First debate between VP Harris and Trump...The only one? Tues 10 Sept 2024, 9pm EDT

It hasn’t even been 24 hours. This is like a tweet from NYTPitchbot.

Is there polling data supporting this notion? AIUI Trump’s overperformances in 2016 and 2020 were NOT based on the kind of polling error you suggest here, but instead based on likely voter models that underestimated the turnout of certain Trumpy demographics.

 

I noticed that. He recently said something about being in communication with him. "Barely know the guy but he respects Trump"

 

I saw reporting for at least one of them. Just in case you or someone here doesn’t get the reference, various MAGA websites or twitter accounts create polls, but it’s like back in the old days when bigsoccer hordes would descend on some Euro clubs’ website to make sure Cory Gibbs or Brian McBride were “voted” man of the match. IOW not a “poll” as normally understood.

Trump is so detached from reality, so devoid of anyone in his inner circle that will tell to put on some GD clothes before going out, that he doesn’t realize nobody, and I mean nobody, who watched that debate thought he won. He comes across as extra unhinged when he talks about debate polls showing him the winner with 91 or 88%.

 

Funny image, but I’m guessing the Secret Service wouldn’t be too stoked about that.

If the Chiefs 3 peat their visit to the White House might have a little extra zazz.

Which reminds me of the time Pence went to an NFL game, inconveniencing everyone in attendance with all the extra security, just so he could performatively protest players taking a knee during the anthem by leaving. What an asshole.

 

It’s just a perfect little phrase, isn’t it? The only variable at this moment is how long it will take to get played out.

For normie voters, the one thing they tend to pick up on is, which side is dominating, and which side is mockable. Once a pol becomes mockable, it’s all over. The whole debate was the “emperor is wearing no clothes” moment we’ve been waiting for. Desperately. That phrase is kind of a marker, a signifier, for the fecklessness of Trump.

If that phrase becomes a cliche for anyone who is clueless but unaccountable, that’s a bigger worry for Trump’s chances, IMO, than the far more dangerous racist shit about Haitians and cats.

 

Let’s see the reaction from some independent voters:

Trump is the laughingstock of the entire world 😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/EGddBf51To

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) September 12, 2024

 

One such male, very young (I suspect this is the first Presidential year election he is eligible to vote) "undecided" voter admitted when questioned that he had learned something from this debate -- that Kamala Harris was the VP. Of course, he then went on to say that he was favoring Trump even though he acknowledged that Harris did better. So, yes, where do they find these people?

 

The racist spin is Miller’s only move:

I asked Stephen Miller, one of Donald Trump's top advisors, what is the evidence for saying that Caracas and Venezuela are safer than the United States. He began by answering that it is the government's numbers. I asked him if he trusted Maduro's numbers. And this was his… pic.twitter.com/qkXTNiGmt0

— José María Del Pino (@josemdelpino) September 11, 2024

 

There’s a reason I’m posting this here and not in the tweet thread.

Here are the fact-checks that Trumpers are mad about today:

— Moms are not murdering their babies
— Migrants aren’t eating your pets
— Biden won the 2020 election

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 11, 2024

This was posted in a piece I just read. The writer went on to point out something that has become a kind of unmarked category, namely, the constant sanewashing of Trump. Trump benefiting from sanewashing is just part of the landscape now.

Anyway, the writer said that the fact that Trump was surprised at the pushback shows how awful Jake Tapper and Dana Bash were. I thought that was a quality insight.

We are literally living in a time where an entire political movement thinks it’s unfair for a journalist to point out that Haitians in Springfield are not having Fluffy for breakfast. I’m working through Shirer’s Rise and Fall but I’m not even at the Beer Hall Putsch yet. But the parallels are already pretty obvious. One thing that IMO distinguishes fascism from garden variety right wing authoritarianism is that fascists don’t believe in reality, they don’t understand the concept like you and I do.

MAGA has no interest in whether or not the story is real. It’s like how I would react if someone said they aren’t voting for Harris because she’s a fan of Golden State, and the person was adamant that godddammit, I will NOT vote for anyone who supports Steph and the boys. To me, deciding who to vote for based on their sports fandom is mind boggling. In the same way, to MAGA, fact checking Trump is mind boggling. Why would you do that? What’s the point?

 

I stopped caring about undecideds when people and media (Including media people I respect) fawned over this guy. This was 2016. The whole thing screamed of schmaltzy dreck. Like why are we giving this man attention? What on Earth does he have to offer?

On a related note, I am currently two years older than he was in 2016. I legit thought this man was in his 40s. I didn't even realize he's five years older than me. Like damn.

 

Wow. Just wow.

