Actually, we have vastly outperformed the 100 point Elo home field advantage historically. A few years ago I calculated the implied home field advantage using World Cup Qualifying matches and we had performed much better than expected at home. Most of the Nations had stronger home field advantages throughout CONCACAF than would be expected. So despite the fact that it feels like a road game in the stands when we've played Mexico (or El Salvador, Guatemala, etc..) much of the time, our home field results have been strong. The one directly applicable experience we have is the 1994 World Cup, and we over performed in that one as well.
Yep, the big difference in FIFA vs. Elo is the lack of a home field advantage in FIFA's model. Since we've played almost exclusively at home over the past few years, Elo discounts practically every result, win, lose, or draw, as less impressive than does FIFA.
Also, FIFA does not ding points for KO losses like Elo does. This means that our biggest Elo drop–the two Nations League defeats a year ago–was not accounted for by FIFA, nor was our Gold Cup final loss to Mexico. Speaking of the Gold Cup, Elo does not factor penalty shootouts at all, counting the match as a draw, while FIFA counts a shootout win as 3/4 of a normal/ET win (draw for the loser). So the Costa Rica QF resulted in us *gaining* points in FIFA while *losing* points in Elo.
Well I guess I trust FIFA more than a 70's band even if they were pretty good. I mean what does Jeff Lynne know about rankings?
This almost reads like you think Canada is dodging elite teams, the reality is elite teams have no interest in playing Canada. If you come to North America, you have to play two matches in North America and most of the time top teams choose Mexico and the U.S. for sporting and monetary reasons. Canada would have loved to play a Belgium or a Portugal in March. They weren't interested. Canada went to Europe for one window just to try to get better matches. We did have friendlies with Colombia, Ecuador and Australia in the fall and France and the Netherlands in 2024 (plus Ivory Coast, the US and Mexico and wins against three UEFA playoff teams in 2025) but there aren't that many teams available to play during FIFA windows any more and Canada is no one's first choice. With a significant number of starters missing in the fall and then 10 or 11 players from the World Cup squad unavailable in March, it was probably for the best it was a second-tier test to make the final decisions on the 26, but that wasn't the plan.
Very interesting. Somehow I've never heard him talk before and he's a bit different than most coaches. He should be a definite consideration as the next coach. Should we start a fire Pellegrino thread just to be safe and get a real jump?
He's sure got the Friedel's accent going on. Last interview I saw with him I don't remember whatever vaguely foreign accent he's got here.
Poch is at Fulham v Bournemouth. Clearly a missed opportunity for a round of golf with Carlos Cordeiro at Augusta National.