Gore not running?

Change that from a question mark to exclamation point. He will announce his withdrawal from '04 on 60 Minutes tonight.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/12/15/politics/main533080.shtml

In a sence, this is a good thing for the Democrats, as it now makes the race wide open and removes the power of incumbancy that Gore would still carry somewhat in the primaries. Gonna be an interesting race on the Democratic side.

Bill Q.

 

Wow, looks like Al's not as dumb as he acts. The handwriting was on the wall, there was no way he could win a general election. This opens the door for a John Kerry versus John Edwards race. The interesting aspect will be Al Sharpton, who could siphon huge blocks of black voters from Kerry since they tend to be more liberal. I'd have to make Edwards the odds-on favorite at this point but I'd love to see Hitlery jump into the race.

 

I'm surprised. Gore was gaining buzz in Democratic circles over the last couple of weeks for having been in the forefront of the Lott debacle and for generally looking like an appealing human being rather than a focus-group report.

I was not at all sure that his running would be a bad idea--for all intents and purposes, he won the last election, and 2004 probably will be won or lost by Bush's performance in office, not by the strength or weakness of the Democratic candidate.

Here's your run-down:

John Kerry (Senator-MA): Strengths: Liberal (in the mainstream of Dem primary voters) with a lot of money (both his own and his wife's). Vietnam hero with a strong-foriegn policy portfolio. Weaknesses: Considered something of a stiff. There's a stigma attached to Mass. liberals since at least Mike Dukakis.

Tom Daschle (Senator-SD): Strengths: Legislative leader. Liked by Dems for engineering the Jeffords party switch and a couple of key Senate wins in the last election cycle. Weaknesses: More of a technocrat than an inspirational leader. Comes from a teeny-tiny state.

Howard Dean (Ex-Governor-VT): Strengths: The #1 choice of the pundits. Smart, good one-on-one interviewee. Interesting mix of policy positions. The choice of anti-war Dems. Strong support in the gay community after signing civil-union bill. Weaknesses: Relatively unknown, does not have a strong fund-raising network. No traction among minorities. Comes from a teeny-tiny state the Democrats are unlikely to lose.

Dick Gephardt (Congressman-MO): Strengths: Solid choice of organized labor. Comes from a crucial swing state. Weaknesses: Already lost once. Kind of boring. The House typically doesn't produce Presidents.

John Edwards (Senator-NC): Strengths: Good speaker, attractive, new, ambitious, centrist. Comes from a valuable state. Weaknesses: Seen as a bit of a climber with little in the way of great ideas so far. NC is unlikely to vote Democratic even if a favorite son is running. Weak initial polling numbers.

Joe Lieberman (Senator-CT): Strengths: Moderate-to-conservative voting record may be a strength in the general election. Strong support in the Jewish community. Squeaky-clean image. Weaknesses: Kind of boring, unpopular among the left-wing. Being Jewish might be a handicap, but most voters who wouldn't vote for him because of that aren't voting Democratic anyway.

Wesley Clark (AR): Strenghts: Retired general from a winnable swing state. Undeniable defense/foriegn policy knowledge. Just generally a smart guy. Popular among centrists and internationalist liberals. Weaknesses: Unknown positions on domestic stuff. Not a traditional candidate. Not a household name. Loathed by far-right-wingers (no great loss) and hard-core anti-war leftists (a loss, but they'll deal or vote Green).

Gray Davis (Governor-CA): Strengths: Huge state, good fundraiser. Weaknesses: Massively unpopular, even in CA. (Would have lost in November if the Republicans had run a candidate who was politically moderate or minimally competent.) Uninspiring personally. If there's even a chance of the Democrats losing CA, the election's over anyway.

Gary Hart (Ex-Senator, CO): Strengths: Cogent critic of pre-9/11 security situation, post 9/11 White House policy. Generally considered to be a smart guy with interesting ideas. Has run well in the past. Weaknesses: Nationally publicized "youthful indiscretion" led him to drop out of '88 race. Has been considered a bit weasely in the past.

Hillary Rodham Clinton (Senator-NY) Strengths: Magic name, huge base. Universal health care starting to seem like a good idea again. Weaknesses: Strong negatives, mostly but not exclusively among right-wing loons. Needs to shore up her base in the NY Senate seat before making any bigger moves. Probably not running, anyway.

Al Sharpton (NY) Strengths: Strong base in NY black community. Weaknesses: Is a crook. Hasn't got a prayer with anyone else. Will be lucky to do as well as Gary Bauer in 2000.

 

I would hope that maybe, just maybe, that Bill Bradley decides to make another run. I know that he had said that he would not stand for office again, but he made a lot of contacts in his first run and he showed he could do well in the early primaries to give himeslf a head of steam.

