Goalscoring Race Analysis

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by Bryan Gividen, Oct 7, 2003.

  1. Bryan Gividen

    Bryan Gividen New Member

    Mar 8, 2003
    Provo, UT (BYU)
    Alright, while being bored and not doing my Accoutning homework, I decided I'd look at the scoring race. Now, excuse my ignorance, but I don't care about the Budweiser scoring champion, I care about the Golden Boot.

    Right now, it seems like Twellman and Ruiz are the two who are in it again. Ruiz won it last year with 24 goals and Twellman came in just behind him with 23. (And then assists made Twellman the drunk scoring king.)

    I remembered hearing no player has ever gotten back to back 20 goal seasons. (Its true!) But, did you know that there has never been back to back seasons with 20 goals scored? Since league inception, no two consecutive years have seen any two different players score 20 goals. With 3 games left, it looks near impossible for Twellman or Ruiz to do it too. A hat trick from either would make the feat feasible.

    Both players have three more games.

    v. DC United
    @. MetroStars
    v. MetroStars

    DC has given up 3 goals in 2 games to New England this year, two of which came from Twellman in the same game (when they lost, 4-2 after DC rallied back with an amazing comeback.) Also note that DC gives up more than twice as many goals on the road then they do at home (21 compared to 10.) A double like the one he had previously in the year, would make the scoring title look his.

    The MetroStars have given up 5 goals in 2 games to New England, one of which was scored by Twellman. (At home.) Their goals against record is nearly identical (16 given at home, 17 away). Things aren't looking too good for Twellman in this respect. If Twellman hits 20 goals, I expect it to be with 2 goals against DC United, 2 goals at home against the Mets, and 1 goal away against the Mets.

    @. Kansas City
    v. San Jose
    @. San Jose

    Alright, things look impossible for Ruiz. He has to average 2 goals a game for the remaining three games to hit 20. He is playing against the KC Wizards who have the second to worse defensive record this year (42 goals allowed, beat out only by New Englands 44 goals allowed). He would DEFINITELY need a hat trick in this game to even consider getting back to back 20 goal seasons because then he is going up against the best defense this year who is fighting to hold onto the Community Shield. San Jose has allowed 31 goals this season.

    LA has played against San Jose twice and scored one goal (which was scored by Sash Victorine). In the two meetings, Ruiz has been allowed 8 shots all together, 4 of which have been on goal. Things look very dim in this area. Against Kansas City, LA has scored 4 goals in 3 games, two of which were scored by Ruiz, one of which was a penalty kick.

    Analysis: Ruiz is screwed.

    Neither player looks like they have the slightest chance of hitting 20 goals this season, but if the planets are in alignment for Twellman against DC United, I could see Twellman being the first back to back 20 goal scorer.

    And thus ends my post which I spent too much time on.
  2. Bryan Gividen

    Bryan Gividen New Member

    Mar 8, 2003
    Provo, UT (BYU)
    Oh, and I DEFINITELY think that Twellman takes home the Golden Boot this year and I'm gonna go out on a ledge and say he steals the Budweiser Title from Preki in the last game, with less than 20 minutes to go, making him the first back to back Budweiser King and the only player to have won the title twice. (Of course, Clint Mathis will always be the TRUE Budweiser King.)
  3. Matt in the Hat

    Matt in the Hat Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 21, 2002
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They are not called the Mets
  4. vicdena03

    vicdena03 New Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Well I think Carlos could win it again, because Twellman is out for the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his left foot. So come on Ruiz this is your chance.
  5. StillKickin

    StillKickin Member+

    Austin FC
    Dec 17, 2002
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Somebody else please step up!
  6. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Razov: 12 goals through Oct. 9

    vs. Columbus 3 goals
    vs. Colorado 2 goals
    at. Columbus 2 goals

    So Razov will finish with 19 goals and win the Golden Boot award this year.
  7. Bryan Gividen

    Bryan Gividen New Member

    Mar 8, 2003
    Provo, UT (BYU)
    Yeah, yeah... all my predictions... DOWN THE HOLE!

    Friggin stress fracture.... I'm gonna have a stress fracture.... mumblegrumble....

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