First debate between VP Harris and Trump...The only one? Tues 10 Sept 2024, 9pm EDT

Post-debate polls dropping. Looks great but regression to the mean is the norm. It'll tighten a little bit and then he'll debate again. Another disaster or even a draw and she'll probably win it

Post debate polls:
Harris 50-45 (+5) Morn Consult
Harris 47-42 (+5) Ipsos/Reuters
Harris 51-47 (+4) RMG
Harris 50-46 (+4) Data4Progress
Harris 49-45 (+4) YouGov/Times (LVs)
Harris 50-47 (+3) Leger/NYPost
Harris 48-45 (+3) SoCal
Harris 44-42 (+2) Redfield/W
Happy Friday!

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) September 13, 2024

 

Sounders78 said: ↑
While most Belgians are wonderful people, there are those who are very uptight...

Well, if you Brits would stop referring to Poirot being French maybe it would help!

 

When Harris took over for Biden, the Dems were probably down by 5% or so in NC. Since then, as you acknowledge, the 538 polls have her now up slightly. Not by a lot, but clearly in a much better position than in July and with the state trending toward Harris since she has become the nominee.

Moreover, my initial post was towards the Dutchman who was alleging Harris had stalled and Trump had the upper hand based on RCP data. That is clearly not true and that is what I was pushing back against when I made the NC comment.

 

RCP just updated. They know have Harris ahead in the electoral college, 276-262.

It's not good for Trump when even RCP has him behind.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

 

Are you referring to Eric looking pissed at his father or junior thinking "really, I'm his son?".

 

I Don't Know...3rd Base!

 

I see stories like this and really think the pro-life people deserve to be smacked with their Bibles until they get a concussion.

 

I understand what you were saying.

Now take the time to understand what I am saying.

Unless you have an average of polls wherein one candidate is reliably -- I am using reliable in the statistical sense -- ahead by 5 or more, you should not claim either candidate is "leading." The margin of error for state polling in elections where Donald Trump is a candidate is very high.

 

North Carolina. That's why I linked to North Carolina's 538 forecast.

National polls and £3.50 buy you a cup of coffee.

 

It’s the norm because normal candidates react to a bad debate in the right way.

Trump is refusing to do a second debate, and he’s making Haitians in Springfield a key talking point, and he has taken on Lara Loomer as either a lover, an advisor, or maybe both.

I submit, that’s not the right way.

Normal people are capable of reacting to a failure in a helpful, positive way. Trump is literally not capable of that.

 

Not sure that's true.

I remember a TV show that did a straw poll where people were asked to name someone famous from various countries (footballers were excluded), and when it got to Belgium, Poirot was the only one anyone could think of

 

Can I just point out I come here to be made to feel better and you're doing the opposite... please stop

 

I gotta say, I look at the polling, (whichever way it's running), and then look at what he's doing and think, HOW?!?!?!

 

I'll raise you.

How, FOX News:

USA 🇺🇸

Pour la première fois depuis le début de la campagne américaine, la chaîne Fox News met en avant que K. Harris devance D. Trump dans la perspective de l'élection. pic.twitter.com/XbPh0URtlz

— Cartes du Monde (@CartesDuMonde) September 14, 2024

 

All of this is true. But Trump's reaction to bad news is always, always, to double down. And despite any norms or logic, it has worked for him time and time again. While I am feeling good about our prospects, our chickens have not hatched yet.

 

No. Go knock on some doors.

 

You're mean!

 

Like, “how is he polling in the double digits?” I know.

I’ve been asking that since early 2016. The answers are terrifying.

 

You are aware of how fat, stoopid, ignorant, racist, sexist, and self serving the average American is, right?


Then, accept the fact that half of Americans are fatter, stoopider, more ignorant, more racist, more sexist, and more self serving than "the average."


Then, add into it that the media are SELLING stories, not TELLING stories, all with the aim of selling "the horserace" to a witless and ignorant populace. After all, they gotta get the clicks, the ratings, and the eyeballs, feed that algo, and grab that cash.



...that's "HOW."

 

Article on the actual "DEI" candidates:

 

TBH I'm not even sure the fascists are the only problem, (although they're the big one, obviously). I just think there are too many people willing to give simplistic answers to complex questions.

This is also the case with people who think of themselves as being on the left who give answers designed around a list of 'people to blame', (often in business and finance), and while they're clearly part of the problem, they're not the ONLY ones.

 

America has largely embraced anti-intellectualism.