 

Ok, bear with me. I finally was able to watch this… er, let’s call it a ‘debate,’ from beginning to end. Honestly, I have to say I’m a bit confused. Harris did pretty well.

Trump? I don’t know. The reporting was all about him ‘taking the bait,’ over and over again. But, to me, his performance wasn’t much different from what’s been on display for years in so many of his rallies. He’s a wretched human being and pathological liar, as if that’s something we didn’t already know. Is the big achievement from last night simply that he spewed some of his idiotic, hate-filled bile on national TV instead of in front of 5,000-8,000 people at individual events in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan? Is it just that the media has, for years and years and years ignored the racism, misogyny, the absurd volcano of rancid lies, the bizarre behavior, but that last night they paid some attention to it? That he received a few, tepid real time fact checks?

I just don’t get it. I seriously doubt any Trump supporter would have been fazed by his performance last night, because they’ve been watching - and embracing - this shitshow for years. They probably thought he did well.

The so-called undecided voter? Well, I don’t know. It feels like a contradiction in terms. ‘Voter’ implies someone who’s committed to voting. But you’d have to be thick as a brick, or suffering from some sort of cognitive disorder to be a committed voter who simply can’t choose between these two people. I wonder more about the apathetic American, who’s eligible to vote, but normally doesn’t bother. But maybe they own a business (or want to start one). Or served or have family who’s served in the military. Or they live in PA and are of Polish ancestry.

Anyway, for me, the biggest plus of the debate isn’t so much what happened. It’s the uniform media reaction to it. I’m far from embracing the concept that perception is reality. But people’s perceptions are easily influenced. So regardless of what really occurred yesterday, whether or not anyone paying the most half-assed attention to the election learned anything new (especially about Trump), the universal opinion they’ll hear is that she kicked his ass. Maybe that’ll influence some people’s decisions. We’re obviously a society where people’s opinions are easily influenced.

Regarding Harris, this was an impossible task, and she did reasonably well. The format, such as it is, was pretty unfriendly to actual debate. And I’m now in the camp of those who felt ABC was almost criminally negligent in allowing Trump to get an extra minute, or two, or three over and over again. I honestly don’t think it hurt him. Again, because his cultist base adores his ramblings. The more, the merrier. But despite a few fact checks, he was left to lie nonstop for virtually the entire event. She presented her prepared remarks, but often in widely divergent ways that were a bit hard to follow, just trying to keep up with and tangentially respond to Trump’s stream of consciousness babble. But she also reminded me of some of my job interview experiences: she had a lot to say, and sometimes tried to pack every argument - too much - into her answers.

I guess the question is, to what extent do you think the average American voter can discern quality arguments from bullshit? Fact from fiction? Tens of millions of them can’t. The macho bluster draws them in, even if they don’t have a clue what the words are supposed to mean or who in God’s name Viktor Orban is, and why he’s evidently hungry.

 

Great post.

The one opportunity I’m genuinely disappointed she missed is that despite a dozen openings, she never started a response with, “What in the world are you talking about?”

Here’s why. Swing voters are almost always the lowest of low information voters. So for lots of the debate, the discussion went over their heads. Especially during Trump rants. I imagine such a person thinking, wow, this is something else I’d don’t know about. Or, wow, I can’t believe that, maybe I should vote for Trump.

She could have planted a seed to those voters, no, you’re not ignorant about this policy. It’s Trump who is ignorant.

 

Here's the thing about him taking the bait over and over again, which was pretty obvious to people paying attention - it highlights how easily other world leaders (think Putin, Kim, Orban, etc.) can manipulate him. I'm not sure that has been on display as vividly for a casual viewer in the past as it was last night.

 

There was also Joe the Plumber. Think that was 2008. Saw on Wikipedia he died of the pancreatic last year

 

He can be manipulated by flattery quite easily and surely was by his foreign despot "friends". Aides also played the "Get in to see him at the last minute to pitch your position" game. Spouts the last thing that enters his lizard brain. Apparently that gobshite Loomer was with him on the plane before he came out with the cats & dogs line.

 

Republicans: Trump won.

Democrats: Kamala won.

Me: Why the fuck does Benny Beaver need a chainsaw? Doesn’t that dipshit know he can use his teeth? What an idiot. pic.twitter.com/uwVGSM2IGd

— B1G Duck Energy (@jw_2198) September 11, 2024

 

Because he's gone too Woke

 

speaking of Jimmy Kimmel...



...12:00, "I have concepts of a plan."

 

It's his one true talent. The reason why his supporters followed him from the beginning, and continue to follow him today.

He makes them believe it's ok to be their worst selves.

 

Great work everyone. Round of applause.