http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/space/06/02/private.space/index.html I thought I'd lighten up the discussion around here. I've been following this for about a year now and can't say how excited I am! What do you all think the repurcussions of the x-prize being won will have on us all?
Ok, I'll start things off! It seems obvious that if this ride is successful the doors to the private space industry will have been blown wide open. What exactly will define that industry I think will be the most exciting aspect. If we are to be witness to the next great step in human kind's expansion and exploration then I cannot think of a more exciting time.
Its a shame no one else is interested. Get sick of discussing war, death tolls, sh!tty presidents, crazy environmentalists, taxes, espionage, terrorists, suicide bombs, kidnappings, murder, yadda yadda yadda.
Do you really think that private industry will be able to compete for the business of lifting satellites into space (as this is the only commercial application there is at the moment) against massively subsidised government organisations? I can see it happening eventually, but not for many, many, many years. I'm sure that if this launch goes well then there will be some crackpot quotes about going off to the moon or mars and bringing back minerals and the like, but that is literally "pie in the sky".
Don't be so narrow minded as to believe that satellites are the only application available to a commercial space industry. To begin with space tourism should begin to see development right away. A major goal of the x-prize is to prove that an organization like NASA does not have a monopoly on the tech and brains needed to get man into at least near earth orbit. NASA has been shackled by insufficient funding and a lack of manpower to the point that satelllite launching is all they will be left with if the X-Prize is ever won.
Space is a really, really awful place for people. It's hard to get there, staying there makes you sick, and there is no reason to be there in the first place. On the contrary, Earth is wonderful. Frankly, I worry about your soul, that you think our planet is so boring and limiting that going to a place worse than hell seems romantic. If Shakespeare can make up new words, so can I. Isn't it awesome?
Alright, I'll talk. First off it's excellent news. The first manned, private edge of space flight. Hard to believe its taken 40 years... Remember, this DOES NOT win the X-Prize. This is just the first ship to attempt launch to reach X-Prize altitude. After a ship can hit this height, they have to do it again with to passengers, then do that again within two weeks. What does this actually mean for space travel ? Well, it has nothing to do with launching satellites. It has everything to do with tourism. I have no idea how much this ride would cost. The 2 current rides seem to be a ride in a Mig 24 km up (~$20K) or the super trip to the ISS via Russia (~$20M). This new sub-orbital level seems to be a nice medium. Would $2 million be the price tag ? How much would people pay to become an astronaut (anyone who goes above 100km) ?? It will be interesting to see if the other X-Prize contestants continue their vehicle development if Rutan&co. win this summer. I'll also be interesting to see if Rutan can come up with a viable business plan for this vehicle...and if that business plan is for the US or Russia, where skilled labor would be cheaper. Either way, it's good news with plenty more stuff to come.
Earth is wonderful. There is no doubt about this. However, there is nothing "worse than hell" about space and all of its wonders. Mankind's inherent urge to explore and expand is eventually going to get us at least onto some of the other rocks in our solar system. It is just a matter of time. No problems with made up words! Just jivin' ya.
Hard to believe indeed, but perhaps we stand on the brink of something huge. They actually have to send up a pilot and at LEAST the equivalant balast of two other passangers twice within two weeks. A minor detail to be sure! Tourism will definately be the first step. And if you consider that this whole excercise is designed to lower cost and efficiency plus turn around time then it is very possible you will start to see tickets for a flight into space costing in the 10s of thousands, not millions at all. I think they will certianly continue to develop their product. In order to compete they are going to have to prove they can do it as well. There will still be alot of prestige for the teams and companies that pull this off, regardless of whether or not they win the X-Prize itself. 100% agreed.
I've been following the X-Prize since it's inception and have had that that dead-sexy Space Ship One and White Knight combo on my desktop for almost a year. You gotta admit that from a design standpoint, these things are quite elegant. As for the long-term implications of this thing, it is an important thing for the aerospace industry. An article in this week's Economist gives a good wrap up of the reasons why. michaec asks how these entrepreneurs can comptete against the heavilly subsidiesed government contractors in the satellite launch biz. They can't right away. But those government subidised contractors and especially NASA are woefully inefficient and expensive. The space privatization movement is pushing technology to make access to space cheaper and more efficient. The result will be cheaper space-based industry (satellite communications services) and better and cooler science.One example of this push towards innovation and expense reduction is the innovative rocket used in Space Ship One. The short-term boom in big-ticket space tourism trade will allow these entrepreneurs to come close to paying for their R&D until they get to the point where they can get significant payloads to LEO. After that, uh... the sky's the limit. As for why bother? Well the bottom line for me has always been based on two assumptions. One, if the Earth were hollow and full of oil (or any other resource) we would pump it all out eventually. Upstairs lies more of everything we use than we could ever use. Our moving into space in inevitable for long-term survival of the species. Two, its the vision thing, man. People have to have new horizons and challenges, humans are expansionist. Anyway, it's just a cool thing from a geek's perspective. I'll be watching Monday.
This is, IMO, very exciting stuff. I always wanted to be an astronaut when I was a kid. Even attended SpaceCamp.