I'd guess gamebreaking talent like SHM, maybe Kim Min-Jae would tip the scales towards South Korea in a neutral venue but yeah home field advantage is huge in the WC - just ask Korea themselves how they got fourth place that year.
Here's my analysis of the the 64 teams still alive for the 26 FIFA World Cup. I used four sources for rating everyone. 1) transfermarkt.us; 2) fifa.com; 3) eloratings.net; 4) theanalyst.com. I then attempted to reduce them all to a 0-100 scale and average them together into a "Combo Rating". Here is a link to the spreadsheet with three tabs. One has them listed by group, then just the teams ranked by Combo Rating, and finally the Groups ranked by Combo Rating. I tried picking the "best" team from each playoff and plugged them into the overall group rating. Feel free to use, share, modify, etc. I do it for the love of the game! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tjrwKopp9Lx9EaR-xFcHLXyFuH20py_3svwHsWktEw/edit?usp=sharing Here are screenshots to show what it looks like: Groups: All Teams Ranked: Groups Ranked:
I like that you have done this. I will pick matches by kick off time as much as anything else. For me Brazil - Scotland is more interesting than Brazil - Morocco. Scotland are our neighbours and there is something magical about them taking on Brazil.
I found it odd. No one-on-one interviews, mostly just rah-rah team building stuff like putting together big jigsaw puzzles. They check you in at the beginning and at the end tell you to fill out a questionnaire within 48 hours. I left wondering how they know me from the other 250 people who put together jigsaw puzzles. Was the whole thing just to thin out the heard by seeing who would pay $30 to park and spend 3 hours in an auditorium?
I was going to make a joke that they would be charging people to volunteer. However, they have taken $30 from you so the joke isn't funny. You have proven yourself serious enough to turn up and paid a small amount for the privilege. Therefore you will turn up if selected. Time and money invested. That will be the main point of it.
You proved that you can show up on time, follow instructions, and stick around for an entire event. That's the kind of go-get-em attitude they're seeking for their free labor.
The paper I write to take notes. Mexico is just not as good as the rankings or their monetary club value.
Wonder How many of the african qualified teams will keep their job after the AFCON. A bad tournament and their coach is gone. I read the egyptians doesnt like their coach at all. A bad tournament Can get him sacked, and maybe they get a New coach that will make the egyptians more positive towards their results at the WC.
Except I love the game and I would miss it. Resistance can make a difference, see the demise of the super league. And I already do watch less because there are too many games, atmospheres in Premier League games I used to watch on TV are so flat, and international qualifiers are so boring. Additional I’ve lost the Champions League fall stage because it is so predictable and there is no pressure. Some complaining about a relationship is better than just letting it end.
I think that match will have a spectacular atmosphere. But to be honest I think Brasil is going to pound them into the South Florida ground as a sea of yellow and green do Samba in the stands.
There is a good chance Scotland will know that they must grab a point or at least keep their goal difference respectable. They may have a cruel 3 day wait watching other matches to see what the cut off is for qualifying from 3rd position. It would be in keeping with Scotland's tournament history to go out on goal difference. I hope not and I think it will be an entertaining match. It will be on too late for me to watch live. I'll watch the highlights in the morning.
Not a bad way to conglomerate a rating for each team. Only one problem: it assumes that the "best" team will win each playoff. I.e., the UEFA Path A winner will most likely be Italy, so you make Path A's rating that of Italy. But upsets happen. As an alternative you could rate the playoff paths based on weighing likelihoods of victory. E.g., Path A rating would be (Italy's rating x Italy's chance of winning the playoff, plus Wales rating x Wales chance of winning the playoff, plus...). Use ELO to determine wining chances (there's a formula).
Unless I'm looking at something wrong, looks like Scotland - Brazil will meet on the first day that teams play their final group match. With 10 groups still having to play their last round of matches, Scotland will have to guess what is needed to advance as one of the best 3rd-place finishers.
