The tournament is starting soon, and so I'm opening some group discussion threads. I decided to go with the same format as in the past for the Olympics: threads for each group during the group stage and then we'll do individual match threads in the knockout rounds. All times are local. 21 July 2021 17:00: China vs Brazil (Miyagi Stadium Rifu) 20:00: Zambia vs Netherlands (Miyagi Stadium, Rifu) 24 July 2021 17:00: China vs Zambia (Miyagi Stadium, Rifu) 20:00: Netherlands vs Brazil (Miyagi Stadium, Rifu) 27 July 2021 20:30: Netherlands vs China (Yokohama) 20:30: Brazil vs Zambia (Saitama)
I am not sure, they don't seem to rotate much their staring 11. They might end up knackered in the knock-out stage.
Well, Zambia is the youngest team at these Olympics, they're unexperienced and low-ranked, they basically skipped most of the friendly matches they had scheduled as preparation for the tournament and I expect them to finish last in this group. China could have been a decent opponent, but they decided to cut most of the veterans and, as strange as it can seem, it almost looks like they're working already for WWC 2023 (the idea that they're using one of the two major tournaments as just a stepping-stone can seem odd, but they actually look like they in the middle of a re-building). So, I guess Netherlands' only "real" opponent for the top of the group is Brazil. Well, despite Pia Sundhage being now at the helm, Brazilian teams have an history of underperfoming in big tournaments (also because of the fact that women's football is not much supported at home): Marta is old, Formiga is even older and I frankly can't see their stars measure up to the likes of Miedema or Martens (especially the Martens we've seen in the latest UEFA WCL final). It could be me, but frankly I see Netherlands winning this group hands down. You're right that they haven't much depth, and this problem could sting after the group-stage, but I guess they have anyway enough depth to top this group.
Wiegman will most definitely need to give her mids as much rest as possible. It always helps if you've got a 2-goallead at, say, the 65' mark! The Dutch have a right-back who is inexperienced at the international level and so it will be interesting to see how she performs in the group stage. The coaches were grooming young (20 years) Lynn Wilms for the job--she recently signed with Wolfsburg and certainly has the potential to be good eventually. But after starting Wilms in three or four friendlies, in which she seemed to perform as well as could be expected given her age and lack of experience (scored a goal against France), the coaches suddenly moved Folksmerta into the right-back spot in the last three friendlies leading to the Olympics. She is a bit older and sturdier of build than Wilms, but also very lacking in international experience. How she plays will be interesting to watch. That position has been a big question mark/worry since Van Lunteren quit international play after the WC--at age 27--to have a baby. She is still playing domestically--and if I'm Mark Parsons, the new Dutch coach, I'm trying hard to enlist her to rejoin the team for one more international campaign--the Euro championship--but am not getting my hopes up. Brazil could certainly be a tough opponent for the Dutch. After a few years when it really struggled, the team played well in the World Cup and is generally in substantially better form under Sundhage. They tied with Canada in what was their last friendly, I think, and of course are always talented.
To me, I'm looking at this group as weaker than than names suggest. For the reasons already mentioned. But, if the Dutch do get good rotation in (I expect it heavily v. Zambia), then they might be the strongest team to enter the knockout competition.
On paper, I would think the Netherlands have it easy in this group... except they've had very hot-and-cold form recently. They managed to absolutely pile on Australia and Norway, but then also dropped 0-1 matches against Spain and Italy. I'm not sure I would say Brazil has a history of underperforming.... They've only placed lower than 4th at the Olympics once in their entire history, including two back-to-back silver medals, and have been 6th or better in every major tournament from 1996 to 2012. Their only really iffy performances have been the past two World Cups, and even then their losses were to Australia (both tournaments) and going absolutely toe-to-toe with 2019 hosts France early in the knockouts.
To be fair to Spain, IMO, they are an under ranked team. And on their day, I think they could challenge anybody. Right now, I'm looking at them as having an outside shot at WC23. The Netherlands issue seems to be the lack of rotation/depth. They do have two of the best players in the world right now (Medima and Martens), but if either one is off the pitch, it is a very significant drop off. Everything being relative, obviously.
