GDP and the World Cup

Discussion in 'Statistics and Analysis' started by Abram Jones, Nov 30, 2022.

  1. Abram Jones

    Abram Jones Member

    Jun 18, 2016
    Wisconsin (WI)
    Approximately 70% of countries within the top 20 for most GDP have qualified for the World Cup.

    Approximately 91% of countries outside the top 20 for most GDP did not qualify for the World Cup.

    Note: the following opinions are not based solely on the 2 statistics above, but on over a decade of research.

    Wealth and population amount are 2 very large factors in international sports. These factors are so important that they completely destroy the purpose of rankings and tournaments in most cases, by not reflecting the skill per capita and per wealth in any given sport. The result is that small countries that are efficient in a sport usually lose out to bigger countries that are less efficient simply due to an economic situation. These factors can easily be greatly reduced with a common sense restructuring of how international sports teams are organized.

    Even high schools in the United States partially understand this concept. Schools are classified by enrollment for sporting purposes.

    There are several solutions to this problem. I will provide 2.

    Solution 1
    The best in my opinion is to classify regions by wealth and population amount using a simple formula, and update this data every 10 years. These classifications will determine who others can play in official matches. A region will be able to play another if they don't double the other's result to the simple formula. This will also allow for fluid international rankings. Regarding tournaments: The result of a formula would be stated and any region whose result of the formula falls within said range of this would potentially be able to to qualify for the tournament.

    The vast majority of the time these regions will be countries. But larger countries will be broken down into their regions (such as states and provinces). Very small countries will be encouraged to form regions (like the West Indies cricket team). Regarding larger countries, determining who can play for what region would be relatively simple. It could be determined by where a player grew up, or how long a player has had primary residence in a given region (I would say 9 years minimum). Either way, they should follow similar eligibility rules that others have to follow (for example, only being allowed to play for 1 region).

    Solution 2
    Using this same wealth and population formula, put a cap on the amount a region is able to have. If a region exceeds this it must be divided. Regions that don't come close to this stated formula result will be encouraged to combine with other regions, but will still be allowed to participate if they don't want to. The pro of solution 2 is that every region will still be able to play each other. The con is that it won't be as effective as solution 1 in reducing the interference of wealth and population in international results, but it will still be satisfactory. At least in this case you won't have absolutely ridiculous amounts in wealth and population differences that completely destroy the point of a match (extreme examples: Germany playing Luxembourg in football, or United States playing United States Virgin Islands in basketball).

    How International Matches Will Look Under These Systems
    Here are some examples off the top of my head (I didn't do the math, just providing a realistic estimate on how matches will look).

    Soccer Football
    Wales VS West Midlands (England)
    Scotland VS North West (England)
    Ireland VS London (England)
    State of Mexico (Mexico) VS Texas (United States)
    Jalisco (Mexico) VS Honduras
    Nuevo Leon (Mexico) VS Washington (United States)
    Mato Grosso du Sul (Brazil) VS Uruguay
    Santa Catarina (Brazil) VS Serbia
    Buenos Aires (Argentina) VS Belgium
    Switzerland VS Lower Saxony (Germany)

    Alabama (United States) VS Lithuania
    Uruguay VS Cordoba (Argentina)
    Croatia VS Galicia (Spain)
    Montenegro VS Navarre (Spain)
    Serbia VS Indiana (United States)

    Puerto Rico VS Iowa (United States)
    Cuba VS Virginia (United States)

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