Going to North America '26: tickets, accommodations, etc. (non-politics)

Here in Guadalajara people are playing mind masturbation games thinking 10,000 hot swedish/norwegian chicks will come lol. I keep telling my friends that most countries will MAYBE have 3-4k travelling fans, especially here since we're not going to get any of the group headers other than Mexico.

 

So I'm just now registering for the draw and FIFA is charging my card 20 MXN per entry lol, now I'm not really sure about entering 100 times, I'm pretty sure it's refundable but still, anyone know if Wise get's that charge as well?

 

Also, the Visa rules in spanish says it's limited to one per household, doesn't really mention it's once per card so I assume if there's a filter to remove duplicates it'll be on the address line.

 

Yeah, just make up addresses.

 

I think it’s a soft charge. Not really being processed. Just shows pending and doesn’t hit the balance.

 

It does get charged but I'm 99.9% sure it'll just get reimbursed in 2-3 days

 

Yup, exactly what I'm doing, phone number as well just in case

 

FIFA had to say tickets prices will start at $60 and we know the only place where you'll be able to get them... Guadalajara !

 

I guess FIFA doesn't trust Mexican banks I have not seen any charge, even pending, on any of my credit and debit cards (US)

 

Do we need to enter real phone numbers?

 

I'm using wise. No charge, only a verification to check if the card is valid, but no charge.

 

...and 1.4 million of those applications were from people on this forum submitting multiple applications

 

I'm just trying to put on a FIFA hat for a moment. If the number of applications are clearly excessive, indicating that the policies of 1 account per household are not being respected on mass, I think it is quite possible they could conduct a search and sort on visa card numbers or addresses (or a more sophisticated combination) and flag fragrant abusers. But that won't happen until AFTER the window closes. So we will just have to wait and see. I won't be surprised either way...

 

I suspect @marianelah is working on that already

 

My FIFA hat says they want excessive applications. The media presser bragged about the 1.4 million in 24 hours, They want the number as high as possible.

 

My info is only anecdotal, but I am being flooded by contacts from Europe, Middle East and Far East who are keen to visit Canada and catch a few WC matches. "I've always wanted to visit Canada and am wondering whether WC tickets will be available?" I have a feeling that tickets to Toronto and Vancouver matches will be in very high demand, especially if they catch some more interesting teams (like Korea or Japan for Asians, or KSA, Turkey etc. for ME, or the larger UEFA teams). The stadiums are not large as well, which makes supply lower. Again, it may only be anecdotal and selection bias as I am Canadian, but everyone I talk to are expressing more interest in Canada and Mexico than the US (with the exception of Miami for whatever reason)

 

Could be. There's opposing forces: media hype as you state vs true indications of demand. Keep in mind they don't want to have their ticket windows flooded with applicants who are not buying while many genuine fans couldn't win the lottery.

Just to play devil's advocate: FIFA does not want the busy body US media releasing stories that average Americans can't find a way to buy tickets because FIFA's incompetent ticketing system is being dominated by gamers, bots and touts. I do think there a fine line for them to walk. This is a very different situation than Russia and Qatar in my opinion...

Anyway, this can play out in many ways and we'll all know within a month what FIFA's core OM will be. The one thing we know is they want to keep the hyp very high...

 

And this will be FIFA's concern. I am confident FIFA will run algorithms to gauge the level of duplicate submissions. But that doesn't mean they will act on the info collected. They assess and allow what they think is in their best interest. Folks here often believe they are lazy. I believe they are cunning...

 

My opinion is yes Europeans don't travel for Football, but they do travel to align with their travel interests. So most weren't excited about visiting Qatar. But if they decide they're keen on a visit to Canada or the US or Mexico, they WILL travel to coincide with a few WC matches. To Europeans, it's more about the destination than the football. To Latin Americans, it's more about the football and the cost, not the destination. Anyone agree?

 

THAT is SO FUNNY! For me, I'm thinking of getting Guadalajara tickets for the hot Mexican women and tasty tequila

 

I believe they're greedy and overconfident. Their overconfidence was shown during CWC. They overpriced matches and ended up giving away tickets and even selling semi finals for $11.

 

This is what I believe too. Also they know they have some dud matches. They will want as many tickets sold to those matches before the draw. It is in their best interest to do that.

They said that there is 1,000,000 tickets for this stage, but it won't be 10,000 tickets per game. It will probably be a lot less for later knockout matches. I still stand that FIFA will offer more tickets to the matchups they believe will be less desirable, i.e. non-seeded team matchups that only they currently know. Get the tickets sold to those potentially bad matchups pre-draw. C1 vs C2 in NY may only have 5,000 tickets available this stage but C3 vs C4 in Boston may have a whopping 15,000 tickets for this stage.

I mean, really how many unseeded vs unseeded matchups are there that would cause FIFA to 'lose' by overselling it pre-draw? Sure, any Central American team that qualifies will be a great draw to the fans, but poor for the neutrals which may even it out. There's the hypothetical Colombia vs Italy type of matchup that would be insane but FIFA will take the L on that to get the Tunisia vs Jordan matchup in Kansas City 75% sold pre-draw.

Numbers time:
We are on pace for between 5 and 7 million applications this stage. Conversely, each 'winning' time slot will purchase between 10 and 20 tickets each on average depending how you feel. With those numbers, you will have between a 0.7% and 2% chance of having an application being given a time slot that allows you to buy tickets.

That means if you are a multi account creator, you need to make between 50 and 140 to have 'winning' time slot depending on how you believe the numbers.

That is just the odds of having a time slot that allows you to buy something, not necessarily what you want. Mexico tickets probably will be snatched up in the top 0.1% of applications if 10,000 are made available. Need 1,000 accounts to get Mexico lol.

 

That's not quite how probability works. If each application has a 2% chance of success, then submitting 50 apps doesn't give you a 100% chance of success. It's actually about 64%. The math is: success = 1 - (failure chance)^^number of apps. E.g., 0.98 to the 50th power is .364, so success is 0.636 or about 64%. To be reasonable certain (95% sure) of success, you'd have to submit 149 apps.

In any case, 20 or 30 apps is better than one (assuming FIFA doesn't filter 'duplicates'). And as you said, getting a time slot doesn't mean you'll get the games you want.

 

well, damn. You know what you are talking about as that is some math that I don't like... You'd need 425 apps to get a 95% rate at the 0.7% rate....

 

Of course. Lets assume there is 500,000 french in the US at 3 hours train distance from a stadium in the US. Not more than 1,000 would travel in my opinion. For comparison:
60 millions french live at 3-4 hours train (or 1 hour flight) distance from munich. They didnt even fill 10,000 seats for their semi final against spain..