I've had a recent discussion about Spain in another thread, and while I agree they are well-positioned to go deep in some upcoming tournament, my thoughts have been they're a team that plays very well but (to date) has yet to really find that X factor to actually push them to a major victory. (My thought in the other thread was that Barca's UWCL victory might be a watershed for Spain's WNT as well, and I was somewhat betting on them for the EURO next year.) While the FIFA ratings are largely indistinguishable from ranks 6th to 13th, Spain have typically underperformed against their peers in that range. Only in the past year or two have they started to show some consistency in finding ways to win. So yes, to bring this back on-topic, while Spain are a pretty darn good team, I think their victory against Netherlands is (barely) more Netherlands' loss than it is Spain's win. And yeah, personnel rotation will be a big factor in the Netherlands' campaign.
I haven't checked the world rankings over the last, say, six years--but as I recall in the two/three years leading up to the last World Cup Brazil was pretty poor. That is the period I was referring to. They certainly got it together in the World Cup and, as you say, gave France all they can handle, so they will be a tough opponent for the Dutch. Given its massive population/talent pool and soccer-crazy culture, Brazil should always be great, but seldom achieve that level--and I hope that remains the case for a few weeks!
Spain is definitely on the come--getting better and better--but it's worth noting that two non-Spanish forwards--Martens and Graham-Hansen--played big roles in their CL success, and Oshoala had a good regular season as wel--scored 14 goals, I think. And that highlights the one area where Spain has been lacking---talented, speedy wingers. Lack pace up front has been something of a weakness. One cold say, certainly, that pace is not integral to the way they play, but it helps.
Yeah, that is very much what I was thinking when I said "on their day." They coming, but as @L'orange said, they lack the speed and go to striker in attack. But they really have the ball control and tactics down, and I think it helps tremendously that a good chunk of the players are Barca. And to keep this on topic, regarding the SPA/HOL (is that their designation?), it is my opinion that top teams can't let up against Spain, and whether or not it was on Netherlands to have lost the match or not, they have traditionally been a team that should have won. So whether Spain won or Netherlands lost, to me it shows the narrowing of the gap, which perhaps might mean that Netherlands are dipping a bit overall (relative to where they have been). Personally, I find that exciting. Not that Netherlands are dipping. I still find them to be among the best, and they should win the group. But it is exciting that if they are dipping, other teams have become good enough to be able to take advantage, which is an overall improvement. But, boy to I like to see Martens play.
As much as I've been gloating for Italy's win vs Netherlands from last month, I have to put this match into perspective, and it seems to me that the best way to do it is to blend the two posts above: @SiberianThunderT is correct that a loss vs Italy, i.e. a not top-10 ranked team, should be worrying to Netherlands, but @soccernutter is also correct in pointing out that Netherlands decidingly need the key-contribution from Miedema and Martens, that he rightfully tags as "two of the best players in the world right now". Well, in that match vs Italy Netherlands played without Miedema and without Martens. Although it's surely worrying for them that, without their two best players, Netherlands see a "significant drop off" (as @soccernutter puts it), to the point that they can even become a quite ordinary team, it's on the other hand true that, when they start their two powerhouses, they turn into a formidable team, that can match almost any top-10 team in the women's game. Or course, being so depending from just two players is a big problem, but, assuming that Netherlands will have Miedema and Martens available for the Olympic matches (except maybe resting one of them or both in the opening match vs Zambia), they should be able, in my opinion, to comfortably win their group, and the loss vs Italy is just a testament to how important these players are, but doesn't tell much about the expected performance of a team that's instead deploying them. Basically it's a tale of two teams, with or without Miedema and Martens.
