Goals and Points Percentages, Differentials, and Relationships Between Them

Discussion in 'Statistics and Analysis' started by EvanJ, Dec 20, 2008.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here is some information for recently completed seasons for leagues with exactly 12, 16, or 20 teams. The point percentage for a quartile equals the total points obtained by the teams in that quartile divided by the total points obtained in that league. The same goes from goals scored percentage and goals allowed percentage. RSSSF is my source.

    1. Costa Rica 2007-2008 combined table for two seasons (the country has two seasons per year):

    Teams: 12
    Schedule: Unbalanced
    Point Percentages by quartile (1-3, 4-6, 7-9, and 10-12): 32.6% from top quartile, 25.6% from second quarter, 22.7% from third quartile, and 19.2% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 28.1% from top quartile, 25.8% from second quartile, 24.0% from third quartile, and 22.1% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 18.0% from top quartile, 25.8% from second quartile, 27.3% from third quartile, and 28.9% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.898 (correlation ranges from -1 to 1 and this is a strong positive correlation)

    2. Czech Republic's Gambrinus Liga 2007-2008:

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 34.8% from top quartile, 27.1% from second quartile, 22.1% from third quartile, and 16.1% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 34.5% from top quartile, 25.2% from second quartile, 20.0% from third quartile, and 20.3% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 19.8% from top quartile, 22.5% from second quartile, 25.7% from third quartile, and 32.0% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.967

    3. English Premier League 2007-2008:

    Teams: 20
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point percentages by quartile: 38.1% from top quartile, 26.8% from second quartile, 20.2% from third quartile, and 14.9% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 34.0% from top quartile, 25.5% from second quartile, 22.4% from third quartile, and 18.1% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 14.0% from top quartile, 24.2% from second quartile, 28.8% from third quartile, and 33.0% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.974

    I may do more later.
     
  2. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Egypt 2007-2008:

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 35.1% from top quartile, 28.0% from second quartile, 20.1% from third quartile, and 16.7% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 29.8% from top quartile, 30.5% from second quartile, 21.7% from third quartile, and 18.0% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 17.5% from top quartile, 23.2% from second quartile, 25.8% from third quartile, and 33.4% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.931

    Uruguay 2007-2008 combined table for two seasons (the country has two seasons per year):

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 35.2% from top quartile, 26.9% from second quartile, 21.3% from third quartile, and 16.6% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 37.1% from top quartile, 26.7% from second quartile, 17.6% from third quartile, and 18.6% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 21.3% from top quartile, 26.2% from second quartile, 22.0% from third quartile, and 30.6% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.913
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Egypt 2007-2008:

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 35.1% from top quartile, 28.0% from second quartile, 20.1% from third quartile, and 16.7% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 29.8% from top quartile, 30.5% from second quartile, 21.7% from third quartile, and 18.0% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 17.5% from top quartile, 23.2% from second quartile, 25.8% from third quartile, and 33.4% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.931

    Uruguay 2007-2008 combined table for two seasons (the country has two seasons per year):

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 35.2% from top quartile, 26.9% from second quartile, 21.3% from third quartile, and 16.6% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 37.1% from top quartile, 26.7% from second quartile, 17.6% from third quartile, and 18.6% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 21.3% from top quartile, 26.2% from second quartile, 22.0% from third quartile, and 30.6% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.913
     
  4. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Egypt 2007-2008:

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 35.1% from top quartile, 28.0% from second quartile, 20.1% from third quartile, and 16.7% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 29.8% from top quartile, 30.5% from second quartile, 21.7% from third quartile, and 18.0% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 17.5% from top quartile, 23.2% from second quartile, 25.8% from third quartile, and 33.4% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.931

    Uruguay 2007-2008 combined table for two seasons (the country has two seasons per year):

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 35.2% from top quartile, 26.9% from second quartile, 21.3% from third quartile, and 16.6% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 37.1% from top quartile, 26.7% from second quartile, 17.6% from third quartile, and 18.6% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 21.3% from top quartile, 26.2% from second quartile, 22.0% from third quartile, and 30.6% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.913
     
  5. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Egypt 2007-2008:

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 35.1% from top quartile, 28.0% from second quartile, 20.1% from third quartile, and 16.7% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 29.8% from top quartile, 30.5% from second quartile, 21.7% from third quartile, and 18.0% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 17.5% from top quartile, 23.2% from second quartile, 25.8% from third quartile, and 33.4% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.931

    Uruguay 2007-2008 combined table for two seasons (the country has two seasons per year):

    Teams: 16
    Schedule: Balanced double round-robin
    Point Percentages by quartile: 35.2% from top quartile, 26.9% from second quartile, 21.3% from third quartile, and 16.6% from bottom quartile
    Goals Scored by quartile: 37.1% from top quartile, 26.7% from second quartile, 17.6% from third quartile, and 18.6% from bottom quartile
    Goals Allowed by quartile: 21.3% from top quartile, 26.2% from second quartile, 22.0% from third quartile, and 30.6% from bottom quartile
    Correlation Between Points and Goal Differential = 0.913
     

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