Discussion in 'Women's International' started by jonny63, Mar 17, 2006.
Is this quite a record of points-loss in a single tournament?
Only Madagascar and American Samoa dropped out of the rankings due to inactivity.
Yeah, it's not going to much of a team
So Spain was a big miss for me - I guess that tune-up 2-0 over Denmark mattered more, but I also maybe mis-calc'd their game against Netherlands since I somewhat missed them (opposite direction) too
Not sure, but I bet Canada 2011 could give them a run for their money
Germany didn't lose all these points at the World Cup. It includes the points lost in the friendlies against Vietnam and Zambia.
Nice coincidence that the ranking was released on 25/8, exactly 50 years after Sweden played their first ever international game.
1-1 v Finland on 25/8 1973.
Highly solid comedy
But, it should be comforting to know the Women's Ranking is hard to game that way!
The US would've needed 18 points to close the gap and retain first. (US now rated 2051, Sweden in first at 2069). Let's look at some back-of-the-envelope examples —
If they tried to make up the difference playing Mexico (rating 1622), playing at home there would be about a 530 point rating difference. If the US won 6-0, they would gain about one point. They would have to play the friendly 18 times (roughly speaking) to make up the gap.
It's better, I suppose, to play top-10 Canada (1945); playing at home would be a 206 point rating difference. If the US won 3-0, they would gain about 6 points (twice the normal amount because they're both top-10 teams). But, roughly speaking, they'd have to do that three times to make up the 18 points. Certainly possible but not too likely.
The jest is still appreciated
I was wondering: the fact that Sweden and Spain are in the same group of the upcoming Nations' League can somehow create the nightmare scenario where they take away points each other until USA gets #1 again?
(Of course, I am assuming Spain actually show up for the games, that's not a given these days; but, however things will go, it's a fact that Spain are ahead of the USA by a mere 0.63 of a point! ).
Results against each other will transfer points between the two, with no change in the combined total.
An exception to that is the 0-0 tie where each team is credited with 0.47 of a win, whereby two evenly rated teams could both lose points(!)
Not when you do it for 23+ years.
But winning FIFA points is not only depending on (win/draw/loss) but also who are your opponents.(and without saying of course the weight of the tournament) :
For comparison, Japan and France each played 5 games :
Japan : 4 wins and 1 loss --> +44 pts
France : 3 wins and 2 draws --> -22 pts
The difference is huge if we just look at the only results.
But France just won points against Brazil and it didn't balance the draw with the low ranked team Jamaica which cost us 28 points. And still France lost few points against Panama (6-3) and Maroc (4-0) where it was needed to win at least 6-0 (to win few points).
Japan won 35 points on one win (4-0 against Spain), 2 close ranked countries.
The right good win at the right time (WC x4) !!
(PS : Australia lost 56 points (!!) against Nigeria at the group stage)
Portugal, 19th, entered the top 20 for the first time, at the expense of Switzeland and just ahead of S.Korea. Portugal confirms its good work and progress .
Let 's see what will happend in the fight against other countries of the very competitve UEFA.
I trust more Portugal than Suisse to stay in the top 20 or even move up the ranking (and They have just 10 points less than Italia )
What does happen, should North Korea actually play the Asian Games 2023 qualifier? It starts in about one week and they didn't officially withdraw yet.
I bet they'll ayway do, so this discussion will reveal purely academical, but should they play, will they be re-inserted in the ranking as if they were a totally new team or will their past be taken into consideration in any way?
The old ranking is used. Team just is set to active again. No points changed by default.
I didn't expect the Bad Korea to be back so soon. I expected Kim Jong-Un to send out an all-transgender team in about 5 to 10 years.
For the record, N.Korea had a rating of 1940 after their last matches. That would currently put them back in the rankings at 11th, about 4pts behind Canada in 10th.
Singapore has a rating of about 1092. Since the Asian Games are not the official continental championship these games will have no multiplier, so even assuming N.Korea wins both games, they won't even gain two points from the group stage and might even lose points if the wins are small; drawing to Singapore would lose them about 7pts per game, and a loss would mean losing all 15pts available per game.
Looking ahead, N.Korea would likely have to win a semifinal match against one of the other top-three AFC nations (not counting AUS since they're not here) if they wanted to break back into the top 10. It is impossible to drop beneath Australia to 12th, though, just based on the Asian Games - we'd have to wait for the AFC OG qualifiers for that.
Well that didn't last long even with all the continuing turmoil in the Spanish camp.
Barring a complete shocker against Switzerland, Spain will become (deservedly) #1
By the way, what's the multiplier for the Nations League matches? Is it 2X (two times a friendly) or 3X (since they're Olympics qualifiers)?
Even if it's 2X, Spain will overtake Sweden. At 2X, my back-of-the-envelope calculation shows Spain gaining about 15 points and Sweden losing 15
Dunno about the multiplier, as I was thinking of that as well... I mentioned the 1-2 flip in the UWNL thread too =-) If we go just by what's already published, this season of the UWNL is an Olympic qualifier, meaning it should be a 3x multiplier... but next season would "only" be a continental qualifier, meaning a 2x multiplier - and it definitely doesn't make sense for the same competition to be worth different multipliers on different seasons, so who the f* knows?
For the record, though - if it's a 3x multiplier, then the "live" rankings should have Sweden back down in 3rd with the USA back up to 2nd!
Nadeshiko Japan basically sent a B-team at the Asian Games (just 1 member of it was in the World Cup's roster), where they won by 8-0 vs Bangladesh on Friday.
On Saturday, just 24 hours later, Japan A-team has beaten Argentina with a similar 8-0 score.
Since, as far as I know, Japan didn't officially declared that they would have sent to the Asian Games a different team from their main one (as a U-23 NT or something of the kind), I suppose both scores will count for the FIFA rankings, even if the games were played by completely different teams at a distance of about 1800 Km on back-to-back days, won't they?
North Korea is officially back. First game played in over three years.
Now they can stop playing again and infest the ranking without playing for three more years.
Well, with CAN handling JAM away fairly easily, PRK isn't going into the top 10 anytime soon (i.e. at least this month) - so we'll have to see how the OG qualifiers go. As long as PRK don't hog a spot in the top 10, I don't mind if they go inactive again.