China - Brazil Referee (UKR) MONZUL Kateryna Assistant Referee 1 (CZE) RATAJOVA Lucie Assistant Referee 2 (UKR) STRILETSKA Maryna 4th Official (FRA) FRAPPART Stephanie Video Assistant Referee (VAR) (ESP) CUADRA Guillermo Assistant VAR (AVAR) (FRA) MILLOT Benoit Zambia - Netherlands Referee (ARG) FORTUNATO Laura Assistant Referee 1 (ARG) de ALMEIDA Mariana Assistant Referee 2 (COL) BLANCO Mary 4th Official (SUI) STAUBLI Esther Video Assistant Referee (VAR) (ARG) VIGLIANO Mauro Assistant VAR (AVAR) (COL) GALLO Nicolas
Heel slecht nieuws. Sherida Spitse heeft maandag op de training een knieblessure opgelopen en mist hierdoor de Olympische Spelen. Heel veel sterkte Sherida! 🧡https://t.co/S3FIfLcZL8— OranjeLeeuwinnen (@oranjevrouwen) July 20, 2021 Spitse injuried her knee. She will not play in the Games.
Yeah, imo losing her is bigger deal than losing vd Donk or even Martens. NED thrives on set pieces, if 2nd choice fk taker won't rise to the challenge then NED goals outcome maybe cut in half.
Huge loss for the Netherlands and the tournament to lose Sherida Spitse to a knee injury. Projections based on FIFA (Elo-ish) Ratings: Netherlands (rating 2035) expected win pct (.924) over Zambia (using a provisional rating of 1600 rather than the official 1191) Brazil (1971) expected win pct (.635) over China (1875) Using estimated performance ratings since 1/1/2020: Brazil (performance rating 2010) only a very slight favorite (.539) over China (performance rating 1983)
Marta with the early lead for Brazil RAINHA! 👑 pic.twitter.com/nQ7z9tRvx1— Seleção Feminina de Futebol (@SelecaoFeminina) July 21, 2021 Debinha with the second goal after a goalkeeper error GOOOOOOOOOOL DAS #GuerreirasDoBrasil 🇧🇷Debinha amplia! Que jogo, amigas! Orgulho demais!🇧🇷 2x0 🇨🇳 | #BRAxCHN#GuerreirasDoBrasil #JogosOlímpicos pic.twitter.com/f53Wzw9wNA— Seleção Feminina de Futebol (@SelecaoFeminina) July 21, 2021
Solta a esquerda, Rainha! A esquerda nunca falha! 👑⚽️ Golaço, batida de primeira! Isso é Marta, é ela!🇧🇷 3x0 🇨🇳 | #BRAxCHN#GuerreirasDoBrasil #JogosOlímpicos pic.twitter.com/JpJgO1kuzM— Seleção Feminina de Futebol (@SelecaoFeminina) July 21, 2021 ⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️ @10andressaalves amplia de pênalti! É mais um! Goleada das #GuerreirasDoBrasil 🇧🇷🇧🇷 4x0 🇨🇳 | #BRAxCHN#GuerreirasDoBrasil #JogosOlímpicos pic.twitter.com/WoT7QpFFCc— Seleção Feminina de Futebol (@SelecaoFeminina) July 21, 2021
Brazil capitalized on two China errors early in the game but since then China was pressing for a goal. They hit the woodwork twice and were close to tie if not for Barabara who kept Brazil lead intact. 74' Brazil whithstood China atack though (with some luck) and scored 3rd. 76' again China hit the woodwork twice in quick succession China is seriously out of luck in a otherwise very good and entertaining match. 80' PK for Brazil after foul with no contact...? 81' 4-0 for Brazil
FIM DE JOGO! MARAVILHOSAS!Uma atuação histórica na estreia para a gente se abraçar de longe e dizer: Vamos juntar por mais! Valeu acordar, amanhã vai ser maior. A palavra é orgulho! São elas do país do futebol...🇧🇷 5x0 🇨🇳 | #BRAxCHN#GuerreirasDoBrasil #JogosOlímpicos pic.twitter.com/fVyxXZCGh4— Seleção Feminina de Futebol (@SelecaoFeminina) July 21, 2021
Since of course I can't watch all of the games at about the same time, I hope there will be decent official highlights (and that people will be so kind to post them here ).