I am having a helping of crow in this thread, as I said here that if I had to bet, I'd bet on KC winning the cup even though DCU had a better finishing ratio. I should have stuck with my numbers, because if I am correct, they've been remarkably accurate through the first 9 MLS Cups. So what is the finishing ratio? Pretty simple, actually - how many shots does it take a forward to put away a goal. Shots/Goals = Finishing Ratio Why do I think it is important? I believe the finishing ratio is important - especially for forwards - because in a game, and I think especially a big game where there is pressure involved, your forwards only get a certain number of chances. Those forwards who have shown over the course of the season that they put away a higher rate of their shots win. That's my theory. I should have stuck with it. Here's why: Here are the average finishing ratios for the starting forwards for each team in each MLS Cup game. Only once has the team with the starting forwards who had a higher finishing ratio won the game. The other eight Cups, you would have been a smart and richer man had you bet on the team whose starting forwards had a lower finishing ratio: 1996 DCU (Diaz Arce, Moreno) - 5.67 LAG (Hurtado, Karapetyan) - 7.24 1997 COL (Patino, Rammel) - 8.4 DCU (Arce, Moreno) - 4.33 1998 DCU (Lassiter, Moreno) - 5.52 CHI (Kosecki, Razov) - 8.29 1999 DCU (Lassiter, Moreno) - 5.86 LAG (Jones, Hermosillo) - 6.25 2000 CHI (Stoichkov, Razov) - 6.53 KCW (Molnar) - 4.42 2001 SJQ (Cerritos, Donovan) - 5.33 LAG (Hernandez, Jones) - 6.23 2002 NER (Twellman, Harris) - 7.13 LAG (Moreno, Ruiz) - 4.17 2003 SJQ (Donovan, Walker) - 4.46 CHI (Razov, Ralph) - 8.39 2004 DCU (Esky, Moreno) - 5.69 KCW (Arnaud, Wolff) - 6.34 * (I don't know what to do w/ Rammel or A. Moreno, both who hardly played and had no goals in the regular seasons where their respective teams went to the MLS Cup. Oddly enough, both teams lost.) Another disclaimer - these numbers aren't normalized for PKs. If somebody else wants to have at that fun, be my guest. I'd love to see it. So why put this on the analysis section of the US boards? Because I think it crosses over to the US team. The manager of the US team needs forwards who have shown they can finish. It's even better if those forwards have shown that they can finish recently - as in the current or immediately preceeding regular season. If they aren't finishing at a high rate in the MLS regular seaon, where pressure is low and where the games will typically concede more chances on goal than you see in WCQ, the forward doesn't belong. That means Eskandarian could be a very good player for the US, while Ante Razov will always stay on the fringe. I've got the numbers burried somewhere, but I have to run right now. If somebody would like to look at the finishing ratios for the US forwards in the 2004 playing pool and post them here - that'd be great. If not, I'll dig them up when I get back.
Nutmeg, I think you have to make it "shots within a penalty area to goals scored" ratio ... guys like Razov and Ralph will have quite a few attempts on goal from the outside of the box and it's not fair to count this against them as they're creating own opportunities instead of waiting for service like Roy Lassiter or Carlos Ruiz. BTW, another interesting stat would be "goals without an assist".
Re: Finishing Ratios, The MLS Cup [2004 MLS Cup R], and what it may mean for the US T Nutmeg--If I understand this correctly, perhaps you can regurgitate the crow. If 10 shots are taken and 2 are scored, the FR = 5 [10/2 = 5]. If 12 shots are taken and two are scored, the FR = 6 [12/2 = 6]. The larger FR is worse than the smaller FR. Ideally, the number of goals = number of shots = 1.0.
I have a couple of questions about this: 1. Do PKs count in your calculations? 2. Do you have stats for National Team forwards? This seems like a pretty interesting and useful stat. Nice job.
Re: Finishing Ratios, The MLS Cup [2004 MLS Cup R], and what it may mean for the US T You missed. No big deal. Life goes on.
Word. It's been a long couple of days for me. Anyway, it will interesting to see the National Team finishing ratios.
Re: Finishing Ratios, The MLS Cup [2004 MLS Cup R], and what it may mean for the US T Grown Ass Man = 6.25 Noonan = 6.82 Buddle = 5.91 Twellman = 7.77 Eski = 5.8 Freddy = 6.6* Arnaud = 6.78 Wolff = 5.9 Jovan = 7.38 Woly = 5.6 Gaven = 6.57* Ching = 4.25 Landon = 8.5* *midfielder mostly
Re: Finishing Ratios, The MLS Cup [2004 MLS Cup R], and what it may mean for the US T Your starting forward lineup for the USMNT in 2006, Bring Ching and John Wolyinic. 800th post