Group J's General Discussion Thread

Argentina: Definitely the most talented team in this group with players like L. Martinez, Alvarez, Fernandez, De Paul, Mac Allister, Messi, etc. All that to say, I have my doubts about Scaloni and the tactical flexibility of this team. Scaloni won World Cup, but it was the tightest run in World Cup history. In 2022, the team started well, but was often figured out later, and relied on brilliance and penalties for success. Multiple later qualification games had very questionable results. Scaloni also just said he’s not in charge and all decisions go through Messi. This team feels too predictable, lacks Plan B, and needs new ideas; especially with Messi way past his prime.

Algeria: This team has really been on the rise since Petkovic became coach. Mahrez is their star player, but they have other good players like Ait-Nouri, Bensebaini, Maza, and a few others. But the strength of this team is Petkovic. Same coach that led Switzerland in Euro 2020.

Austria: This team has a lot of talent: Schlager, Alaba, Sabitzer, Laimer, Chukweuemeka, etc. Ragnick is also one of the most elite coaches in this whole world cup and has done wonders with this team. While not as talented as the favorites, this is definitely a Top 10-13 team in this tournament. Shame about Baumgartner’s injury though.

Jordan: Not to be underestimated, and has an organized defense, but overall pretty weak team compared to the other 3 in this group.

I’m telling you, this group is going to be chaotic, and I sense a lot of upsets and surprises here. I feel like Scaloni’s Argentina has been figured out and are too predictable. Argentina historically tends to start slow in world cups, and their first 2 games are against teams that are on the rise and well coached.

Despite the talent, I expect Argentina will disappoint on the field; and Austria and Algeria will capitalize with good coaching, tactics, and mental strength. I fancy Austria to win this group due to slightly superior all around and Algeria second. Argentina third but might still advance, Jordan last. Historically, World Cups have usually had 2 powerhouses finish below 2nd in their group, and I’m afraid Argentina is one of them this time.

Final Standings:
1. Austria
2. Algeria
3. Argentina
4. Jordan

 

He did NOT say this. The english speaking press made it up. Scaloni himself in press conference adressed this misquote yesterday.

 

wait really? Oh my gosh

 

The media makes things up?

Shocking.

 

not shocking, but I just didn’t catch this. I stand corrected on that phrase, but it doesn’t change my overall predictions.

 

I do, in a general sense.

As an example, Ivory Coast and Ghana had a golden generation that lasted from about 2005-2015 at the international level. How did they do at the AFCON?
2006: Ghana: Group Stage Ivory Coast: Runner Up
2008: Ghana: 3rd Place Ivory Coast: 4th Place
2010: Ghana: Runner Up Ivory Coast: Quarterfinalist
2012: Ghana: 4th Place Ivory Coast: Runner Up
2013: Ghana: 4th Place Ivory Coast: Quarterfinalist (Lost to Champion)
2015: Ghana: Runner Up Ivory Coast: Champion

You can see that their rise to international prominence was matched by their rise in AFCON's, making a combined 9 Semifinals or Finals in 6 tournaments, 5 for Ghana, 4 for Ivory Coast.

Cameroon made 6 similar runs to the SF's or better between 1990 and the present, mimicking their success since WC '90, 6 deep runs across 18 AFCON's, Nigeria's rise, that first left an imprint on the international level is also mirrored: '90, '92, '94 presaging their run at WC '94, followed by more successes in four consecutive Semifinal or better runs in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006 and an additional 5 out of the past 10 AFCON's including 1 title.

So you can see the success mirroring Cameroon and Nigeria's path, as well as Ghana and Ivory Coast. There are some weird exceptions here and there: Egypt have been the most successful AFCON team, and yet historically have been immensely unsuccessful at the WC level, often choking or snake bitten, take your pick, at the last hurdle of qualifying, the latest generation of studs finally broke that bittersweet record at WC '18 only for poor Salah to be deliberately injured in the CL just a month before that WC kicked off. Morocco has been the opposite, qualifying for the WC periodically, but incredibly unsuccessful at the AFCON level until the most recent, largely rigged for them version (in my view). Beyond that it mostly makes sense, you see that Algeria has been reasonably successful at the WC level since qualifying for the first time nearly 45 years ago, same in AFCON, Senegal has made 5 deep runs at the AFCON since beating France 24 years ago to kick off WC '02, not bad.

To me, it's mostly an unusual tournament because of how incredibly competitive it is. There are a ton of quality sides for AFCON, and hosting is clearly a huge asset, 10 hosts have been crowned champion if you include the robbery Morocco recently got away with. A bit more than 1/3 of the time the host wins it: as long as the host is a strong team for the region and not say, Equatorial Guinea or Gabon or Ethiopia etc, the hosts should do reasonably well, and this recent tournament was no different.

It depends upon whether you only view the champions as what matters. In my view, it's about making the semifinals, there, w/a little luck you can win it, and even if you don't, it's a damn fine tournament considering the quality of the competition. I think it's reasonably attached to success. Consider DR Congo, lost to history for decades, only making 1 deep run at the AFCON since the disastrous 1974 WC performance, they've now made runs to the semifinals twice in the past decade after doing it only once in the previous 40 years.

That's a lot of blabber, and I don't know it nearly as well as Vancity, but it's an area of interest for me because I love so many of the teams and their fans. It's a super interesting confederation. I have Algeria taking second, their a good solid team, in a good run of form, for anyone curious how they failed to make this a 4th WC in 4 tries since 2014, here's why


One of the craziest endings you'll ever see to such a consequential game in scale, it reminded me a lot of how the Croatia-Turkey Knockout match ended at Euro 2008.

Anyway, the key to me is that Algeria-Austria group stage finale. Yikes, how is Austria going to handle the miserable heat typical of mid summer in Kansas City? They're going to need some cold air flowing via the night or ouch. I'd give that to Algeria, for now anyway.

 

Argentina should win the group.

 

Predictions:

Argentina 2-2 Algeria

Austria 5-1 Jordan

 

Im thinking similar, though I think Jordan game will be a little closer.

 

It’s very possible. I just feel that if Argentina and Algeria end in a draw or Algeria win, Austria will want to boost their goal difference vs Jordan and fight really hard. Thats why I say a very high scoreline.

 

Jordan has been absolutely terrible every time they have played a non AFC rival, so I don’t expect much from them but still I see it more as Austria 3-1 or 2-1 than 5-1

 

As expected it looks like a home match for Argentina in K. C.

 

Gooool Algeria

 

2 offside goals

 

Offside. No goal.

 

I was really hoping that the Argentina referee favoritism from the last World Cup was going to stop. Apparently not.