Now that women’s soccer has become a focal point for other countries, coaching is being taken seriously with their programs. And now we see even with the US having arguably its best female athletes playing soccer, the world has caught up. To me, that tells me that even if the best male athletes in the US played soccer (which has long been the thought process of why US men don’t dominate), we still wouldn’t be performing at the highest level. If the U.S. goes into another big tournament and lays and egg, clearly the world has caught up, and the knowledge and training done by other soccer rich counties is simply better than the U.S…. Which honestly is scary, because if this is the case, we haven’t been able to ever find a men’s coach to get us over the hump, finding a women’s coach to get us elite again may be darn near impossible…
I kept hearing how the world has caught up for the last two world cups. its getting old. The world will have caught up when we aren’t in the semis for a couple cycles. so far that’s never happened.
Last major tournament they didn’t perform well at all. And it’s not like they’ve been smoking teams since that point…. They’ve lost. You’re acting like the trend line was pointing up and this has just come about. The writing has been on the wall…. Hopefully, we’ll get it together, but to act naive about it would be silly. This team ain’t gonna magically turn it on and blow past people come World Cup. They’ve proven they’re beatable and they really have their work cut out for them now. The US lost their intimidation factor edge…. Now every team they play is going to stroll in thinking/wanting/believing they can take them down.
the last World Cup was won by the team everyone has caught up with. The same team was caught up with the cup before. They won that, too. The cup before that went to a shootout in the final, so technically a tie. each time it was a different team that peaked for one cycle and then faded. You do get that the team that everyone has caught up with hasn’t been beaten in a KO round World Cup match in almost a decade and a half, right? actually, more than that. The last team that beat the USA in a WC KO match was Brasil in 2007. has Brasil caught up? Or did they just strike lightning one cycle. ponder this. What team has beaten the USA twice in a World Cup KO match? That team will have a tenuous claim they caught up.
I look at the upcoming World Cup a little differently, since I am a stats person. I hope the US will win, but that is an unrealistic hope. What country every has won the World Cup three times in a row? Answer that question and you should understand why, if the US does not win it in 2023, it proves little. If the US completely bombs out, that could be different, but after 2019 the US moved into the re-building mode. That was complicated by the delay in the Olympics that followed. It is not reasonable to have very high expectations about what the current team will accomplish. Hope, always yes, but expect, no.
In my view, the U.S. hasn't looked like THE dominant women's soccer power since winning the World Cup in 2019. Part of it is that many other nations' programs are surely getting better. Part of it is that our older stars are, of course, declining in their skill levels, getting injured, having babies, etc. Part of it is that our younger stars aren't at their peak yet (and, I'm guessing, won't be in 2023). Part of it is that our players have had the major distraction of their admirable battle for equal pay. Part of it is that our current coach--who I do NOT blame for everything imaginable--hasn't shown any great talent for getting his ever-changing roster to surprise me and others by looking intimidating. I'm rooting for the U.S., so of course I'm hoping that my gloomy outlook is proven completely wrong. I'd be fine with that. But, like cpthomas, I don't see our team winning the World Cup in 2023. He called it "an unrealistic hope." I agree.
"Caught up" is a vague term. A lot of times, I think the people who use it seem to be saying both "the gap has disappeared" and "we're getting permanently passed up". The former is mostly true, while the latter is impossible to evaluate but probably false. What a lot of people try to point out is that other countries have better "soccer culture" than the USA does. While I think that's true on the men's side, I think it's patently false on the women's side. There will never be the "if only our best athletes played soccer" argument on the women's side because that's already happening. So the talent level will always be there. Also, US WoSo has been around long enough that some of those players are beginning to enter the coaching ranks, so I don't think coaching will be a problem on the women's side, even if it is on the men's side. So has the world "caught up"? Well, in the most recent FIFA rankings, there are 8 teams within 100pts of the USA; it's the first time ever that the "100-to-1 range" extends past 5th or 6th place. So in one sense, yes, the gap is much smaller than it used to be. This is just one ranking, though, and it's got a few odd circumstances around it, from there being less than 10pts between 6th and 9th to it coming right after the USA lost two matches in a row for the first time since 2017. The question comes down to something I've brought up often: is the past X few months a sign of an upcoming trend, or just a bit of natural variation? I do agree that the USA has probably lost its intimidation factor. But has it lost its strength? That I don't know. Sure, the USA looked absolutely awful in the last Olympics. But absolutely awful still netted the USA a bronze medal. For any other teams, e.g. CAN in 2011 or ESP in 2015, "absolutely awful" means you're out in the group stage. The last two friendlies weren't great either, but most people watching agreed that it looked like the USA players simply didn't show up. I'm not going to really worry unless the USA starts losing even when going 100%. So will we win the next WC? It's not likely, but I think expectations make that a poor measuring stick. Being the best team doesn't help a lot if there are a lot of contenders; you can still be the most likely to win by a wide margin at the start of the tournament and sill only have, like, a 25% chance at the title. Like, on the men's side, BRA is unquestionably one of if not the best team coming into each WC - but they haven't won the thing since 2002. So you could say the world has caught up to BRA (a long time ago honestly) but they still have some sort of edge that always makes them among the favorites. That's where I see the USA being in the future - and, at that point, it just comes down to the luck of the knockout round. Have a down day against the wrong team in the QFs, and that's it. That's not a sign that your team has regressed, but that's how a lot of people seem to think when they say "the world has caught up to the US women".