My theory is that home advantage decreases with each passing WC as sport gets globalized, players are scattered all over the place for their clubs, VAR reduces some refereeing bias, travel becomes increasingly more comfortable, etc. Korea in 2002 was really the last WC host team to outperform by a lot. Whereas before 2002, you'd expect the home team to outperform by a lot.
Korea has the top 3 talent on the field in a Korea vs Mexico matchup. However, collectively as a nation in Korea - fans and soccer pundits united together - we've been very critical of the team and mainly the head coach. It's not out of the realm of possibility for Korea to lose all 3... It's been THAT disappointing. The only saving grace here is... Mexico has equally been disappointing lately... All the Koreans, including me, are hoping for Korea to lose to Mexico and win the other two games and make it through as the 2nd seed anyway... As the 2nd seed, their R32 game would be in LA... which would feel like a home field match vs 2nd seed from group B... possibly Canada. We'll take that.
Knowing Scotland they'll heroically defeat Brazil after losing to Haiti and getting a shellacking from Morocco.
Still lots of weird home field advantage stuff happening after 2002 That Fred PK in the opening match of 2014 Brazil vs Croatia... Colombians were furious with the way the quarterfinal was reffed... Tho they did get to break Neymar's back... And Thiago Silva got that dumb yellow card that put him out of the semi with Germany. Russia was reported to have the most km covered per game weirdly as if enhanced. Russia took out Spain... Ref doing a ghost penalty for France's opening free kick goal vs Croatia. And the handball against Perisic... What intent lol ... Argentina had a lot of pks (sorry brother no offense). Whistle blower in Qatar saying they were suppose to score in the second half and beat Ecuador turned into a home field disadvantage lol... I'm sure Qatar will outperform this world cup. USA's largest base in the middle East is in Qatar. I feel USA and/or Canada and/or Mexico will outperform. Friends of USA too... Japan... Korea ... Australia... England. That Mali ref in 2010 took away 2? Goals from the USA. Still remember Robben's dive vs Mexico as it happened right in front of me. They gonna want some compensation. Watch the 30/30 ESPN film and the Colombians complaining their families were kidnapped and on video on their TVs before the game with USA in 94... Lol but not lol Weird things happen during the world cup. Cruyff was threatened with kidnapping before 78. Ronaldo had a seizure before the Final in 98. Sterling got his house invaded before the qf with France in 22. That's how important this event is. Advantage happens outside of the stadium too. Then the refs not calling fouls or over calling fouls. Using VAR and not using VAR. It's easy to manipulate... But fun to watch the drama. The best team may or may not win hehe. I was rooting for Argentina in 22 glad the best player of my generation got to lift it. Sorry for wall of text
Dunno how many of guys have been to the Azteca. That place was the definition of homefield advantage for international soccer. I heard you used to be in a cage and the fans would throw bags of shit and piss your way lol. Of course that wouldn't happen at a world cup.
Saudi Arabia should also get some good calls by the refs / do good as they are also a friendly nation.
I'm working on the basis that 3 points with goal difference will be the cut off for qualification in 3rd place. I checked the last 3 Euros, with 24 teams, and some teams always qualified with 3 points and some always went home on GD and 3 points. Could be different at the World Cup but I doubt it, and I expect more extreme GD. If Scotland, or anyone else, goes into their last match on 3 points they will need 1 point to go through. If they can't get that point they need to keep goals conceded down. It also means that you can go into the last group game with 0 points and still have a chance of qualifying, with a good win.
Scotland want to have 4pts going into that last game and anything less than a win, even if it’s just 1-0 against Haiti, will be a bad result in the context of what’s to come. I suppose you might scrape through with 3pts and a 0 GD after 3 draws……..but not likely Scotland will feature in high scoring draws for any GS advantage.
KC was the hardest place to find any well located or priced, in terms of downtown, accommodation. And now the place we are booked at, out of town, is 4x per night what I booked it at! So, unless that changes, I’m staying there and driving. Not sure I can be bothered with faffing with shuttle buses at 11pm, particularly if not staying downtown, anyway.