When I checked his website tonight, it said i was under construction. Wonder if he is mulling it over?

Gonna be an interesting primary campaign no matter what.

Bill

 

Oh, well. He won last time, he deserved to be President, he certainly would be better than the current occupant. Whoever does get the nomination better flipping win.

 

And if he doesn't? Do the words Hari Kari mean anything to you?

 

Or "Bon Voyage" ala Alec Baldwin.

Actually, you should probably add John McCain to the list of possible Democratic candidate hopefuls.

 

That's spelled "hara kiri" for the intellectually challenged.

Harry Caray was the long time announcer for the Cubs.

 

Bush will win the next election, he'll just play the nationalist card, and have his brother to rely on if it goes down to Florida like last time. Never mis-underestimate the power of the stars and stripes.

 

The first thing the Dems have done right in about 4 years.

I stood and clapped when he announced it. Did anyone see that when pressed as to the reasons he made it clear that there were some in his party that didn't want him to run?

My respect for the Dems is on the upswing.

 

Damn. Guess I'll just have to cheerlead for Kerry now.

 

If you had to listen to one of his broadcasts late in his career, it really has the same effect.

 

We used to flip on Cubs games at random times and take bets on what inning it was in based on how drunk Harry sounded.

 

I believe that's the republican domestic platform, no?

 

This may sound stupid, but I can bet many Americans agree that Kerry doesn't have that "Presidential look". When he smiles he looks like Bill Walton. His voice is decent enough, but Taxachucetts and a national economy never seemed a good fit and for Kerry to 'continue to fight for where the nation should be headed and the common guy' while age old stereotypes will hurt him.

Then again, anyone remember some old CNN report where they speculated on Abe Lincoln's voice and put forth in some sort of computer analysis to ask the question "who had the voice of a President?"

Well, Al Gore was selected the winner! True.

That Dean guy from Vermont (correct?) has been getting the best reviews but always with the disclaimer that he probably won't make it or is not known well.

 

http://www.politics1.com/p2004.htm

Here's a link of some possible canadites.

 

As the Official BigSoccer Howard Dean Cheerleader, please don't automatically dimiss him because he currently doesn't have a national exposure and millions in the bank.

He has a chance. It is more than a year till the Iowa and NH primaries and he is already getting 6% in the polls. In December 1990, nobody outside the DLC and Little Rock knew who Clinton was. So, it is not unbelievable that Dean could be successful.

If you agree with his politics, support him. Don't dismiss him simply because he isn't currently well known.

I spoke to someone working on his campaign this weekend who said that Dean has fundraisers set up in 48 states. He's getting a lot of good press and the momentum is building.

If you want to know more about him or his record, check out his website Fund For a Healthy America.



Murf

 

He's the new Paul Tsongas!

 

Are you saying Herman Munster could never be elected President?

 

Dems do have a history of one darkhorse emerging to take on the "establishment" candidate, so Dean has a chance in their primary. Especially now that Gore is gone the door is wide open. It will be refreshing to have a physician running for the office, bringing a different point of view than the tiresome lawyerly types that usually run. However, he's a deal killer with national health care and pro-gay marriage. That stuff ain't flying in most of the country.

 

Just to clarify the history of the VT civil unions law, it wasn't a part of Dean's platform leading up to the law. He wasn't for it or against it. It just wasn't a campaign issue.

But then the VT Supreme Court ruled that the partner of a gay person was entitled to state benefits that were allowed to hetero spouses. This ruling forced the VT legislature to develop some sort of law that complied with the ruling. Dean then signed the law.

Dean is supportive of gay and civil rights in general but it isn't something that he is looking to push upon states from the federal level. It will be similar to his position on guns. He's pro-guns but he thinks it should be a state decision.

Murf

 

The state troopers along with everyone else is upset with the budget cuts. The tax revenue has fallen recently which is leading to $40M deficit for VT. So Dean (and now Douglas, the new Republican Governor) have had to make a lot of cuts. To both of their credit, they are cutting a little of everything which is leading to everyone being angry at them. When it comes to budgets, if everyone is equally angry with you, it usually means that the cuts were fair.

Regarding the troopers specifically, they are upset that they have 25 open trooper positions which they can't fill because they don't have the money to pay them. But the issue gets more heated with the troopers because they have had to provide security for Dean while he's been campaigning in Iowa and NH over the last year. So, they feel they are getting shafted because their budget was cut but they were asked to make more trips around the country than they had in the past.

Ultimately, it is small potatoes. Dean's security costs have risen from $30K to $70K; a whopping $40K! It is mainly more of a sore point than a significant budget issue. Douglas has promised $135K to train 5 new troopers but he's also proposing a higher tax on the highest income brackets to pay for it. Dean never raised taxes during his 11 years in office.

Murf