Based on volume alone, the margin for error in USA is massive. Most of the efficiency in men’s soccer talent ID is borne out of economics. It makes money. There is no such incentive for women outside of a handful of teams. To overcome the in built advantages the USA have at NT level to a point where they don’t make the KO stage of tournaments is not happening any time soon and once they get there, anything can happen.
"The rest of the world has caught up." It's not like the US won all 8 previous WWCs. They have done well with 4 wins, 1 second & 3 thirds. But many of the same countries that can win now have been there since 1991. 1991: US-Norway-Sweden-Germany 1995: Norway-Germany-US-China 1999: US-China-Brazil-Norway (US won on PKs) 2003: Germany-Sweden-US-Canada 2007: Germany-Brazil-US-Norway 2011: Japan-US-Sweden-France (US lost on PKs) 2015: US-Japan-England-Germany 2019: US-Netherlands-Sweden-England If you look at the early records for the team, it's not like they were instantly dominant when they started playing in 1986. By 1990, they had started to be an established force, but you see the mostly European squads keeping pace. We see certain teams that have started to challenge the early powers (e.g., NLD, England, Japan), but the early dominant teams (other than China) haven't really faded much. It's not so much that the rest of the world has caught up as it is that some new teams have joined the early leaders. France & Spain seem to be ones who may be nudging into the select group. We'll probably have a greater term of parity over the next few WCs because there are more teams who can compete and more opportunities for a top team to fall.
Hey guys! So I don't know where the discussion thread for the game is last night but yeah.... FIRE VLATKO. Thee end.
Alright, so, about last night. Top level: the USA lost a game to a team that's always been on our heels. So not something to worry about on its own, and particularly not something to worry about if we win the second game - which, based on yesterday's performance, it seems very reasonable that we *should* win, as it was a fairly even match. That said, definitely worth digging into our performance, especially in the context of these last three games taken together, a bit more. I previously said this: I still don't think the team that showed up last night was 100% of what we could do, so not a *huge* worry yet. However, one big glaring problem from all three games but particularly last night was the sheer error-prone-ness of our current back line. Cook is not the answer, and while she made the NWSL Best XI this year, I didn't have her on my personal fan ballot. Granted, the lack of finishing is also a problem. This game, moreso than the previous two, could have easily been a draw or a win for the US, but several great opportunities didn't result in goals. Still, I think the backline is a bigger issue right now. And yes, Vlatko is showing his own weakness as a coach. I think he goes into games with a plan (of sorts) and rarely deviates from that - which isn't a problem if the team is doing well, but the when weak spots start to show, I don't think he can adapt well.
I had said somewhere that I wouldn't start worrying unless we weren't making changes after the European road trip losses and if the Germany games showed a lack of tactical flexibility. And even though, I think the last match was much closer than the result showed, we still didn't make many changes. We seem locked in to the tactical plan, and also just hopefully waiting for injured players to come back to the team. That said, I think it's too late to fire Vlatko. At this point, we have to dance with the one that brought us. He'll be the coach at least through the WWC, and if the team bombs out there, maybe then (although isn't his contract through the Olympics?).
Sermanni was fired about 5 months before WCQ and 14 months before the start of the 2015 WWC. We're now past WCQ and 250 days (just over 8 months) away from the start of the WWC. For the USWNT, there are 10 games left, including the upcoming Germany game, whereas Ellis had 26 games with the team before the 2015 WWC.
Gee if only he was fired after his pathetic performance during the olympics then there would be more time for a new coach. But people would rather blame the players and kiss this mans ass.
Actually, many called for the replacement of Jill Ellis for her even more pathetic Olympic effort which resulted in the only time in history when no medal whatever was earned in a major competition. National team coaches rarely survive that. but she got a pass because her bestie April was her boss. The players won the next World Cup despite her.
Get it correct! She got a pass because she won the world cup in 2015! With Vlatkos pathetic record he should have been on the hot seat after he celebrated that TIE with Australia. Anyone who defends this fool at this point is just plain foolish.
I expect to see Vlat make some changes today. He tried his "A" list and they didnt do it. If he rolls the same group out again and they fail again, then IMO he has to go. Four looses in a row is too much for anyone to expect to continue
The knee jerk side agrees. The rational side says these are friendlies…win or lose, it’s not major competition games. That said, things have been trending DOWN for a while (not simply last 4 matches). Pull the trigger NOW, if they’re gonna do it….
