his punt within 15 yards of Brian. If the opponents defense then crowds that place on the field and the ball is continuously lost, that's on Bradley. It's only on Tim, if he misses that 15-yard circle.
I am not certain that you are in on the USA strategy talks. Perhaps, I have missed something if that is the case. With regard to retaining possession of the goalkeeper punts, there are several ways accomplish this, none of them easy. Typically, the defense has huge advantages in facing the ball and numerical superiority. It is a very high expectation indeed to make an issue of the goalkeeper's team retain possession on his punts. Reducing Brian Ching to be someone who was put in to chase punts, hmmmm. I suspect he has proven himself to be a bit more than that. I am very pleased with Tim Howard and believe he brings a lot of tools to the USA team. If there is one concern which may have been mentioned it is the quality of his distribution including the distance on his punts. IF you watch Friedel, carefully you may observe the distinction. I am older than 12, actually once coached a US goalkeeper who played in the EPL and represented the USA team many times. I was trained originally as a goalkeeper myself and have spent a week on three different occasions with three former US National team coaches working toward coaching licenses. BTW each of them was born in Europe and each of them looked forward to the day when the US born coaches would begin arriving. One of them is dead now, but I am fairly certain the other two enjoyed our victory, Wednesday, despite some concerns that should be addressed. Here is my point, there is a lot of bashing that goes on here, just for the sake of bashing. Certainly, Brian Ching, has some drawbacks, as every forward with a USA passport does, but he does not deserve to be reduced to someone who received a starting nod strictly to chase Tim Howard's punts. He has scored some significant goals for the US including one which tied Jamaica in the 89th minute of a qualifying match. He has also scored against Guatemala. As a coach, it is nice to have players in the mix who do the right thing in matches previewed as a street fight. He has great soccer instincts, whether lurking about in the box or chasing a punt. IMHO, his abilities were an appropriate match for the previews of this game and what we observed Wednesday evening. It was an experienced, seasoned group that was chosen to go to Guatemala. This does not mean that no other US players will get chances or no other tactics playing to the strength of the lineups will be utilized as is so regularly suggested here. It is two years before we, hopefully, head to South Africa. Wednesday night was a great start. More will be revealed. The tactics of the game, player selection, quality of play by the team and individuals can be picked apart. Most would agree, it is a difficult place to play. It was a good result in a messy match. And again, I saw some concerns but retaining possession on the goalkeeprers punts was not one of the major ones.
Dude, have you not watched a single game the US has played over the last two years? How difficult is it to pick every little tactical gem from Bob Bradley and his "braintrust"? Well, duh. I didn't say it was a great approach. I just said that's what Bradley wants his GK's and defenders to do. Will you argue on that? The Dynamo scored 4 goals this week without him and Kei Kamara and Nate Jaqua both have higher scoring rates for Houston per minute played than Brian. Is deserving of the starting US spot? Not a chance. And he can take his striking partner Clint Dempsey to the bench as well. PS. I am happy you're not 12 but you do have room for growth as a poster.