The finishing of Havertz and Fullkrug is very similar - that is what the data says Also hitting the post is still missing. And sure - Harry Kane is a much better striker than Fullkrug or Havertz. I hate him as a player though - on account of how he is Spurs
There is difference though. Havertz has been backed unconditionally, even when he's not offered much, his selection is still pretty much guaranteed. On the other hand, Fullkrug gets scrutinised every time, and he's constantly having to play out of his skin to even be relevant. The lack of clarity of his position both in the Dortmund and Germany team has put him under more pressure. I think a move to Spain will take him out of the limelight, maybe then we will see a really consistent Fullkrug.
sure. but that’s why i am saying Nagelsmann values his tactical plan more and takes the best aspects of both players along with their shortcomings. havertz muller and fullkrug all had equal opportunity to win the spain match. IMO the main issue was lack of chance creation. Germany just had the one big chance for Mueller.
personally i think Nagelsmann wants a player with the mobility and technical game of Havertz but who is a better striker. that’s why he bought Beier for example.
Yep. But in a highly tactical game, fine margins are the difference between winning and losing, rarely we get chance after chance in these games.
If you talk about clear chances v Spain, what about the close range header Havertz missed when he headed it straight at Simon or the chance he had to chip it over him when Spain had given the ball away from a goal kick and he instead put too much on and lifted it over? I don't care what xg might have said (often debatable on its accuracy), both were chances a clinical CF buries and you cannot afford to miss in such a match.
we had 2XG in that game. neither Havertz nor Fülle had a chance that would be scored more than 20% on average.
well that’s the problem. there is no such clinical striker. it’s a misunderstanding of how often such chances are scored.
But in a game of this magnitude, even half chances have to be converted. The Spanish winner at best was a 50-50 chance , but he took it very well.
I really do hope, all the options upfront who are in contention do well. In particular I really like what Beier has to offer with his electric pace. That alone is very dangerous for defences.
i’m excited about Beier. let’s hope he can continue. i agree his pace is a big asset. Germany were very one paced at times with Sane being bobbins.
Look at the two goals Fullkrug scored, v Scotland and Switzerland. One a rasping unstoppable drive into the top corner and the other an excellent well placed header. Be honest, how likely is Havertz to score chances like that? He rarely ever finishes in an emphatic way, his shooting and heading technique lack the sufficient power. Which is a problem imo. We need a CF who has a more ruthless streak and has a natural strikers instinct, neither of which are Kai's strengths. We weren't unlucky against Spain, we lost because we couldn't finish our (limited) chances and they did. Which is the same as our previous eliminations from recent tournaments (Japan, Spain in Qatar and England in Euro spring to mind). Something that will continue to be a problem in all big matches with Havertz/a false 9 playing CF I fear.
yeah Germany vs Spain 2022 WC, none should forget that we missed chance after chance after chance and it wasn't until Fullkrug was subbed in that we scored in that match. Not only that but he elevated the team once he was subbed on. Fullkrug showed that he can be a difference maker in 2/2 NT tourneys he played at. Havertz played CF in 2 back to back and failed in back to back, he has 0 finishing, 0 presence, poor movement, very easy to take him out of the match etc.
I agree he has taken his chances for Germany but his career stats which is over many more games doesn't suggest he is actually a ruthless striker.
This data suggests Undav is the best of all of them https://fbref.com/tiny/BZpNe However one issue is Havertz played half the season as an 8 so his data would be better looked at in the second half of the season - don't have that analysis. Beier is the most clinical. There is nothing to suggest Füller has a higher conversion %. His shots per 90 is actually a bit low for a 9 I'd suggest Undav and Beier are the future
I am using EPL and BL data Füllkrug actually has the worst conversion rate of all 4 players But like i say, that number generally is quite stable and will be somewhere a bit under 20% for a non elite 9. All these guys overperformed their XG a bit - Beier is likely slightly streaky
I think it's worth noting that Havertz's finishing, while disappointing, is probably not the only thing under consideration for Nagelsmann. His energy spearheading the press, his technical and passing ability in combining with other attackers, and his superior pace compared to Fullkrug are likely why he starts. While I disagree with those attributes being prized over Fullkrug's superior finishing and aerial prowess, I don't think it's accurate to say that Havertz is bringing nothing to the table.
Undav takes twice as many shots per 90 as Fülle Beier 1.4 times as many Be interesting if either kicks on - their stats are quite promising
but at end of day career stats don't matter when talking about NT. like players should hit double digits and overall do well at club but that is just to get a NT spot. but once you get a spot in the NT, the one who performs the best should be the 1st choice. Nagelsmann wasn't convinced by Havertz's NT showings so made him into a LB but then as he started to score more and more and went on a streak at Arsenal, he was like I'm playing him at CF because he's scoring a lot for club.......nevermind that he wasn't even impressing in NT. He got the 1st choice very early on based on nothing but club showings but that was wrong approach and Nagelsmann's 1st instinct about Havertz was the right call, LMAO. Doesn't impress all tourney, keeps his spot, post tourney also keeping his spot.............has drifted towards bias-stubborness of the Low-Flick era. Like if he benches Havertz=admitting he made a blunder in trusting him for Euro.
It's worth noting that Fullkrug was also a high-conversion player in low minutes in WC2022 as well. I'm willing to propose and endorse the hypothesis that Fullkrug's fit as someone who brings attributes to the table Germany needs makes him a superior performer for Germany as opposed to the club level. It would not be the first time a player who is relatively mediocre at the club level excels for their national team. Or vice versa, a player failing to replicate their club performance for their national team, It's a frequent phenomenon.
One of the problems with NT analysis is it's such small sample sizes and also there are few games under the new regime. As a pure probability, you would bet Fülle won't continue such a hot streak - but also he could. It'a also unlikely Havertz will continue to be so cold. But maybe his 2024 arsenal form was the streak - really need more data to know Personally I think Undav and Beier look more promising and a better tactical fit But also they could frizzle - we'll see.
the problem with Undav+Beier who people keep bringing up is -Undav is only 1.8m tall, although he plays like a complete CF and has scored numerous headers in 1BL that is NOT a well liked height for CFs in German footy. Nevermind that historically a lot of German CFs in past were in the 170s-early 180s. But they will give a this is "MODERN FOOTY" statement and requirements in the game aren't the same anymore. -Beier needs to gain some muscle/weight and improve in the air. But due to his skill set he's a great option as a sub. like reality neither really fits what German footy obsesses over. DFB, Coaches, Media etc OBSESS over the CFs who are more like Havertz, Fullkrug, Kane, Morata, Giroud, Gomez etc. or they legit fixate on the CLASSICAL CF. For me classical CF=useless, LOL. Go for more complete package that is better call between the 2. reality neither Undav nor Beier fits the German fixation for what a CF should be. also look at Werner and what feels like 50% of DFB/coaches/media saw him as NT CF and others are like we NEED A CF aka SOMEONE WHO IS MORE BIG AND DOMINANT. even Low when talking about Werner back in day was still -, he wanted a more complete good at everything Suarez instead. If DFB isn't obsessing over a BIG AND PHYSICAL CF they are open to ones like Suarez, Eto'o, Klose, Lewa etc who are in the 180s and compelete package. Like if you are in that 180s range you have to be Elite and allround game. that is why when looking at next gen CFs, reality ones who fit DFB+German footy fixation are the ones who have the best shot of becoming NT CFs. We do have numerous very promising CFs who fit the German footy fixation and complete package too but not ready for WC26, LOL.