If they are going to fire him, do it now, so someone new has plenty of time…. Agree with A listers, but it’s been bad defense and unlucky finishing by Smith and Pugh, but to suggest either one of those are the issues are insane. Morgan is what she is at this point, but clearly Macario is needed badly. It’s the center of the defense and d mid that’s concerning…
Watching the replay of yesterdays game now and Mal Pughs goal. By the eruption of the crowd, and the announcer play by play screaming , you would have thought the U.S. just won the WC in extra time! Lol nice to see the passion though.
Not enough time to fix what I watched on the field during both games against Germany. Wasn't so much the coaching, unless the unnecessary passes by our two wingers is a Vlatko thing? D wise, man in that second game, unless Becky is right on someone, she isn't catching up to anyone. However, Cook/Germa didn't look good at all in game 1. USWNT needs Davidson and Dahlkamper back. Not that Dahlkamper is particularly fast, but she is stout and the best long baller I've seen from the CB position. Hope her back surgery leads to a speedy return. At this point, Becky needs to be a sub off of the bench.
Tee-hee! Time to bump this thread again. All, of course, in a good-faith effort to reverse-jinx the She Believes Cup.
Perhaps it's time to revive this thread, one of the finest collective efforts that BigSoccer has ever offered It's inevitable, I suppose, that these discussions involve some degree of what we fans inevitably do, which @TimB4Last adroitly summarized in his profile as "Play this guy! Play that guy!" And we're already engaged in a fairly complex discussion of the tactical progress (or lack of it) of the team in the Tiki-Taka/Tactics thread. But it is fair, for instance, to ask if Vlatko has responded at all adequately to the long-term absence of Julie Ertz and Sam Mewis in the midfield. Many fans, of course, disapprove of his midfield choice of Lavelle/Horan/Sullivan. To me, it's a reasonable enough first choice in the absence of Ertz and Sam Mewis, but he's responsible for making it work and it's taken him forever to make tactical adjustments to give it a chance to work. Anthony DiCicco (son of "legendary coach Tony DiCicco", as the saying goes) who likes Sullivan a lot but makes the point that you can't put Sullivan on an island the way you could Julie Ertz. It's taken forever for Vlatko to help her out with more of a double-pivot, which also allows Sullivan to move forward more to make a constructive impact. Also, even if Lavelle/Horan/Sullivan is a reasonable Plan A, it definitely calls for a solid Plan B. What is it? Suddenly in New Zealand, Vlatko's experimenting with Taylor Kornieck as a #6?! Kornieck had a good season last year for the San Diego Wave, but it's baffling to think she's the answer as a #6 while so many fans have been impressed by the play of other, more natural #6s, like Coffey, DeMelo, or Jaelin Howell. I also think Vlatko's being remarkably pig-headed about refusing to consider Crystal Dunn for a midfield role. In 2019, perhaps, you could say we had an "embarrassment of riches" in the midfield with four players (Lavelle/Horan/Sam Mewis/Ertz) to pick for a 3-man midfield, while Crystal Dunn was performing incredibly filling a weak spot at left back. But not now. Not since at least the Olympics. *** Vlatko's hardly an idiot. (Some fans disagree but I think not too many) Leaving Alex Morgan off the roster for several months after the Olympics was an important move which some of us fans loudly called for (but almost no journalists again, curiously). As obviously necessary ass it was to some of us, there's no question it took some boldness given Morgan's profile and celebrity status so Vlatko deserves credit for it In the Tiki-Taka thread @hotjam2 makes the point that Vlatko is employing more of a false-nine tactic, potentially an important development (and one which will delight Catarina Macario's fans who think it's tailor-made for her playing style) Vlatko has also been incorporating new players into the roster. That's a topic which needs delving into. After all, a lot of isn't choice, it's forced on him. On the forward line, Press and Heath have been out with long-term injuries and Carli Lloyd retired. In the midfield, as I've been discussing, Ertz and Sam Mewis have been out of the picture. On the backline, Dunn was pregnant, Davidson, Dahlkemper, O'Hara had long-term injuries, and even Sauerbrunn has been sidelined a couple times. It's good that Vlatko has turned into regulars Sophia Smith, Rodman, Ashley Sanchez, Sofia Huerta, Emily Fox, Naomi Girma, and Alana Cook, but he was also forced to find some new regulars and we can still wonder if it should've started BEFORE the Olympics. *** Vlatko's been given a pretty big leeway — for a poor Olympics where we pretty lucky to get the consolation of a bronze medal, for taking a creaking, ailing, injury-prone roster to the Olympics, and for a string of underwhelming recent performances including losing 3 of the last 4 games at the end of last year. Firing Vlatko Now isn't really the question so close to the World Cup BUT there should be some sharp questions coming his way. It's natural. It's normal. The question is why are WoSo Journalists giving him this much of a pass?