Some might not agree, but If I had to choose I'd rather Turkey top the World Cup qualifying group ahead of Croatia than win against Croatia at the Euros.
I got odds of 8-1 on Turkiye winning the group. Seem a bit 'short' but they may surprise. Also: I got 66-1 on them reaching the final.
I think the first match will decide pretty much everything. If we can seal the 3 points, our chances of winning group are 50-50%. If we don't win the possibility of winning the group will be very small. Terim might play 4-6-0 vs Spain.